2010 Fantasy Football Draft: A Strategy For Draft Day Success

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· September 5, 2010

Jamaal Charles

We all get a little nervous/excited about draft day, we want the best team, we want everyone else to fear the juggernaut we’ve created. But take a step back, yes, you want the best team possible, but if you’ve played before, you know that the league is rarely won or lost on draft day (even subpar seasons from first rounders like Michael Turner and Ladainian Tomlinson weren’t so traumatic that you couldn’t recover).

Inevitably it is the person that grabs Jamaal Charles, Jerome Harrison, Miles Austin or Brett Favre that ends up winning the league. So if things don’t go your way on draft day, take a deep breath and prepare for the right waiver wire moves and trades. That being said, here’s a roadmap to killing a draft:

A few rules.

First, figure out your draft number and determine where you will be drafting in all the rounds. This way you’ll have a rough idea of what will be out there in the later rounds (6, 7, etc.), so if you miss a running back in the 5th, you’ll know you can wait and grab someone you like later.

Second, know your draft platform. There are huge differences in the rankings between Yahoo, ESPN, etc. If you are online, it’s likely that the drafters will just basically follow those rankings; if you are using something different be prepared for a guy you view as a 6th round sleeper going in the 4th.

Vernon Davis

Third, this is just a personal preference, but I tend to wait on Tight Ends (unless it is a PPR league then a guy like Dallas Clark is basically a receiver). Look at last year who had Vernon Davis, Owen Daniels (before his injury), Brent Celek, and Visanthe Shiancoe having big years? You probably could’ve grabbed any of them off waivers.

Fourth, check for any recent injury news, you don’t want to be the guy that grabs Ben Tate and then has to promise his buddies beer for life for a mulligan.

Finally, and you’ve probably heard this before FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, NO KICKERS BEFORE THE LAST ROUND!!!! You don’t want to be mocked for picking Matt Stover in the FOURTH ROUND (cough, Pete, cough) and kickers are all the same.

Andre Johnson

Round One:

As mentioned in a previous article, the number one back is a dying breed – if you can grab one DO IT!. If not, your best option is Andre Johnson. But, if you are in a six point per TD pass league, Drew Brees and Aaron Rogers are solid selections.

Note: Be wary of MJD, he says he’s going to play game one, but the mysterious nature of his knee injury has to be taken into account.

Round Two:

Really, a best available player strategy here. For my money, I like the receivers more than the running backs (Reggie Wayne, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald vs. Cedric Benson, Rashard Mendenhall, Shonn Greene, Ryan Grant, DeAngelo Williams).

I just see a lot of question marks with those backs and the wide receiver class is thin, so best to get what you can early. At this point in all my drafts I have a running back and wide receiver.

Round Three:

Depending on your league settings you can look for a QB (Peyton Manning or Tom Brady), but given the steep fall off in talent after the top 50 players, I'd advise waiting until the fourth round before looking at a QB. So in this third round grab the best available at RB or WR. Shonn Greene (if he falls), Ryan Grant (fell to me in the 3rd round of a recent draft), Jamaal Charles, DeSean Jackson (worried about how fragile he is and he reliance on big plays), Calvin Johnson or Greg Jennings.

Round Four:

This round and the next were the toughest for me. I look at this years’ draft as having a steep drop after the top seven QB's (Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub)

If one of these guys is here, it might be time to grab them because they might not be there in the 5th round (Please note, I’ve waited in two leagues and grabbed Romo and Schaub in the mid 40’s).

Quick tip, before you pick in the fourth round take a look at rosters of the teams picking behind you? If they all have a QB or if there are more quality QB’s on the board than people that need them you can wait.

I say all of this because there is a lot of potential talent in this round at RB and WR and you don’t want to miss out. If you don’t pick a QB, keep building depth; if you need a running back look for Pierre Thomas, Jamaal Charles or Jonathon Stewart, or Joseph Addai. If a WR: Greg Jennings, Marques Colston, Steve Smith (either) or Anquan Boldin. By this point I want to have two RB’s and two WR’s.

Arian Foster

5th round:

If one of those top QB's has dropped, grab tem. If not, get ready for a surprising amount of depth in the RB’s (fifth and eigth rounds) and WR (sixth and seventh rounds) over the next few rounds and plan accordingly.

