Eli Manning (ADP 94)

Many will point to New York’s hot start in 2009 before Brandon Jacobs inability to stay healthy as reason to grab this gunslinger in the middle rounds.  I’ll argue that those are reasons to avoid Eli in 2010.  First, the “hot start.”  More than one-third of Manning’s TDs (10 of 27) came in the first 5 games of the season – against Washington, Dallas, Tampa, Kansas City and Oakland.  With the exception of Dallas (a wildly inconsistent team in their own right), these teams were considered a “gimme” for most opponents.  Once the injury bug bit the Giants’ backfield, the team’s offense was thrown into disarray.  While some people would argue that highlights just how well Manning performed, I’m not so easily convinced.  With neither Jacobs nor Ahmad Bradshaw healthy enough to shoulder the load, the Giants were forced to rely on Eli’s arm.  This year, with a renewed dedication to the defensive side of the ball, we could see a return to a ball-control offense relying on a healthy dose of Jacobs and Bradshaw, which will cap Eli’s ceiling.  He’s a decent low-end QB1, but with other options available deeper in the draft, I’d prefer to invest in a Thomas Jones (ADP 90) or Montario Hardesty (ADP 88) in this spot and grab someone with more upside later.

Jay Cutler (ADP 71)

Everything you’ve heard about the Mike Martz offense is true: the playbook is a 12-volume tome that you need a PhD to fully understand, the TEs are persona non-grata, and the quarterback will throw the ball until his arm falls off.  The bazooka-armed Cutler may seem like a great fit for a high volume offense, and there is virtually no chance he doesn’t throw for 4,000 yards in 2010.  But unless you’re in a league that doesn’t penalize for turnovers, the monster yardage totals will be, largely, offset by 20+ interceptions.  And with an offensive line that can be generously described as tenuous, expect Cutler to take a beating on a weekly basis.   Cutler, like Manning, is a decent low-end QB1 (perhaps with a slightly higher ceiling), but is not worth the price.  He is currently being drafted just after Ricky Williams (ADP 69) and before Fred Jackson (ADP 76), both of whom I would rather have in the mid-rounds.  

Matt Ryan (ADP 80)

The Boston College has made a phenomenal transition to the NFL and, in the process, has saved the Falcons franchise from oblivion after the Michael Vick debacle.  In two seasons, he has led his team to the playoffs and to the franchise’s first ever back-to-back winning seasons.  Unfortunately, none of that counts in our stat-based fantasy football world.  The Falcons are a run-first team who will rely on Michael Turner to shoulder the load.  Matt Ryan is a solid backup, but is being drafted as a starter.  Use this mid-round pick to stock up at WR or RB, and grab a more fantasy-friendly QB, such as those listed above, later in the draft.

*Average Draft Picks taken from mockdraftcentral.com.

Written by Chris Sheehan exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Chris is an avid football fan and has been playing fantasy football for over ten years. Check back for more great articles from him weekly.

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