Code Red in Cincinnati

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· May 23, 2010

Johnny Cueto

A once proud franchise, the Cincinnati Reds have suffered through a prolonged drought of success. They've failed to register a winning campaign since the 2000 season, and have been absent from postseason play since 1995. Since '95 they've gone through 7 managers and 4 general managers. In 2010, the tide finally appears to be turning. Under the leadership of Dusty Baker and Walt Jocketty, the Reds have assembled a diverse roster of experienced veterans and young talent- winning baseball has been the result. The Reds are 25-18 and in 1st place in the NL Central.

OFFENSE
The Reds have been one of the most opportunistic hitting teams in Major League Baseball. Their team batting average with RISP is .287. That figure skyrockets to .313 in RISP w/2 out situations, tops in baseball. They've amassed 81 runs after 2 outs in a inning. Their hitting .371 in 35 AB with the base loaded, including 3 grand slams. In addition, the Reds have scored the most runs in baseball from the 7th inning on with 88, and have 4 walk-off wins (3 walk-off HR’s). Their combination of power (49 HR) and speed (30 SB) give them a myriad of options to create runs.

Key contributors:
1B Joey Votto .313, 10 HR, 32 RBI- Outside of Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Just Morneau, you'd be hard pressed to find a more consistent performer at first base. Votto always delivers a quality at bat, working the count into his favor and hitting line drives. His line drive rate is 18%. His strikeout number (39) is bloated as a result of his willingness to work deep counts, but he's also drawn 26 BB. He's batting .372 with RISP and .368 in RISP w/2 out situations. Votto is an extremely dependable RBI man. He's also flashed some speed, stealing 6 bases, which is always a bonus for a 1B.

OF Jonny Gomes .292, 6 HR, 27 RBI- Gomes production with the bat and unbridled enthusiasm have earned him a spot in the Reds everyday lineup. He's gotten a start in 14 of the last 15 games. Gomes has been otherworldly with ducks on the pond. Of his 35 hits this season, 20 have come with runners in scoring position. He's hitting .419 in 31 AB with RISP, driving in 23 runs. He's hitting .583 (7 for 12) in RISP w/2 out situations, driving in 10. His RBI per hit ratio is sick.

Struggling:
2B Brandon Phillips .266, 5 HR, 12 RBI- Thought of amongst the top second baseman in the game, Phillips has really scuffled in 2010. For a guy that spent 20 games in the cleanup spot, his RBI total of 12 is bordering on anemic. His batting average with RISP is an embarrassing .175. He's been far more effective in the #2 spot in the batting order, hitting .299 with a .371 OBP, and scoring 20 of his 31 runs. After stealing 23 bases in '08 and 25 in '09, he's swiped only 4 bags this season and been caught 5 times. Phillips is only 28, but his dwindling numbers are a bit disconcerting.

PITCHING

Key contributors:
Mile Leake 4-0, 2.91 ERA, 52 2/3 innings 41 hits allowed, 39:21 K:BB ratio
Ironically, despite having never pitched in a professional game (MiLB or MLB) until this season, Leake has been the Reds most consistent arm. 22 year old Mike Leake has already drawn comparisons to one of the sport's premiere control artists, Greg Maddux. Leake walked 12 men in his first two starts, but has since overcome the rookie jitters. In his last 6 starts, spanning 39 innings, he's given out just 12 free passes. His WHIP is a sparkling 1.18. Not a huge strikeout pitcher, Leake has induced ground balls at a 53% clip. The league continues to make adjustments to Leake's pitching style, but he's adjusting along with them like a seasoned vet.

Johnny Cueto 3-1, 3.67 ERA, 49 innings 46 hits allowed, 40:13 K:BB ratio
Cueto has turned up the heat in his last 3 starts: 22 innings, 15 hits allowed and 3 earned runs. He's struck out 23 and walked just 3 during that stretch. Instead of dancing around the strike zone, Cueto is now attacking hitters. His May 11th start at Pittsburgh was masterful, throwing a complete game shutout while allowing only a single baserunner. Despite his prosperous run, Cueto remains a predominantly fly ball pitcher and is quite susceptible to the HR. He's been the beneficiary of some good fortune on deep fly outs, which won't last forever. But instead of a 3 run homer after two BB, it'll be a solo shot with the new Cueto.

Homer Bailey 1-2, 5.21 ERA, 48 1/3 innings 50 hits allowed, 40:20 K:BB ratio
He's shown flashes of brilliance, but Bailey continues to be plagued by inconsistency. Not just from start to start, but from inning to inning and batter to batter. For a guy that throws mid 90's, he gets in a lot of trouble with his changeup and breaking stuff. He showed what he's capable of in a complete game shutout of the Pirates (the day after Cueto's SO). He followed up that effort with a strong 7 innings against Milwaukee, but his ERA is still a bloated 5.21. His command has been erratic with four starts of 3 walks or more. For a power pitcher, he doesn't record massive strikeout lines (7.45 K/9). Too many balls are put in play against him. Bailey's BABIP is .309. The gopher ball has also tormented Bailey, allowing 1.3 per 9 innings.

Struggling:
Aaron Harang 2-5, 6.02 ERA, 52 1/3 inning 67 hits allowed, 45:11 K:BB ratio
Harang has been getting battered around the ballpark. His batting average against is .316 and his BABIP is an outrageous .357. When you're a fly ball pitcher with those key numbers, it's likely to get ugly, and it has for Harang. He's allowing 1.72 HR's per 9 innings, and 18% of his fly balls are leaving the park. Harang has been a mainstay in the Reds rotation since 2004, but his time is near an end.

Reinforcements on the way
SP Edinson Volquez- Recovering from Tommy John surgery, Volquez is expected to return shortly after the All Star Break. He's serving his 50 game suspension for PED's while on the DL, so he'll be ready to go when healthy.

SP Aroldis Chapman- The lefty flamethrower from Cuba is currently starting in AAA Louisville. In 8 game starts he’s 4-2 with a 3.98 ERA. In his 40 2/3 innings he’s allowed 39 hits, walked 24 and struck out 48. With the Reds in the thick of things and Harang’s inability to record outs, the team will be hard pressed not to give him the call.

OF Chris Dickerson- Dickerson will be out until early June after wrist surgery. There doesn’t appear to be a spot for him in the Reds outfield at the moment, but Dickerson has an excellent eye and provides another speed option, most likely off the bench.

Do you think Cincinnati can keep it up for a full season? Will Brandon Phillips turn it around?
Leave a comment or reply to us on Twitter. Twitter.com/thefantasyfix

Tags: Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, The Fantasy Fix, Cincinnati Reds, Joey Votto, Jonny Gomes, Brandon Phillips, Mike Leake, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, Aroldis Chapman, Chris Dickerson

Code Red in Cincinnati

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