2010 Fantasy Baseball’s Second Half Ranks: Closers
Mariano Rivera – New York Yankees
Heath Bell – San Diego Padres
Jonathan Papelbon – Boston Red Sox
These top relievers are the same pitchers season after season who continue to be worth every penny for owners who draft them early. Mo Rivera may pitch until he’s 100-years old, but is still the best in the game, and having Kerry Wood help deliver a lead to Mo in the ninth makes him even better.
Although Heath Bell is involved in trade rumors every season, he continues to be the backbone of a strong bullpen in San Diego, as they push towards a division title.
Don’t be freaked out by Jonathan Papelbon being placed on waivers earlier this week, as most players are during this time of the year. “Cinco Ocho” hasn’t posted the strikeout numbers we’ve all wanted in 2010, but he’s still racking up the save numbers and has been one of the top closers over the past four seasons.
Tier-Two
Jonathan Broxton – Los Angeles Dodgers
Brian Wilson – San Francisco Giants
Carlos Marmol – Chicago Cubs
Joakim Soria – Kansas City Royals
Billy Wagner – Atlanta Braves
Jose Valverde – Detroit Tigers
Neftali Feliz – Texas Rangers
Rafeal Soriano – Tampa Bay Rays
The tier-two guys contain a mixture of all reliable closers who have job security. Jonathan Broxton is certainly capable of cracking the tier-one group, but after posting a disastrous month of July, his value is down right now. Since the All Star break, Broxton has posted an ERA of 9.00 and has only struck out 4.5 batters per nine innings (K/9 ratio). The recent poor results make you wonder if the big guy is dealing with some type of injury. The Dodgers brought in Octavio Dotel during the trade deadline, but he won’t pose a threat to Broxton unless he goes down with an injury. Dotel was just brought in because of Dodgers’ manager Joe Torre’s love affair with ex-Yankee players.
Brian Wilson dealt with some small back issues in the beginning of August, but appears to be fine and still remains an undervalued closer.
The only bright spot with the Chicago Cubs this season is Marlon Byrd’s defense and the strikeouts from Carlos Marmol (16.8 K/9 this season!).
Injuries were the concern with Billy Wagner this off-season for fantasy owners, but those who took a gamble on the left-hander during the late rounds have certainly been rewarded. Wagner and the rest of the Braves’ bullpen have lifted Atlanta into a division lead showing the Phillies that not everything revolves around offense.
Rafael Soriano leads the American League in saves with 31 and is also posting a 0.89 WHIP this season. He doesn’t have high strikeout totals like the rest of this group (36 strikeouts in 43 2/3 innings) but doesn’t walk many hitters and has only surrendered three home runs.
Things just keep getting better for the Texas Rangers and Neftali Feliz this season. The lights-out fireballer has taken the closer’s role and ran with it, striking out everyone in his way. Feliz’s ERA at home is a high 5.06 this season (thanks to the Ballpark in Arlington) but on the road, Feliz has posted a 1.45 ERA and currently sits in third place in the American League with 29 saves.
Francisco Rodriguez – New York Mets
Leo Nunez – Florida Marlins
Matt Capps – Minnesota Twins
Huston Street – Colorado Rockies
Andrew Bailey – Oakland Athletics
The original “K-Rod” has bounced back nicely this season during his second year with the New York Mets. He’s posting better numbers across all categories this season, and could climb into the tier-two section during the final month of play. The fantasy value for Rodriguez has slipped over the past two seasons due to the inability of the Mets to produce save opportunities.
With questions around Leo Nunez’s job security earlier this season, he’s proved that he’s the man down in Miami. Nunez has allowed just one home run and walked 11 batters over 44 1/3 innings this season. With 26 saves already in the books this year, Nunez has matched his career high in saves (26 with the Marlins in 2009).
The Minnesota Twins felt that Jon Rauch was not capable of closing games this season and went out and acquired Matt Capps during the trade deadline. Capps has bounced back this season after an unlucky 2009 in Pittsburgh. Capps is an above-average reliever who posts low strikeout totals (7.4 K/9) and has spent time closing against subpar National League hitters to this point. The move to the American League will truly be a test for Capps, as the NL East doesn’t have Miguel Cabrera types.
Huston Street and Andrew Bailey when healthy are reliable arms during the ninth inning, but both pitchers have struggled with the injury-bug this season. With not many reliable closing options on their teams, both will continue to see save opportunities.
