Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for tonight’s DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from my own Marcel-like projection system. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘zDIFF’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

I believe it was last Tuesday where we didn’t have a lot of bad defensive teams in action and things got kind of screwy. With just three of the 14 teams in action today grading out as good matchups for opposing skaters, today could get screwy as well. If you base how much money you play based on how you feel about the slate, tonight might be a night to shoot for the low end of your range.

The best matchup of the day belongs to Tampa Bay in Toronto. Normally it would worry me a bit that Tampa played in Montreal last night, but their matchup against the Leafs and James Reimer is far and away better than any other team’s matchup. Plus, Tampa has one of the league’s better offenses, so it’s hard to fade them in this matchup.

Aside from playing for the second night in a row, the other problem with the Bolts is that it’s almost impossible for me to tell you what their line combos are going to be. Tyler Johnson ($5,300, C) didn’t play last night, but as of this writing he was a possibility to play tonight. If he plays, I assume the lines look fairly normal with Johnson back between Nikita Kucherov ($4,500, W) and Ondrej Palat ($5,100, W) on the second line. If Johnson is out, Valtteri Filppula ($3,400, C) probably centers the top line again, but if Johnson is back, Filppula probably goes back to the third line.

Let’s say Johnson sits again. If he does, Filppula is very cheap and makes it pretty easy to get Steven Stamkos ($8,900, C) in your lineup if you pair the two. If Johnson is in, Stamkos likely goes back to centering the top line and you can pair him with Alex Killorn ($3,900, W). In fact, you could use Killorn with Stamkos even if Filppula centers the line, or you could use all three together. On the second line, I prefer pairing Johnson with Kucherov if Johnson is in. But if Johnson sits, I’d pair Kucherov and Palat together. On the blue line, Victor Hedman ($5,400, D) is a nice value, but he left last night’s game in the third period and is questionable to play tonight.

After the Bolts, there are five to seven teams that are somewhat hard to distinguish, but I’m leaning toward some home teams in that range, Washington hosting Carolina, Detroit hosting Ottawa, and Nashville hosting Vancouver (who played last night).

For the Caps, I want Alex Ovechkin ($9,300, W) and whoever centers his line. Hopefully it’s Nicklas Backstrom ($5,100, C) and his price tag that continues to be criminally low as long as he’s playing with Ovi. The problem is that he didn’t play with Ovi in their last game. Instead it was Evgeny Kuznetsov ($3,900, C) centering the top line. John Carlson ($6,500, D) could be paired with Ovechkin and (insert center here).

Both of Detroit’s top two lines are options and are chock full of value tonight. From the top line I like Henrik Zetterberg ($5,700, C) with Gustav Nyquist ($4,900, W) as Justin Abdelkader ($5,100, W) is the only top six forward whose price tag I don’t like. On the second line, Pavel Datsyuk ($5,200, C), Tomas Tatar ($5,100, W) and Darren Helm ($3,500, C) are all great values. Datsyuk/Tatar is the preferred mini-stack, but Helm can be used for salary relief either with Datsyuk or by using the whole line together.

And finally, from the Predators I’m leaning towards Mike Fisher ($4,900, C) and Colin Wilson ($3,700, C) who are nice values. Seth Jones ($3,300, D) is also a great value on the blue line if Shea Weber sits again and Jones keeps seeing power play time. Even if Weber returns, it could be Ryan Ellis that loses power play time. Top line wingers Filip Forsberg ($5,200, W) and Craig Smith ($4,600, C) are also an option, but Fisher/Wilson represent better value.

Player Rankings

Mini-Stacks

1. Nicklas Backstrom*/Alex Ovechkin – Washington Capitals
2. Pavel Datsyuk/Tomas Tatar – Detroit Red Wings
3. Steven Stamkos/Alex Killorn – Tampa Bay Lightning
4. Henrik Zetterberg/Gustav Nyquist – Detroit Red Wings
5. Tyler Johnson**/Nikita Kucherov – Tampa Bay Lightning
6. Mike Fisher/Colin Wilson – Nashville Predators
7. Bobby Ryan/Mike Hoffman*** – Ottawa Senators

*If Kuznetsov is centering Ovechkin, I’d have that pairing ranked third.
**Johnson didn’t play last night, so make sure he’s in the lineup and back with his normal wingers, Kucherov and Palat. If he’s out again, you can use Kucherov and Palat together.
***Hoffman was relegated to a depth line last game, but he bounces back and forth between the top line and the depth lines. Check line combos this afternoon to see where he’s playing tonight.

Defense

1. Victor Hedman – $5,400 – Tampa Bay Lightning
2. Seth Jones – $3,300 – Nashville Predators
3. John Carlson – $6,500 – Washington Capitals
4. Ryan McDonagh – $4,800 – New York Rangers
5. Niklas Kronwall – $4,300 – Detroit Red Wings

Goalies

1. Braden Holtby – $8,300 – Washington Capitals
2. Ben Bishop – $8,000 – Tampa Bay Lightning
3. Andrei Vasilevskiy* – $7,300 – Tampa Bay Lightning
4. Niklas Svedberg* – $7,000 – Boston Bruins
5. Tuukka Rask – $8,700 – Boston Bruins
6. Eddie Lack – $7,100 – Vancouver Canucks

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.