2011 Fantasy Baseball Pitching Preview: Brett Myers & The Houston Astros
In his first season with Houston, Brett Myers had one of the best years of his career. He successfully took over the role as ace of the rotation, especially with Oswalt’s move to Philly.
Myers (2010: 14-8, 223.2 IP, 3.14 ERA, 180 K) was able to stay healthy and even went 8-0 with a 2.01 ERA at home. Last season may be considered a fluke to some, but I am a Myers believer.
Entering 2011 he should be ranked in the mid to high twenties. His ERA may go up a little, but the strikeouts, wins, and fantastic home field benefit will be there as long as he can remain healthy.
I’d like to find out how many fantasy owners dropped Wandy Rodriguez half way through the 2010 season. As a Rodriguez owner myself, there were a few times of yelling at my computer while glaring up and cursing Wandy to the heavens above… but I digress.
Wandy was able to turn his season around. After the All Star break, he went 5-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 101 strikeouts in 93.2 innings pitched. The second half of last season was the Rodriguez we are all used to seeing. Rodriguez’s post-All Star stats to continue into 2011, and he can be your team’s solid third starter. Expect him to get around 14 wins while posting a mid-3.00 ERA.
Houston’s third starter, J.A. Happ, made 16 starts in 2010 and seemed to fit nicely in his new role with the Astros. His 2010 totals (Philadelphia and Houston) include a 5-4 record with a 3.40 ERA.
Looking forward to 2011, Happ needs to pitch further into games to be a solid fantasy play. Only going seven innings or more in two of his 16 starts proved to be detrimental to his fantasy value. Happ does has the Minute Maid home field advantage, going 4-1 with 38 strikeouts in 44.1 innings with a 3.22 ERA, so fantasy owners can use this to their benefit.
Expect Happ to be a fourth or fifth starter in most mixed leagues, and possibly see 13 wins, a 7.0 K/9 ratio, and an ERA between 3.20 and 3.50.
Bud Norris is pretty much locked in as the Astros fourth starting pitcher. I wouldn’t say because of his skills, but rather the lack of other options Houston has at pitching.
Norris is an NL-only starter this year. With the depth at starting pitcher this year, mixed leagues have much more options, and one shouldn’t waste a mix league pitcher on Norris.
In his two season career, he averages more than four walks a game and just under five runs per game. Along with Houston’s weak offense and low run support, the pieces just don’t seem to fit for a productive 2011.
Besides NL-only leagues, I can only see Norris effective in one other situation. If it’s the end of the week, you’ve already conceded ERA and WHIP, but have a shot at winning strikeouts, and Norris happens to be pitching on a Saturday or Sunday, he’s a guy that could get you five or more strikeouts even in a loss. The chances are reasonably low that these circumstances fall into place, but it may be something to consider at desperate times. (If you play in a rotisserie league, I would just stay away from Norris all together)
Houston… We Have a Problem (Outside Pitchers Looking In)Nelson Figueroa: Found success with Houston last year going 5-3 with a 3.22 ERA and 7.8 K/9. He will enter spring training with a definite chance of taking over the fifth spot in the rotation. This is a guy with years of experience, recent success in the National League, and the ability to consistently get to the sixth, seventh, or later innings of a game. Concerns exist with his age (36) and high walk rate, but he has a great chance of becoming Houston’s fifth starter.
Ryan Rowland-Smith: Has a shot of winning the job, but lack of NL experience and last season’s numbers are a definite drawback. Rowland-Smith’s 2009 was successful (5-4, 96.1 IP, 3.74 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) so winning games as a starter isn’t unfamiliar to him. He is a different pitcher than the other Astros (Rowland-Smith not a strikeout pitcher), but this could be appealing to Houston to round out the rotation. I think it might be a stretch for him to get the fifth spot, but it is certainly not out of the question.
Where do these four fall in your 2011 fantasy baseball overall pitcher rankings?Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFixWritten by Tyler Becker exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Look for Tyler’s weekly insight into MLB, NFL, & NHL. You can follow Tyler on Twitter @FantasyProdigy
Want to read Tyler's other National League Central previews to prepare for your 2011 fantasy baseball draft? Read about the Chicago Cubs, Cincinatti Reds!