Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players at his position in action today. Then we have ‘OPPz’ which is how far above or below average the player’s matchup is. Quality of matchup is determined with a mix of Corsi against and save percentage of the team the player will be facing. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from numberfire.com’s rest-of-season projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players at the position in action today. ‘zTOTAL’ is the player’s projection z-score combined with his matchup z-score. And then ‘zDIFF’ is zTOTAL minus the player’s salary z-score. The zDIFF column is really what we’re looking at.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Stack Options

I usually calculate my matchup statistic by looking at what each team has done all season, but today I just looked at the last 45 days. I really just wanted to see if any teams were playing noticeably better or worse recently. Vancouver and Colorado have gone from an above average matchup for opposing skaters to a decidedly below average matchup in the last 45 days. And Buffalo also hasn’t been as good of a matchup recently. They’re still an above average matchup, but they’re not one of the elite matchups anymore. On the other side, Pittsburgh and Florida have gone from a bad matchup to an average one, and Anaheim has gone from an average matchup to a good one.

But one thing that hasn’t changed is Edmonton being the best matchup by a wide margin. In fact, the margin has widened. Relative to average, Edmonton is a bit worse over the last 45 days than they are for the full season. And with Buffalo playing better, the second best matchup (now Arizona) isn’t as good as it used to be.

The Avalanche draw the Oilers tonight, and they provide us with a couple of options. The first options is the first line pairing of Matt Duchene ($5,100, C) and Nathan MacKinnon ($6,100, C) who also play on the top power play unit together. The other option comes from the third line. The top value grade at any position today belongs to Alex Tanguay ($2,700, W) who continues to be criminally underpriced as he lead the Avs in scoring yet is barely priced above the minimum. He’s joined on the third line by the best second best value among wingers, Jarome Iginla ($5,100, W), and the best value among centers, John Mitchell ($2,500, C). It’s tough to choose between the two lines because Mitchell isn’t great and the third line doesn’t play on the PP together. But Iginla and Tanguay have outscored Duchene and MacKinnon this year. I’ll probably end up qith exposure to both Duchene/MacKinnon and Iginla/Tanguay.

Tne next best matchup belongs to Toronto against Minnesota. Minnesota is tied with Edmonton for the worst goaltending both for the full season and the last 45 days. But for the season Minnesota has been an elite possession team. However, over the last 45 days they’ve slipped to just an average possession team. Again, choosing which line to go with is a bit of a tough choice, but I’m going with the top line. Center Tyler Bozak ($5,100, C) has the best value grade of any Maple Leaf, and he and his two wingers are top three on the team in scoring. Feel free to stack him with both Phil Kessel ($7,500, W) and James van Riemsdyk ($7,100, W). But I prefer just stacking a pair of guys together as opposed to the whole trio, and stacking all three of them would put a dent in your budget. Kessel has the better projection and better value grade, so I’m going with Bozak/Kessel. If you’re looking for a cheaper stack, I really like the value of Daniel Winnik ($2,600, W), and you can pair him with his center, Nazem Kadri ($5,000, C).

Toronto is a pretty good matchup for opposing skaters as well, so that game may be a bit of a shootout. I like the value of second line wingers Nino Niederreiter ($3,600, W) and Thomas Vanek ($4,900, W). But they’re value grades are just good, not spectacular, and I prefer to have a center in a stack if possible. The only above average center in Minnesota is first line center Mikko Koivu ($4,600, C). I’ll pair Koivu with his right winger, Jason Pominville ($6,600, W). That pair also plays together on the top PP unit. I obviously think Zach Parise ($8,800, W) is great and have him in a lineup or two. If you’re going to spend big on a player today, it’s Parise or Kessel.

Philadelphia and St. Louis are the other teams with well above average matchups today against Carolina and Anaheim, respectively. For the Flyers I like a stack of Brayden Schenn ($4,300, C) and Wayne Simmonds ($5,200, W). For the Blues, I like Jori Lehtera ($3,200, C) and Vladimir Tarasenko ($5,900, W).

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center

Winger

Defense

Goalie

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check Daily Faceoff for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.