Recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2009, Volquez hasn’t had the right timing with his pitching. Also, a 50 game suspension last season sure could have contributed to his lack of production. This year Volquez seems to be healthy, ready, and out of trouble. It would be tough for Volquez to have the same or better numbers than 2008, but he definitely has potential to be a top 30 starter. If Volquez stays healthy, I could see a solid line of 15-10, 190 IP, 3.50 ERA, and 190 K. 

Mike Leake, Cincinnati’s 2009 first round pick, quickly came to the majors, and even found success in the first half of the 2010 year. Leake went 6-1 with 79 strikeouts and a 3.53 ERA in 109.2 IP. But after the All Star break, the 22-year old threw a few stink bombs and ended up pitching in relief out of the bullpen during late August. He’ll certainly have a chance to compete for a spot in the rotation this spring training, but at a young age and just having been drafted, there is definitely room for concern. If I had to predict how the Reds’ rotation would pan out, my eggs will not be found be in the Mike Leake basket.

That leaves Homer Bailey and Travis Wood as the fourth and fifth starter. In his 19 starts, Bailey showed us his strikeout potential, striking out 100 batters in 109 innings. His post-All Star break numbers were strong (10 GS, 3-1, 58.1 IP, 59 K, 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) despite missing all of June and July. Bailey’s difficulty to stay healthy and in the Reds’ rotation will determine his fantasy value. If he can make the rotation to start the season, he’ll be on a very short leash. An injury, string of bad starts, or just getting out played by a teammate could easily send Bailey back to the minors or the bullpen.

Travis Wood didn’t spend much time in the majors last season, but entering 2011 he will be competing for the Reds’ fifth spot, and in my eyes, I see him getting it. Last year, Wood allowed three runs or less in 15 of his 17 starts. We can expect decent production from Wood. He may only be an NL-only player this year, but especially in keeper leagues he could be a nice late round pick. 

Looking at Wood’s 2009 and 2010 seasons in AAA Louisville, he went 9-8 in 24 starts and averaged a 3.09 ERA. He also averaged 7.9 K/9 while maintaining a low WHIP. Pitching in the majors will most likely show similar numbers to his seasons in AAA and last years Cincinnati Reds’ stats, but like his teammates, he’ll have to stay strong to earn his spot in the rotation.