2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections: "Finding the Mean" in Justin Smoak & Josh Tomlin

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· May 6, 2011

Today I would like to talk about going on hiatus. First of all, let me apologize to TheFantasyFix.com world for not writing a new Finding the Mean article in a month. I received a new assignment at work that is a huge upgrade in the actual amount of real work I must do. To put it in baseball terms, it is the equivalent of pitching every game in Petco and then moving to Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. As Matt Harrison can tell you, the latter can be brutal.

In my defense, however, I am not the only person who took the month of April off. Many fantasy studs seem to have decided to go on strike this season. Some have done so through lack of production such as Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford, and Adam Dunn. Others have done so through injuries such as Evan Longoria, Josh Hamilton, and Ryan Zimmerman.

I guess my lack of writing can only be attributed to the lack of production as opposed to injury. The only injury I received in the month of April would be the occasional (ok maybe not so occasional) hangover. But I digress. Let my finish this ramble of a preamble by saying that my goal is to do one of these every week. I will not make promises other than it will not be a whole month before you read me again. Sorry once more, and let’s get to baseball.

Normally, each week I give you a hitter and a pitcher who are underperforming and will eventually right the ship. This week I thought I would talk about some guys who I believe are over-performing and will eventually trend back to the fantasy muck from whence they came. Just remember, everyone regresses to the mean eventually.

The first hitter is currently the second most added player in ESPN leagues, Justin Smoak. I think it is safe to say that his season thus far has been “Smoak and Mirrors.” Totally terrible joke I know, but seriously, this guy will not hit anywhere close to the .296 that he is currently. Right now his BABIP is a bloated .339. For his career, albeit short, that number is .271. I realize that he is only 24 years old, but I do not see a turnaround coming anytime soon.

Perhaps I am a bit too biased against the guy because of my Rangers fandom. When we sent him to Seattle for Cliff Lee I could not have been happier. I have always felt like he was vastly overrated. He definitely has some power potential but not anything special (his career high in HR is 22 split between AAA and the Majors). Also, playing in Safeco does not help that potential. Last season Safeco was the second worst hitter’s park in all of baseball, both in runs scored and in home runs. In 2008 and 2009 it was bottom 10 in both categories as well. The offense around him does not help his cause either. Currently the Mariners are sixth worst in runs scored in the Major Leagues. That team is composed of Ichiro and basically nothing else offensively. I would sell Smoak in a heartbeat right now if I could.

My Prediction for 2011 Justin Smoak:

.240, 20 HR, 60 R, 65 RBI

Our pitcher this week who is vastly playing over his head is Josh Tomlin. Currently outperforming Tim Lincecum on the ESPN Player Rater, Tomlin has nowhere to go but down. As it stands right now, Tomlin boasts a 2.43 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP. Sounds pretty good right? Only when you look closer at the numbers can you see that it’s all Smoak and mirrors. Yeah, I went there twice.

First of all, he does not strike anyone out. His K/9 ratio is just over 5. What makes matters worse are all of his “luck” stats. His BABIP stands at a tiny .157, his LOB% is a huge 90.9%, and his tERA is 5.38. Those numbers should tell you everything you need to know. He will regress. Drastically. Whenever the fall from grace starts to happen it will be ugly.

My Prediction for 2011 Josh Tomlin

170 IP, 10-13, 100 K, 5.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

(May 4, 2011 – Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images North America)

Written exclusively for the Fantasy Fix by Corey Herron. Corey is an Oil & Gas Landman who is hoping desperately that Eric Hosmer will not put up Smoak and mirrors numbers. You can find him on Twitter @coherron.

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Tags: The Fantasy Fix, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Finding the Mean, Corey Herron, Justin Smoak, Josh Tomlin

2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections: "Finding the Mean" in Justin Smoak & Josh Tomlin