In the fifth you are probably looking at Matt Forte, Arian Foster, Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams (note, Brown and Williams have been dropping huge in drafts – last night I got Ricky Williams in the eigth. That’s a running team, I know they split carries, but as a third back, come on). WR: Mike Sims-Walker, Michael Crabtree.

6th Round:

If no QB at this point consider grabbing Joe Flacco. You are probably safe waiting until the seventh, but you have to gauge your draft. In the sixth at wide receiver: Dwayne Bowe, Donald Driver, Hines Ward, or Percy Harvin (high risk, high reward with him). RB: Justin Forsett, Felix Jones, Jerome Harrison (Hardesty blown ACL, welcome to the party Jerome).

7th Round:

If no QB, grab Flacco, he’ll give you tons of yards and if he improves on those TD’s he could be a next level guy. At running back look at Marion Barber and CJ Spiller (his stock is rising, so he probably won’t be here). If you need a wide receiver (Sneaky depth here): Jeremy Maclin, Wes Welker (he’ll probably be going earlier now), Hakeem Nicks, or Pierre Garcon. Definitely a round to target a wide receiver, so plan accordingly. .

8th round:

In this round you can look for any Tight Ends that have fallen (unlikely that you can get them), a Jermichael Finley, Brent Celek or Jason Witten are good values here, especially if you've killed it at the beginning.

At running back, Ahmad Bradshaw (Brandon Jacobs now runs like Hurley from lost) or Clinton Portis and Michael Bush (assuming his broken hand isn't that serious).

If you need a WR, Mike Wallace, Santana Moss, TJ Houshmandzadeh. Also, if' you've completely whiffed on the QB, don't panic you can still grab Eli Manning or Jay Cutler. Not the sexy picks you want, but if you are grabbing them you've hopefully developed good depth at other positions. But, if you are grabbing these guys you probably want a backup QB later in the draft to play matchups (Matt Ryan, Chad Henne, and if he slips Kevin Kolb).

Brent Celek

9th Round:

Look for a TE that has dropped (Celek, Finley or Witten) or you can grab Kellen Winslow. I know, like Lindsay Lohan in rehab, he’s perpetually on the injury list, but he produces when on the field and who else are they going to throw to?

If you don’t like the TE options continue building depth, Thomas Jones, Steve Breaston, Bernard Berrian, Robert Meachem and Santonio Holmes (but be careful as he's suspended for a few games) all have value.

10th Round:

If no TE and Kellen Winslow is here, I'd grab him or you can wait till the next round to grab Zach Miller of the Raiders. If looking for more depth, there are some decent running back options; Donald Brown, Cadillac Williams (scary with his injury history, but he's going to start), Tim Hightower (Beanie Wells was injured on Thursday), Darren McFadden (rumors that Bush is out for four weeks).

Honestly, from this point on it’s time to take fliers, grab backups, etc. Feel free to grab that rookie that you think will be this year’s star sleeper (Mike Williams from Tampa or Mike Williams from the Seahawks, maybe they can be the new Steve Smith’s).

You can look for handcuffs like Brian Westbrook for Frank Gore (although Anthony Dixon is a beast and could see some legitimate time if Gore goes down); Bernard Scott for Cedric Benson; LT for Shonn Greene.

Some other guys I like later are Kenny Britt, Owen Daniels (he’s off the PUP list and was a top five TE before going down last year), Devin Aromashodu (he’s getting a lot of hype, I personally like Johnny Knox better), Jacoby Jones, with the mystery surrounding MJD, or Rashard Jennings.

If you didn’t get a top QB you can look at some guys like Chad Henne, Matt Ryan, and Ben Roethlisberger (suspension reduced to four games). But at this point in the draft, you are rolling the dice, so throw those dice and hopefully you hit some numbers before you crap out.

Remember what I said before, your draft won’t be perfect – Chris Johnson isn’t dropping to you in the third round. Do the best you can with what is presented to you and don’t panic, there will be time to fix MOST mistakes (as you can imagine, Pete wasn’t able to recover that year).

Written exclusively by Chris Summers for www.thefantasyfix.com. Chris is an attorney, who lives and breathes sports in sunny California. Look for more of his great insight weekly.  

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2010 Fantasy Football Draft: A Strategy For Draft Day Success