Tommy Hanson, in his second season with the Braves proved his stuff last year, but only managed to win ten games. To Hanson’s credit, eight of his eleven losses came when his offense failed to score more than three runs. In 2010, he posted a 3.33 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and struck out 173 in 202.2 innings. 

Hanson will likely fall in the mid-twenties of starting pitchers for 2011. I also think he’ll see more wins than previous seasons, especially with Dan Uggla’s arrival and Jason Heyward in beast mode. After the All-Star break, Hanson recorded 69 strikeouts in 100 innings (down from 104 strikeouts in 100 innings before the break), so his punch-outs might drop a bit next season. His pitching approach may have changed in the second half too. From the first half of the year to the second half, Hanson’s batting average against hitters dropped .066 and he lowered his WHIP by 0.39. I wouldn’t draft Hanson as your top starter, but he can definitely be a solid number two guy.

Now let’s look at a guy a little more than a decade older than Hanson, Derek Lowe. I’d say Lowe is more of an NL-only play. He has a 4.00+ ERA in his two seasons with Atlanta and a down strikeout total from previous years. If your league uses WHIP, it hurts Lowe’s value a bit (2009 WHIP 1.52 and 2010 WHIP 1.37). Lowe also led the majors in “cheap wins” with eight. Meaning half of his 16 wins came when he failed to reach the sixth inning or allow more than three earned runs. He should be going around the low-forties range for NL-only league pitchers.

Tim Hudson, coming off Tommy John surgery, pitched his way to fantasy stardom last year. With 17 wins and a 2.83 ERA, Hudson has elevated himself to a top 30 fantasy starting pitcher entering the year. He will be a nice second or third starter for your team in 2011, but proceed with caution. It’s unlikely Hudson will win as many games as he did last season, and a sub-3.00 ERA is certainly not given. However, Hudson appeared to recover tremendously from missing most of 2009, and will look to continue his success once again for the Braves.

Atlanta’s fourth starter, Jair Jurrjens, was struck with the injury plague last season. He missed almost all of May and June, and even struggled pitching for the rest of his healthy starts. The good news, though, is Jurrjens looks like he will be able to go full speed ahead come spring training. The bad news, going full speed ahead might mean handing out up home runs to the hitters and carrying around an abysmal ERA. In 2010, Jurrjens HR/9 rate was just about one dinger for every nine innings. In 2009 his HR/9 was 0.6, and in 2005 it was 0.5 HR/9. I don’t know about you, but that sure is a bad sign for him. Depending on the size of your league and roster, I would have no problem seeing Jurrjens in the free agency. If you’re in a larger league (12+ teams) with several pitcher spots, then I could argue for Jurrjens as a fourth or fifth starter.