Fantasy Football Update: Late Round Fliers
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The start of the football season is kind of like Christmas to me. I want to sit on Mike Ditka’s lap and wish for a ton of late round gems that will win me the championship and bragging rights to my so called friends. A shiny red bike would be nice too…
On the eve of the preseason, we took a look at some potential late round gems that could help fantasy owners get over the hump this season. With the starters’ dress rehearsals over – the final preseason game is typically a battle of the backups with players vying to make the regular season roster – it’s time to update our list and see who is still relevant, who has dropped off the radar and which new faces have come into play.
Alex Smith (Average Draft Pick then: 203, now: 219)
It’s been tough to gauge the development of Smith this preseason since most of his offensive weapons have seen limited or no action – RB Frank Gore, WR Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis have been largely absent this preseason and his ADP has dropped, accordingly. But Smith’s performance this preseason, given the situation, is impressive. Continue to draft him late with confidence; Smith could finally emerge as the player we thought he would be in 2005.
It’s been tough to gauge the development of Smith this preseason since most of his offensive weapons have seen limited or no action – RB Frank Gore, WR Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis have been largely absent this preseason and his ADP has dropped, accordingly. But Smith’s performance this preseason, given the situation, is impressive. Continue to draft him late with confidence; Smith could finally emerge as the player we thought he would be in 2005.
Kyle Orton (ADP 267)
Drafted in less then 25% of leagues, you should be able to grab Orton towards the end of your draft. With contract extension in hand, he’ll no longer be hearing about Tim Tebow’s impending takeover. Orton is reportedly having a tremendous camp and should excel in his second year in Denver. He is well suited for Josh McDaniels dink-and-dunk offense, and has developed a strong rapport with fellow journeyman Jabar Gaffney. He’s a late round pickup as a strong QB2 with potential to sneak into the top-12 at his position.
Drafted in less then 25% of leagues, you should be able to grab Orton towards the end of your draft. With contract extension in hand, he’ll no longer be hearing about Tim Tebow’s impending takeover. Orton is reportedly having a tremendous camp and should excel in his second year in Denver. He is well suited for Josh McDaniels dink-and-dunk offense, and has developed a strong rapport with fellow journeyman Jabar Gaffney. He’s a late round pickup as a strong QB2 with potential to sneak into the top-12 at his position.
Leon Washington (ADP 161)
While the fantasy community – myself included – has been ready to give presumed superstar-in-development Justin Forsett the starting role in Seattle, he never stood up and took the job during the preseason. This has opened the door for Seahawks coach, Pete Carroll, to open the year with a committee backfield. Washington should split carries and could potentially post stats similar to his 2008 campaign with the New York Jets in which he averaged nearly six yards per carry, and was an integral part of the passing game. While the messy Seattle backfield is starting to resemble the Shanahan-era Broncos, someone will eventually step forward and claim the starting role once the season gets going. With the bulk of the fantasy community paying a speculative premium on Forsett, Washington comes with a little less upside, but a much smaller price tag. He’s a great value as a flex player with a boost in points-per-reception leagues.
While the fantasy community – myself included – has been ready to give presumed superstar-in-development Justin Forsett the starting role in Seattle, he never stood up and took the job during the preseason. This has opened the door for Seahawks coach, Pete Carroll, to open the year with a committee backfield. Washington should split carries and could potentially post stats similar to his 2008 campaign with the New York Jets in which he averaged nearly six yards per carry, and was an integral part of the passing game. While the messy Seattle backfield is starting to resemble the Shanahan-era Broncos, someone will eventually step forward and claim the starting role once the season gets going. With the bulk of the fantasy community paying a speculative premium on Forsett, Washington comes with a little less upside, but a much smaller price tag. He’s a great value as a flex player with a boost in points-per-reception leagues.
Toby Gerhart (ADP then: 175, now: 215)
As much as I love the hard-nosed, Stanford product, his stock has plummeted after a poor training camp which landed him as the third running back on the Vikings depth chart. To boot, he got a little dinged up in the latest game with Seattle. While it doesn’t look serious, he’s just waiver fodder for now. Ignore him in drafts, but keep an eye on his status mid-season since a promotion would make him Adrian Peterson’s primary backup.
