This weekend will feature a boat-load of variance, thanks to track conditions that are expected to be highly different from those that drivers experienced during Happy Hour. Unfortunately, the weather is expected to be 80 degrees at the time of the green flag, with a chance of rain as well. 

Tomorrow is a low volume day for me, due to the aforementioned likely variance, but one car i do like is the 1 car of Jamie McMurray ($9,900). His McDonald’s Chip Ganassi Chevy has been one of the better cars on the circuit for quite a while, and he laid down a few really good fast laps in practice. Plus, McMurray is 7th in overall NASCAR Sprint Cup Points Standings, but does not yet have a win, which he needs in able to qualify for the Chase for the Championship.

It is for that reason, that in a race that will likely be dominated by strategy and changing conditions, that I feel confident in taking McMurray because he’s a great candidate for a fuel mileage or strategy gamble. He’ll roll off on the 2nd half of the scoring monitor (25th position), so he’s an excellent candidate for passing points, as well.

Others:

I’m done betting against Martin Truex Jr ($11,500) and the #78 Furniture Row Motorsports team. They are the hottest driver/crew-chief/owner tandem in the sport right now, as Truex has led the most laps in all of the past four races. He was insanely fast (and consistent) in final practice. He’s a no-brainer……. However, if you want an against the grain pick, Jimmie Johnson ($13,000) would likely be a good pick as your high priced driver. Crew-Chief Chad Knaus is unquestionably the best crew-chief when it comes to changing track conditions.

FADE Kasey Kahne ( $10,800 ). There’s no better time to lay off a pole-sitter, than when a track is expected to change dramatically. Throw in possible rain and multiple cautions, and he’s an extremely easy fade.

Jeff Gordon, and Kyle Busch are much more interesting around that price point.

Busch needs to win a race to even think about being chase eligible, thanks to his waiver granted to him by NASCAR. He’s a fantastic driver, was fast in practice, fantastic at handling his car in any conditions, and a candidate for strategy boosts. He’s a GPP only play though, due to his over-aggressive style at times.

Gordon still needs a win, in what will be his final season over an illustrious Sprint Cup career. He was fastest in final practice, and is another strategy contestant. He’ll roll off 6th.

FADE: Ryan Blaney ($9,100) – The talented youngster has simply no upside rolling off in the fifth position for the Wood Brothers and their #21 gold/red/white iconic Ford.

Value Plays:

AJ Allmendinger ( $7,800 ) and Clint Bowyer ( $8,700 )

Bowyer has had a horrible car all weekend, but that’s a good race team. He’s a lightning in a bottle GPP play, since he rolls off 32nd on the starting grid for Michael Waltrip Racing, and could find handling and or speed with the expected track condition changes.

Allmendinger ran the 11th fastest “last lap” at the end of practice, and his car has been pretty solid all weekend. He’s a good driver in search of some consistency.  He’ll start 31st.

I’ll be using both of these drivers in quite a few lineups.

VARY your lineups this weekend. It should be crazy and fun.