2011 Fantasy Baseball, THE RUBBER Week 13: Top 50 Pitcher Rankings

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· June 29, 2011

Here is how I handle things. If I am right about something, I will make sure you never forget about it. If I turn out to have been wrong on something, you will be hard pressed to get me to acknowledge there was ever a disagreement. And If I have an opinion on a question yet to be answered (and I almost always do), I will vehemently defend my position until the bitter end, no matter how bleak my chances of being proved right become.

But there are a few instances where I do not have an opinion. Or rather, I simply cannot make up my mind. When that happens, I just avoid publicly addressing the issue because I see no point in choosing a position when there is basically a 50-50 chance that I will be wrong.

The problem is that I apply those practices to this column. Each week I rank the top 50 and give you a guy I love as well as a guy I hate, but I can only tell you how much I love Chris Narveson and how much I hate Alexi Ogando so many times.

So, today I am going to face my fears and pick a side on a few guys that have left me puzzled all season long.

Ryan Vogelsong (San Francisco Giants, 99.9% owned)

I must be honest, I had no idea that Vogelsong was a thirty-three year old journeyman who did not throw a single pitch at any level from 2007 to 2009 until I sat down to write this. For whatever reason, I just assumed he was some young prospect who had managed to avoid my radar over the last few years.

That little piece of information combined with his -1.02 ERA-FIP differential and his 85% strand rate makes it easy to be a non-believer. However, the 3:1 K:BB makes me think that he could be useful again after the inevitable bottoming out period that is sure to come soon.

Doug Fister (Seattle Mariners, 7.4% owned)

ERA: 3.18. And it is backed up by a 3.20 FIP and 3.77 xFIP which does not indicate too much regression because it is simply a reflection of Fister’s home ballpark suppressing home runs.

WHIP: 1.20. And it is backed up by a sub-2.00 BB/9 and a very normal .295 BABIP.

Fister’s K numbers are up almost a strikeout per inning compared to last year, and his strand rate is very near the mean. So why am I hesitating to sign off on Fister being a viable option? It is mainly because Fister has had a WHIP of exactly 1.28 each of the last two years and ERA’s of 4.13 and 4.11.

It boils down to a choice between believing in improvement based on this year’s peripheral numbers and his track record. Gun to my head, I guess I will take a shot on Fister being an improved pitcher and believe in the most recent set of statistics.

Randy Wolf (Milwaukee Brewers, 34.5% owned)

Wolf is someone that I have felt has been undervalued year after year for quite some time now. And I would like to say that continues to be the case this year as a 3.20 ERA and 1.25 WHIP seem to be worthy of more than a 34.5% ownership percentage.

However, there may be a mild regression coming for the one-man wolf pack. It should not be anything too serious, but that ERA is likely to start creeping towards 4.00, and the WHIP may tick up past 1.30.

As much as it hurts me to distance myself from a long-time value play of mine, I think it is probably the right move.

The Top 50

Look who has a 30+ scoreless innings streak going. And the 3-4-5 guys in the Texas Rangers’ rotation have an ERA over 5.00 over the last thirty days. As risky as seven guaranteed years would have been, the Ranger fan in me sure wishes we would have taken that risk at this point.

If Greinke’s rough outing at Yankee Stadium (2 IP, 7 ER) opened up any window to buy on him, you have to take a shot on him over the next few days. When you look at his Fangraphs page, you can practically hear his peripheral numbers screaming that good things are to come.

K/9 near 12, K/BB of 9:1, +2.47 ERA-FIP, 3.48 BABIP, 58.8% strand rate.

Saberme-boner.

There is no doubt that Pineda has special skills. If you have seen him pitch, you know this. But for this year, it is time to sell while you can.

For starters, his peripheral numbers indicate a mild to moderate regression may be coming soon. More importantly, his innings will be limited, no matter what the Mariners are saying at the moment. When the Mariners are ten games out at the end of July, that “no innings limit” talk will stop abruptly.

Just warning you, Bartolo Colon, Brandon McCarthy, and Brandon Beachy all hit the DL within two weeks of me giving in and pimping them in The Rubber. That plus Bedard’s injury history is a recipe for disaster.

Out this week: Jonathan Sanchez, Roy Oswalt, Josh Johnson, Gavin Floyd

All ownership percentages from ESPN.com

(June 15, 2011 – Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images North America)

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who may regret stepping out of the Doug Fister closet. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

Tags: The Fantasy Fix, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings, Brett Talley, Pitching Profile, The Rubber

2011 Fantasy Baseball, THE RUBBER Week 13: Top 50 Pitcher Rankings

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