As much as I love the hard-nosed, Stanford product, his stock has plummeted after a poor training camp which landed him as the third running back on the Vikings depth chart. To boot, he got a little dinged up in the latest game with Seattle. While it doesn’t look serious, he’s just waiver fodder for now. Ignore him in drafts, but keep an eye on his status mid-season since a promotion would make him Adrian Peterson’s primary backup.
Kareem Huggins (ADP 293)
It doesn’t get me the street cred it would’ve had if I brought him up back in July, but I am definitely aboard the Huggins bandwagon. Word from Bucs camp is that Huggins has surpassed Derrick Ward on the depth chart and will go into Week One as the primary backup to Carnell Williams (I think we can stop calling him Cadillac now). Even if Williams can stay healthy all year – something he’s accomplished only once in five seasons – Huggins should at least see Ward’s 130-touch workload from 2009. And given his breakaway speed, he should do a lot more with those touches than Ward. Huggins is being drafted in only 6% of leagues, so you can grab him with one of your final picks, a great value for a 100+ touch back just an injury away from a featured back role.
It doesn’t get me the street cred it would’ve had if I brought him up back in July, but I am definitely aboard the Huggins bandwagon. Word from Bucs camp is that Huggins has surpassed Derrick Ward on the depth chart and will go into Week One as the primary backup to Carnell Williams (I think we can stop calling him Cadillac now). Even if Williams can stay healthy all year – something he’s accomplished only once in five seasons – Huggins should at least see Ward’s 130-touch workload from 2009. And given his breakaway speed, he should do a lot more with those touches than Ward. Huggins is being drafted in only 6% of leagues, so you can grab him with one of your final picks, a great value for a 100+ touch back just an injury away from a featured back role.
Mike Williams (ADP then: 208, now: 178)
Williams has officially been named the top WR for the Bucs and, if the third preseason game was any indication, he won’t miss a step with backup QB Josh Johnson in the lineup. Tampa’s offense isn’t as explosive as New Orleans or Indianapolis, but the opportunity to grab a team’s number one WR after the tenth round is almost always a worthwhile gamble, especially when he’s as talented as Williams. While I’m not typically one to gameplan for fantasy playoffs during my draft, it should be noted that Tampa has, on paper, one of the softest schedules Weeks 14-16 (@ Washington, Detroit, Seattle).
Williams has officially been named the top WR for the Bucs and, if the third preseason game was any indication, he won’t miss a step with backup QB Josh Johnson in the lineup. Tampa’s offense isn’t as explosive as New Orleans or Indianapolis, but the opportunity to grab a team’s number one WR after the tenth round is almost always a worthwhile gamble, especially when he’s as talented as Williams. While I’m not typically one to gameplan for fantasy playoffs during my draft, it should be noted that Tampa has, on paper, one of the softest schedules Weeks 14-16 (@ Washington, Detroit, Seattle).
Dexter McCluster (ADP then: 193, now: 261)
His draft numbers are misleading. While his ADP has plummeted, it’s more a product of his going undrafted in over 70% of leagues. In reality, his stock is rising and he is being taken as early as 127th overall. McCluster has averaged over nine yards per touch this preseason and is getting action in the return game, as well. The Chiefs have shown they’re willing to deploy him in whatever way they can. This season’s Percy Harvin – New and Improved, No Migraines! – is a bargain in the tenth round of 12-team leagues.
His draft numbers are misleading. While his ADP has plummeted, it’s more a product of his going undrafted in over 70% of leagues. In reality, his stock is rising and he is being taken as early as 127th overall. McCluster has averaged over nine yards per touch this preseason and is getting action in the return game, as well. The Chiefs have shown they’re willing to deploy him in whatever way they can. This season’s Percy Harvin – New and Improved, No Migraines! – is a bargain in the tenth round of 12-team leagues.