Tier-Four
Brian Fuentes – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Ryan Franklin – St. Louis Cardinals
Bobby Jenks – Chicago White Sox
Francisco Cordero – Cincinnati Reds
Brad Lidge – Philadelphia Phillies
Matt Lindstrom – Houston Astros
Brian Fuentes and the Angels are fading fast in the American League West standings. Fuentes will continue to close in the ninth, but doesn’t post “wow” numbers. He posted better numbers during the month of July (1.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP) but continues to have the tendency to give up too many walks and home runs.
Prior to the 2010 season, I warned fantasy owners about Ryan Franklin. He uses the magical illusion of smoke and mirrors to deceive fantasy owners into thinking he is a top closer when in fact, he’s not. Franklin has a 25/6 K/BB rate over 42 2/3 innings and left-handed hitters have a stat line of .303/.333/.515 against him this season, making him avoidable. Manager Tony LaRussa is also known for riding the hot hand and playing the matchups, so if Franklin fades down the stretch, so could his save opportunities.
Brad Lidge this season has been inconsistent, but the Phillies are really left with no other options during the ninth inning, so look for manager Charlie Manuel to stick with Lidge.
David Aardsma – Seattle Mariners
Chris Perez – Cleveland Indians
Kevin Gregg – Toronto Blue Jays
John Axford – Milwaukee Brewers
Joel Hanrahan – Pittsburgh Pirates
Drew Storen – Washington Nationals
Alfredo Simon – Baltimore Orioles
Aaron Heilman – Arizona Diamondbacks
David Aardsma – see above under Ryan Franklin. Aarsdma has blown four saves this season and has also walked 16 batters over 34 1/3 innings. With the chances of the Mariners actually having a lead during the ninth inning slim, Aardsma has little fantasy appeal.
Chris Perez finally ends up where he belongs – pitching in the ninth and closing out games, but too bad it’s for the Cleveland Indians. With Kerry Wood leaving via a trade, Perez controls his own destiny and is a viable fantasy option for cheap saves the rest of the season.
Prior to Trevor Hoffman imploding back in May, most knew little or nothing about John Axford. With little bullpen relief on the Brewers, Axford was given the job and hasn’t looked back since. Yes, Axford has the unknown factor surrounding his name, but with a sweet mustache and a 10.8 K/9 ratio this season, he’s a reliable bottom tier closer.
With Octavio Dotel leaving for Los Angeles, Joel Hanrahan takes over the closer duties for the Bucs. It was a toss up for the ninth inning job between Hanrahan and All Star Evan Meek, but with Hanrahan owning more ninth inning experience, the Pirates will roll the dice with Joel. Hanrahan will have the same value as Dotel did when he was closing games for Pittsburgh, but fantasy owners shouldn’t be afraid to own either Meek or Hanrahan.
The Drew Storen era is officially set to begin in Washington. The Nationals have stated that they will use a closer committee role the rest of the season with Storen, Tyler Clippard, and Sean Burnett, but Storen is your guy long term. Tyler Clippard posted horrible July numbers with a 7.90 ERA during 12 appearances. Clippard has already logged over 62 innings this season which is a career high for him, so fatigue could be playing a factor. Burnett, a former first round pick for the Pirates, is holding right-handed hitters to just a .174/.245/.209 stat line over 86 at-bats this season, while lefties are hitting .302/.371/.476 over 63 at-bats. Oh year, Burnett has a career 6.71 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP from the month of August until the end of the season. Take in this order: Storen, Clippard, and Burnett.
Orioles’ manager Buck Showalter didn’t fool around with the bullpen during his fist game on Tuesday evening. Mike Gonzalez recorded the first two outs during the ninth before being replaced by Alfredo Simon, who recorded the final out for the save. With the Orioles having nothing to lose by trotting Simon out there, the whole closing situation in Baltimore is a toss-up. Gonzalez wants to pitch in the ninth inning badly and appears to have regained the velocity on his fastball which has been missing all season, so anything can happen. Be warned.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are in shambles this season, and the bullpen isn’t exempt from the mess. In one of my earlier pieces, I wrote that Juan Gutierrez was the favorite to earn save opportunities for Arizona given the recent failures of Chad Qualls and Aaron Heilman. With Qualls leaving for sunny Florida, D-backs’ manager Kirk Gibson was still reluctant to name a closer. With Gutierrez hitting the disabled-list with a right shoulder injury, it’s Heilman’s turn on the carousel. I also like rookie Sam Demel as a potential replacement for Gutierrez, as he’s posted 21/5 K/BB over 20 1/3 innings.
– All statistical data provided via Baseball-Reference.com
Reggie Yinger is the Senior Editor at Baseball Press and his writing has appeared in a men's national magazine publication. He also contributes exclusive writings to The Fantasy Fix. You can contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter @sacksjacked.
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Closers, Relief Pitchers, Reggie Yinger