Fantasy Football Week 15 Sit Em, Start Em: Keep Tossing The Rock To The Boss!
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For an inexperienced quarterback Freeman sure doesn't make many mistakes. Only Tom Brady, Michael Vick, Matt Cassel and Ben Roethlisberger have thrown fewer interceptions than his total of six. He only has a single multi-pick performance on his game log and doesn't leave fantasy owners exposed.
Freeman has five two-touchdown games and has a thrown a TD in 12 of 13 weeks (17 overall). After a stretch of four straight games with 25 or fewer pass attempts, offensive coordinator Greg Olson has begun to take the reigns off. He aired it out 37 times against Baltimore and 38 against Atlanta before dipping back to 25 last time out. Freeman can always be counted on for at least one big play, including 64 and 41 last week on almost 18 yards per completion.
Detroit's pass defense is likely to oblige, allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt (29th) and 21 scores. The Lions pass rush is a real threat, but the Tampa line has done a better job protecting the last five weeks surrendering only five sacks. Freeman's mobility (300 yards rushing) is just an added perk.
QB Sit: Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
100+ QB ratings have become a regularity for Flacco since mid-season. He's consistently around the 250-yard mark and has thrown 11 touchdowns against two picks since November.
Despite the aesthetically pleasing numbers, however, there are reasons to take heed. The Ravens have been operating at a high level of efficiency in first halves of games, but have become ultra-conservative with even slim leads. They haven't scored an offensive touchdown in the second half since week ten. This style of game calling explains his lone 300-yard passing game, and really inhibits Flacco's ceiling as a fantasy QB. His rapport with star wideout Anquan Boldin has also faltered in recent weeks, leaving Derrick Mason as the go-to-guy.
That might fly against the Texans porous secondary, but not against New Orleans. The Saints rank 5th against the pass, and have intercepted more passes (9) than touchdowns allowed (8). They allow 199 passing yards per contest. This is by no means an easy SIT decision in a playoff week, but a marquee effort should not be anticipated.
The Panthers ground game has been revitalized since week 12, and Stewart has been the primary beneficiary. The last three weeks he's run 12 for 98, 21 for 92 and a TD and 18 for 133. Keep in mind, entering this streak his previous high yardage game was 33, and his high carry game was 14. The gamebreaking runs are also beginning to surface, with runs of 48 and 42 last week alone. In the first eight weeks his longest run was 24 yards. Backup Mike Goodson has vultured touchdowns in each of the past two weeks, but has received just three and nine carries respectively.
Look for Carolina to pound the rock against an Arizona rush defense that ranks 30th, allowing 143 yards per game and 16 scores. They've allowed 100+ yards on the ground in five consecutive weeks, and seven out of eight. Stewart had a monster culmination to 2009, exploding for 589 yards and four TD's in the final five weeks. Healthy, and suddenly with holes to run through, another strong finish is in the cards.
RB Sit: Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills
After successful recommendations in weeks 10 and 11, it's time for Jackson to take a seat. He bounced back from two poor efforts against Pittsburgh and Minnesota (101 combined yards) with 112 yards last week vs. Cleveland, but on 3.9 per rush.
The workhorse back wore out the Browns with 29 carries, but teams simply don't pound the ball with success against Miami. The Dolphins allow a measly 3.6 yards per carry, under 100 yards per game and have cracked on the goal line just six times. They shut down two power-running attacks the last two weeks in Cleveland and NYJ. Explosive runs are just not Jackson's style (long of 19 last three), and he needs a significant workload to leave an imprint (65-yard receiving TD aside).
With only three weeks remaining, it's time C.J. Spiller gets some experience heading into his sophomore campaign. He's received 15 composite carries the past two games. That figure should hit double digits this week.
Collie's official status for week 15 has not yet been released, but word is he could return after missing three weeks with a concussion. If he suits up, Collie's a more than reasonable 3rd wide receiver on fantasy squads, most notably in PPR leagues. He has at least five receptions in six of the eight games he's played.
Collie is Peyton Manning's security blanket, converting on 82% of his 61 targets (50 receptions). He also caught six touchdowns in the opening six weeks before the injury bug hit.
The Jaguars pass defense ranks 28th in the NFL allowing a league worst 8.7 yards per attempt, plus 258 yards per game and 24 air scores. The Raiders deficient passing game torched them for 324 yards and two touchdowns last week. Collie wasn't overly involved in the first meeting against Jacksonville with five catches for 39 yards, but did hit paydirt.
If healthy, he's an extremely safe option in the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium.
WR Sit: Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers
The 34-year old warrior has cultivated moments of brilliance, but consistency has been a far cry from last season's standard. Ward has caught only 49 balls on 75 targets, a significant decline from 95 and 136 last year. His "dud" performances have been far too frequent: 1/9, 2/14, 3/15, 3/10, 3/28, 1/13.
In games where he hasn't cracked the 100-yard mark, he hasn't even reached the 35-yard plateau. Outside of hitting the century mark against Buffalo, all of his big efforts have come against questionable secondaries (ATL, MIA, CIN). The old Hines Ward might up his level against a chat happy opponent on the big state, but that WR hasn't been present in 2010. This Hines Ward is averaging 49 yards per game.
The Jets pass D ranks 9th in the league holding opponents to 51% completions. They thwarted the Dolphins air attack last week, limiting them to a ridiculous 30 net passing yards.
Boss tied for the team high in targets last week with nine, catching four balls for 23 yards and touchdown. He hasn't been a PPR threat up to this point, but that could change in the final three weeks. With Steve Smith out for the season, and Mario Manningham banged up, there's a good chance traffic in his direction will escalate. The Giants recent embarrassment of opponents on the ground will only open up more opportunities down the seam (his speciality) in the play action passing game. Boss has caught all four of his scores in the last six weeks, and has three career touchdowns (19 receptions) in five career games against Philadelphia.
TE Sit: Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota Vikings
Not an overly difficult decision based on the numbers, but many owners have been forced to utilize Shiancoe as a result of injuries. Look elsewhere. The Vikings quarterback situation is a complete wreck right now, and there's a good chance rookie scrambler Joe Webb gets the call. Regardless, Shiancoe hasn’t been operative no matter who’s been taking the snaps. He hasn’t cracked the five-reception barrier since week two, and has hit 50 yards only twice during that time period. He’s been nearly invisible the last two weeks with Tarvaris Jackson at QB. His red zone proficiency of yesteryear is no longer applicable.
Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Adam's NFL Sit 'Em, Start 'Em
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