Anthony Gonzalez (ADP 254)
Gonzalez burned a number of owners as a mid-round pick in 2009 that went on to miss the entire season, and the emergence of Indy’s new WR corps has apparently wiped the Ohio State product from the fantasy community’s collective memory. It’s unclear whether he’ll be moving to the slot or sharing time with Pierre Garcon as the WR2, but it is clear that Gonzalez is healthy once again. As a cog in the well-oiled machine that is the Colts’ offense, Gonzalez should have no problem posting numbers similar to his pre-injury level. Fifty catches and 4-6 TDs are a good bet, making him a tremendous value at the bottom drafts in all formats.
Gonzalez burned a number of owners as a mid-round pick in 2009 that went on to miss the entire season, and the emergence of Indy’s new WR corps has apparently wiped the Ohio State product from the fantasy community’s collective memory. It’s unclear whether he’ll be moving to the slot or sharing time with Pierre Garcon as the WR2, but it is clear that Gonzalez is healthy once again. As a cog in the well-oiled machine that is the Colts’ offense, Gonzalez should have no problem posting numbers similar to his pre-injury level. Fifty catches and 4-6 TDs are a good bet, making him a tremendous value at the bottom drafts in all formats.
Brian Hartline (Undrafted)
I read something this offseason showing that wide receivers playing opposite Brandon Marshall tend to post strong numbers. That sounds logical enough; defenses tend to pay extra attention to a guy who annually catches 100 balls for 1,100 yards. The argument, though, was meant to bolster the case for Davone Bess. Except, Bess won’t be starting across from Marshall – Brian Hartline will. The fourth round pick led the team with 16.3 yards-per-catch in 2009 and looks to take on a bigger role this season as he steps into a starting role. Whether or not the aforementioned theory holds any water, Hartline stands to experience a jump in output. Last year he caught 31 balls for 26 first downs; the team trusts him to make plays. With the dynamic duo in the backfield and coverage rolled to stop Baby T.O. (are we still calling him that?), Hartline will have plenty of opportunities to shine.
Got any other Late Round Fliers?
Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix Written by Chris Sheehan exclusively for the www.thefantasyfix.com. Chris is an avid football fan and has been playing fantasy football for over ten years. Check back for more great articles from him weekly. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Ranks, Late Round Picks, Average Draft Pick, Alex Smith, Michael Crabtree, Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, Jabar Gaffney, Leon Washington, Justin Forsett, Toby Gerhart, Adrian Peterson, Kareem Huggins, Carnell Williams, Mike Williams, Dexter McCluster, Anthony Gonzalez, Brian Hartline, Brandon Marshall, San Francisco 49ers, Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, Minnesota Vikings, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins
I read something this offseason showing that wide receivers playing opposite Brandon Marshall tend to post strong numbers. That sounds logical enough; defenses tend to pay extra attention to a guy who annually catches 100 balls for 1,100 yards. The argument, though, was meant to bolster the case for Davone Bess. Except, Bess won’t be starting across from Marshall – Brian Hartline will. The fourth round pick led the team with 16.3 yards-per-catch in 2009 and looks to take on a bigger role this season as he steps into a starting role. Whether or not the aforementioned theory holds any water, Hartline stands to experience a jump in output. Last year he caught 31 balls for 26 first downs; the team trusts him to make plays. With the dynamic duo in the backfield and coverage rolled to stop Baby T.O. (are we still calling him that?), Hartline will have plenty of opportunities to shine.
Got any other Late Round Fliers?
Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix Written by Chris Sheehan exclusively for the www.thefantasyfix.com. Chris is an avid football fan and has been playing fantasy football for over ten years. Check back for more great articles from him weekly. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Ranks, Late Round Picks, Average Draft Pick, Alex Smith, Michael Crabtree, Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, Jabar Gaffney, Leon Washington, Justin Forsett, Toby Gerhart, Adrian Peterson, Kareem Huggins, Carnell Williams, Mike Williams, Dexter McCluster, Anthony Gonzalez, Brian Hartline, Brandon Marshall, San Francisco 49ers, Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, Minnesota Vikings, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins
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