Even before you take into account how pathetic his run support will be with Gonzalez gone, his peripheral numbers indicate that a slight-to-moderate regression may be in order.  Latos benefitted from a high LOB% of 77.4% (14th highest in the league) and low line drive rate of 14.6% (4th lowest in the league) in ‘10.  

LOB% stands for left on base percentage and shows how “lucky” pitchers were with base runners they allowed being stranded on base.  Given, starting pitchers do have a fair amount of control concerning stranded base runners, but it is possible that Latos comes back towards the mean next year.  

As far as line drive rate goes, it is a wildly unpredictable statistic largely out of a pitcher’s control that can change drastically from one year to the next.  Because line drives end up as hits more often than any other type of batted ball, an unlucky swing in this number would have a negative effect on Latos’ ERA and WHIP. 

Without Gonzalez, the Padres and Latos figure to accumulate fewer wins than they did last season.  With a lower win total and a probable uptick in ERA and WHIP, Latos is still a monster strikeout guy that is probably more of a top-20 to top-25 starter who should be drafted somewhere in the tenth or eleventh round in ten-team leagues.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who is semi-embarrassed by his performance in thefantasyfix.com’s fantasy football league.  You can follow him on Twitter @therealTAL.