If you’ve been paying attention, you already know he is streaky (see last week for example). But what you might not see is that he can’t possibly continue to be as horrible as he was in the early going. Let’s look at some numbers to date (valid through Wednesday June 9, 2010):
BABIP = .200 (.250 in 2009, .283 in career)
Walk Rate = 13.4% (15.3% in 2009, 13.3% in career)
GB% = 44.1% (29.0% in 2009, 36.2% in career)
FB% = 44.9% (54.1% in 2009, 45.7% in career)
LD% = 11.0% (16.8% in 2009, 18.0% in career)
What does this all mean? Well, since his strikeout rate is right on par with previous performances, it explains a lot. First, his BABIP indicates that he has been very unlucky on batted balls into play. As compared to career numbers, he could be batting up to 50 points above his current .184 on luck alone.

A deeper look at his GB/FB/LD split shows that he is hitting the ball weakly into the infield a ton this year (GB% is a career high and LD% is a career low for him in seasons of 100+ AB). Even a speed demon like Juan Pierre would have trouble getting on base with those splits. The root cause of those symptoms is his Chase Percentage (O-Swing%), or how many pitches outside of the strike zone he is hacking at, which sits at 31.2% (also a career high for seasons of 100+AB). That may be a result of pitchers trying to keep him off balance by throwing more changeups and cutters, rather than fastballs which he can lace into the stands. Since his walk rate is holding steady as compared to career averages, I say it is only a matter of time before Pena settles down and adjusts to the pitching mix. Buy now and get the good part of his season stats on your roster.

Pitcher: Jason Hammel, SP, COL
The Rockies have really improved their rotation over the past few years, and the most under-appreciated member of the starting cast is Jason Hammel. Ignore the ERA he has posted to date, because much of that damage was done back when he was battling a nagging groin injury, the same one that sent him to the DL for a couple of weeks in early May. Now that he is back and healthy, I see nothing but sunny skies ahead.

Hammel actually pitched very well in 2009, despite finishing with a 4.33 ERA. If you look deeper at FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), or what he would have done with even luck and quality fielding across the board, he should have finished with an ERA of 3.71. Curiously enough, his FIP to date is 3.73, almost identical to what he posted last season. Since the start of the 2009 season, he has also fixed problems with gopheritis (0.87 HR/9 over that span, 1.07 in career) and free passes (BB/9 in the 2.55 range, 3.14 in career). For the third stright year, Hammel is forcing groundballs at least 46% of the time a batter makes contact, and he has kept his FB% right around 30%. You can attribute some of this to experience and the rest to his move away from changeups (11.2%, 9.5%, and 5.6% in 2008/2009/2010 to date) to more of a focus on curve balls (10.0%, 15.6%, 16.9%).

Whatever the reason, Jason Hammel has been pitching like a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher for 39 starts now, so it’s time to give the kid his due. The best part is that he can be had for a waiver claim in the majority of leagues, so the price is most certainly right!

Batter:  Aaron Hill, 2B, TOR
Hill was a guy I earned a lot of money on last year.  The problem is that I got him for $1 in keeper leagues so there was no way I could let him go.  Knowing this, I knew he was a classic stay away guy in 2010 because of the overachievement.  What killed Hill was the hamstring injury right off the bat.  Some of Hill’s fantasy #’s are very ugly and scream stay away.  But if you dig deeper and look at why Hill has been so bad this year here is what you will find:
 
    •    Contact Rate 83% (only a matter of time before they become base hits)
    •    Walk rate is up from 5.7% to 11.7% (very good indicator of improved patience)
    •    BABIP is .178 vs. .288 last year (terrible luck)
    •    BA is .188 vs. .286 last year (BABIP and BA correlation)
    •    FB % up to 49% vs. 41% last year
 
2B is very deep in the American League and in the majors overall.  Hill could be a guy you use at UTIL/MI and great insurance.
 
I think right now is the perfect time to get Hill and you can still get him very cheap.  Buy now and
speculate that his 2nd half numbers turn around.
 
Pitcher: Brandon Morrow, SP, TOR
It feels like Morrow has been around for 10 years and every year we wait for the breakout.  He never got a true shot to settle into a rotation spot with Seattle and then was dealt to Toronto in the Cliff Lee/Roy Halladay deal.  Going with pitchers in the AL East is always a tough choice, but again like Hill there are some underliers that show me Morrow could be on his way to truly developing into that fantasy relevant pitcher.
 
    •    K/9 10.41 – always love guys who get the k’s
    •    .341 BABIP – this number is bound to settle in at .290.-.300
    ◦    June has a .254 BABIP
    •    5.48 ERA but XERA 3.53
    •    4.52 BB/9 – this # has to come down for Morrow to start being a good pitcher
    ◦    June has a 1.29 BB/9
 
I recently added Morrow in 2 leagues that have deep pitching requirements and I love the upside.  In the past guys like Jonathan Sanchez and Jorge De La Rosa have had similar profiles and finally broke through.

Batter: Adam Lind, OF, TOR
Highly touted coming into this year (average draft position, 3rd or 4th round) and coming off a monster season that finally saw him put his potential to good use, Lind has so far had a horrendous start to 2010.  .209 average, 8 homeruns, a paltry 26 runs and 31 rbi – all this for the team leading the majors in home runs – and just 49 hits.  Yet, if you look deeper, some of his stats belie how atrocious he has been.  Yes, he is chasing more pitches outside the strike zone than last year.  Yes, he is striking out a slightly higher rate than last year.  Yes, he has shown an alarming drop in power to center field.  BUT.  His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .247, or nearly 60 points below his career BABIP of .305.  That's right – SIXTY points.  Aside from his stint with the Jays in 2007, when he proved he was not yet ready for the big time, he has never had a BABIP lower than .317.  In the minors his BABIP routinely reached the .360s and higher. 

I don’t expect Lind to hit 25 home runs the rest of the season, but from this point forward I expect that as his luck changes, so do his stats, and for the better.

Pitcher: Jake Peavy, SP, CHW
People forget that he's still not so far removed from major arm surgery, and had to deal with switching leagues, going from a great pitcher's park to one that's horrible, and learn a whole new set of hitters.  I think he'll improve because we've seen flashes – his k/9, bb/9 and GB% (ground ball percentage) have improved month by month this season, and he is still averaging 7.5 K's per 9 innings this year.  Plus, his LOB% is the lowest of his career and his BABIP Is close to the highest – not a good combination to have.  I expect, though, that as his luck starts changing and he leaves more runners on, his K rate will continue to rise, his ERA will fall and he will pitch deeper into games and help himself to more wins.

Batter: Gordon Beckham, 2B, CHW
Gordon Beckam has basically played like garbage and polluted the fantasy landscape thus far. His .206 Batting Average and one Home Run have left a single tear welling in the eye of his owners. Some people have a deep abiding respect for the natural beauty that was once this highly touted prospect; and some people don’t. Gordo is currently owned in only 38% of Yahoo! leagues. If he isn’t a free agent in your league, his recent 102 At Bat streak without an Extra Base Hit should make him a cheap buy. What many people don’t realize is that Beckham has been plagued a .250 BABIP. His 15.5% Line Drive and 51% Ground Ball Percentages suggest this number should be higher. The league average for BABIP is .298.  Beckham has also been unlucky with a 1.9% Home Run to Fly Ball Percentage. The league average for HR/FB% is around 10-11%. The eighth overall pick in the 2008 draft is much too talented to continue hitting this poorly. The White Sox GM, Kenny Williams, sat down with Gordon and told him to go back to his aggressive approach at the plate and he has responded well. Since the two had a pow-wow, Beckham has strung together a 4 game hit streak, going 4 for 13 with 3 doubles in the process. Last season Beckham hit 14 HR and stole 7 bases in 103 games, his price won’t be any lower than it is now. If you need some cheap, productive help at the 2B position, look no further.

