There are only a few clear cut #1, non-time share, top-tier running backs: Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and Frank Gore.

PPR or non-PPR, most people would anoint Chris Johnson the #1 running back this year.  Even if he is only HALF as good as last year we are looking at 1,250 total yards and eight TD –  that alone would make him a good #2 on your team.

Much has been written about the year after a 2,000 yard season. Eric Dickerson, Jamal Lewis, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis and OJ Simpson all had significant declines the following season. 

The most similar to Johnson in that group were probably Sanders and Simpson – as both of them made their living with moves as opposed to power.

In addition, all the other running backs, aside from Eric Dickerson, ran for 2,000 yards in their fourth year or later. That’s a few more years of pounding than Johnson has received.

It’s possible that Chris Johnson had his career year during his second season, but do you really want to risk the chance that this is just the beginning?

Like we did with the Receivers, let’s examine the #2 Running back.  There is one distinct difference in assessing the #1 running back, is it a PPR or non-PPR league? This distinction can really change the balance of power.

In a regular non-PPR league, it’s hard to debate anyone other than AP as the #2.  Over the last three seasons he’s averaged 1,500 yds, 13 TD with 27 receptions for 276 yards. Last year was hands down his best in terms of receptions with 43 for 436 yards. None of the other contenders have that kind of consistency, so in a regular league he’s the clear cut #2.  The real debate occurs in PPR leagues.

We can knock out a few pretty early.  Michael Turner is about as effective in the pass game as the MVP of the lingerie bowl would be running between the tackles. 

Steven Jackson is coming off of back surgery and there is no other legitimate offensive threat on the Rams. 

Frank Gore is a good all-around runner, and with some offensive continuity for the first-time in his career he might have his career season.  On the flip side, he’s an injury risk and the Niners have a lot of options. 

There are too many what if’s to make Gore #2.  So the legitimate contenders are AP, MJD and Ray Rice.

MJD has an impressive three-year average of 1,000 yds & 12 TD rushing and 50 catches for 450 yards and one TD. Those numbers might seem a little light, but remember before that he was splitting time with Fred Taylor.  Last year was his first full year and he rushed for 1,400 yds, 15 TD and 53 receptions for 375 yds and another TD.

The red flag with MJD (and as an MJD owner this has me petrified) is the mysterious nature surrounding his shutdown for the preseason. There are rumors of surgeries, MJD’s agent says it’s nothing, but with Sidney Rice recently waiting six months for surgery, you never know. 

My advice, if you can grab any of the boys mentioned before MJD (aside from Steven Jackson) do it.

In previous years, AP was on similar footing with Michael Turner in PPR terms, but Favre was much better at getting him involved in the passing game. This could be attributed to Minnesota’s focus on the pass last season and the need with increased passes to increase check-down passes to the running backs.   

Unlike Peterson, Ray Rice doesn't have a 3-year track record.  Last year was really his first season as the man, and he didn’t take over until a few games in – still he finished with 1,339 yds and seven rushing tds. He also had 78 receptions, 700 receiving yds and a TD. 

He really didn’t take over as the main rusher until his seventh game (for the first six games he averaged 12 rushes; over the next ten he averaged 18 – a 50% increase) so just imagine his numbers stretched over a full season as being the main starter.

Let’s take a quick comparison of the PPR numbers (assuming one point per catch and one point per ten receiving yards):

Rice v. AP:  Rice +35 catches and +264 yds = 61 more points from the receiving game, or almost 4 points per game (assuming 16 games).  These aren't insignificant numbers.

Let’s look a bit deeper.  AP’s passing numbers are likely to suffer because:

A) with the loss of Sidney Rice and the continued uncertainty of Percy Harvin the Vikings will focus more on the run

B) with the focus on the run, there will not only be less little swing pass plays called but also less check downs to AP.  Now, it is true that the increase in rushing will help his yardage, but he’s got to go ten yards to get a point as opposed to catching a one yard dump off for a point.

On the flipside, it looks like the Ravens will pass more this year with the additions of Donte Stallworth and Anquan Boldin.

So while AP is getting robbed of those check down’s, Ray Rice could see more.  Sure his rushing yards might suffer as a result, but remember, he received 50% more attempts over the last ten games of the season. Those attempts stretched over the whole season will probably make up for any losses from the teams focus on the pass.

Playing devil’s advocate, AP gets all the goal line carries, whereas the Ravens like to spread it around to Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain.  Still, Ray Rice had to deal with that last year and as his role in the offense grows, those opportunities will be thrown his way. 

Even if we assume that everything stays the same and that Ray Rice and AP have the same numbers as last year, Rice still outscores AP by a significant margin.  There is no reason to believe this trend will reverse, in fact it looks like Ray Rice is ready to increase his PPR value, while AP stands to decline. 

The choice is Ray Rice and it’s not even that close.

Written exclusively by Chris Summers for www.thefantasyfix.com. Chris is an attorney, who lives and breathes sports in sunny California. Look for more of his great insight weekly.



Think Ray Rice deserves to be the number two Running Back taken off the board?
Leave us a comment or reply to  us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix



Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, Running Backs, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Michael Turner, Maurice Jones-Drew, MJD, Eric Dickerson, Jamal Lewis, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis, OJ Simpson, Donte Stallworth, Anquan Boldin, Willis McGahee, LeRon McClain, Tennessee Titans, Minnesota Vikings, Baltimore Ravens, St. Louis Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars