Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings for DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players at his position in action today. Then we have ‘OPPz’ which is how far above or below average the player’s matchup is. Quality of matchup is determined with a mix of Corsi against and save percentage of the team the player will be facing. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from numberfire.com’s rest-of-season projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players at the position in action today. ‘zTOTAL’ is the player’s projection z-score combined with his matchup z-score. And then ‘zDIFF’ is zTOTAL minus the player’s salary z-score. The zDIFF column is really what we’re looking at.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news and line changes, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Stack Options

There was a period this season where the Buffalo Sabres weren’t the most favorable matchup for opposing skaters. They’ve certainly been an above average matchup all year, but they were getting above average goaltending for awhile, which covered up their league-worst possession numbers. But over the last 45 days the Sabres have the eighth worst save percentage in the league. Coupled with their historically horrendous possession numbers, that makes for a great matchup for opposing skaters.

Unfortunately, the team facing Buffalo tonight is Carolina, who has scored the fewest goals in the league over the last 45 days by a significant margin. Their 27 goals in their last 19 games are nine fewer than the next lowest scoring team. Woof. They have been a positive possession team over that span, but the lack of goals is a problem. You can use some Hurricanes tonight, but be careful not to over-invest.

The pair I like most is the Staal brothers, Eric Staal ($6,700, C) and Jordan Staal ($3,200, C), who play on the first line and top power play unit together. I also like the other first line winger, Elias Lindholm ($3,600,C), but all three are centers on DraftKings, so using all three together limits your options filling out the rest of your roster. Nathan Gerbe ($2,800, W) grades out as the top value of any forward today, and he could be stacked with Jiri Tlusty ($4,100, W) if you’re looking for a super-cheap mini-stack.

The other really, really good matchup of the day belongs to the Chicago Blackhawks against the Minnesota Wild. On Tuesday night, Chicago put up a stupid 54 shots against Colorado, and Semyon Varlamov stopped every single one of them. That’s pretty much Colorado’s M.O. Over the last 45 days, the Avs are sixth worst in Corsi against but have the third best save percentage. The Wild are a totally different story. They’re an almost exactly average possession team, but their .893 save percentage over the last 45 days is the worst in the league. Chicago leads the league in Corsi For Total at even strength this year, so we have the highest volume shooting team in the league against the team with the worst goaltending. This could get ugly, and today is definitely a day to pay up for Hawks. Hopefully their weird shutout last game will scare some dumb people off, but I doubt it.

Both of the top two Chicago lines are in play. The value play is the Toews line with Jonathan Toews ($5,600, C), Marian Hossa ($5,700, W) and Brandon Saad ($4,900, W). If you just want a Chicago mini-stack for a cash game, Toews/Hossa makes the most sense from a value persepctive. Chicago’s “second” line has their two stud wingers on it, Patrick Kane ($8,700, W) and Patrick Sharp ($8,500, W), centered by Brad Richards ($5,200, C). It’s going to be really hard to fit Kane and Sharp into the same lineup. I’m going to have multiple lineups, so I’ll have exposure to both. But if you’re just making one lineup, I guess I prefer Kane to Sharp but not by much. Brent Seabrook ($4,700, D) and Duncan Keith ($5,700, D) are in play on the blue line as well. Seabrook plays on the power play with Hossa and Richards, and Keith plays on the top unit with Toews, Kane and Sharp.

After those two matchups there is a bit of a drop off, but one other team has a matchup that is a cut above the remaining matchups, even if it’s not quite as good as the matchups for Carolina and Chicago.

The matchup belongs to Winnipeg against Arizona, who got torched by St. Louis on Tuesday. Well, they mainly got torched by David Backes and his four goals.  Both of the Jets’ top lines are in play as well. For the Jets the value is on their second line which is Mark Scheifele ($3,600, C), Mathieu Perreault ($3,900, C) and Michael Frolik ($4,300, W). If you’re just looking for a value mini-stack to pair with expensive Blackhawks, go with Scheifele/Frolik who play on the second power play unit together. But the most upside belongs to the higher scoring first line of Bryan Little ($5,800, C), Blake Wheeler ($6,300, W) and Andrew Ladd ($6,400, W). if you use the first line, feel free to use defenseman-classified-as-winger Dustin Byfuglien ($6,200, W) who plays on the top power play unit with the first line.

Aside from bingeing on the teams listed above, there are a few other stacks I like. From San Jose, Joe Pavelski ($8,200, C), Logan Couture ($7,600, C) and Brent Burns ($6,000, D). From Colorado, Alex Tanguay ($2,700, W) and Jarome Iginla ($4,800, W). And from St. Louis, Jori Lehtera ($3,100, C), Vladimir Tarasenko ($5,800, W) and Jay Bouwmeester ($3,000, D).

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center

Winger

Defense

Goalie

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check Daily Faceoff for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.