Pitcher: Chad Billingsley, SP, LAD
Chad Billingsley is a well known gunslinger. Tickets to Buffalo Billingsley’s Wild NL West Show could be expensive unless you can find an owner who is fed up with his 1.40 WHIP. Billingsley currently ranks 84th among all SP eligible pitchers on Yahoo! and his overall rank of 289 may help you acquire his services at a reasonable price. Chad’s ugly WHIP is not the result of him walking too many batters, he has actually reduced his walk rate from 3.94 BB/9 down to 3.17 BB/9. The issue is his .332 BABIP. He has a career BABIP of .308 and he is actually giving up less Line Drives this year than he has in the past (17.4 LD%). His 1.40 WHIP should be considered bad luck, not bad pitching. He is still striking out eight batters per nine and inducing a good number of ground balls (47.8%, 1.38 GB/FB) so I would also consider his 69.2% Strand Rate to be unlucky. His career average for LOB% is 75.4%. His owners may believe that Billingsley is pitching his worst ball in the past four years, but all this adds up for me to believe that Billingsley should be posting the best numbers of his career when it comes to ERA and WHIP. Look for a big turnaround in the second half of the season.

Batter: Aramis Ramirez , 3B, CHC
Aramis Ramirez's season has been a disaster of epic proportions.  The once mighty run producer has seen his numbers washed away by a tsunami of strikeouts and lazy fly balls.  By some measures, he's been the worst regular position player in all of baseball.  Now on the 15-day DL due to a strained thumb, he also hasn't done much to shed the “injury-prone” label that he's earned over the past few years.

Since A-Ram's never had a stretch this bad, I'm willing to assume that the thumb problem has exacerbated his usual slow start.  Sure, he's on the downside of his career, but he's about to turn 32, not 37.  Just last year, he put up a .317 BA with 15 HR and 65 RBI despite playing in just 82 games.  A-Ram's always been a second-half hitter (second half OPS of .870 vs. .807 in the first half), and has always thrived at Wrigley Field (career .918 OPS).

If he comes back healthy for the hot summer months at Wrigley, he should put up a .285+ BA and approach 15 HR and 50 RBI in the second half.  That should be enough to outperform popular third-sackers like Jose Bautista, Scott Rolen, Casey McGeehee, Chase Headley, Placido Polanco, Alberto Callaspo, Juan Uribe, Ty Wigginton, and David Freese.  See if you can lowball his frustrated owner and reap the benefits.

Pitcher: Ricky Nolasco, SP, FLA
After Saturday night's shelling in Tampa Bay, Ricky Nolasco's ERA stands at 5.05 and his strikeout rate is down to 6.6 per 9 innings.  That's a bitter pill to swallow for fantasy owners who looked past his bloated 2009 ERA and drafted him 20th among starting pitchers in ESPN leagues.

Maybe this is deja vu all over again, as Ricky was awful in the first part of 2009, when he was rocked over his first nine starts to the tune of a 9.07 ERA.  He turned his season around after a two-week stint in the minors, and was a true ace over his last 22 starts, with a 3.82 ERA and an elite 10.5 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Unless there's a secret injury, we might just be seeing a mini-repeat of 2009.  He's still in his prime and has shown the ability to lose his mechanics for a stretch and then bounce back.  Perhaps he's turning out to be a second-half pitcher (he also pitched better in the second half of 2008).  See if you can pry him loose from a frustrated owner, and hope that history repeats itself.

Batter: Chone Figgins, 2B, SEA
2009 was Chone’s BIG contract year, and boy did he not disappoint. Figgins finished the year with 114 Runs, 101 Walks, 42 SBs, & .298 BA from the leadoff spot.  Getting himself a 4 year $36 million contract, and a new city (Seattle) to boot.  Now you’d expect an Allstar caliber player like Chone Figgins to handle a move to a new team like a pro, but after a forgeable first half we are left with some questions.  Let’s take a look at where we are and where it has gone wrong:

In his first 6 full seasons (2004-2009) Chone averaged:  44 SBs, 92.7 Runs, 52.2 RBIs, 162 Hits, .291 AVG

Now for a prototypical leadoff hitter these numbers are some of the tops in the sport. One of the things I preach the most is that baseball is a game of averages. If you look back over 5 years certain trends will appear for the better players. Now I understand that Chone is facing some different circumstances than before; batting now in the 2 hole (behind Ichiro), & becoming an everyday second baseman. But you can expect a monster 2nd half as he becomes more comfortable with his roles, teammates, and city.

Bottom Line 2nd Half Expectations
Current 2010 1st Half:  ABs- 220, BA -.227, Hits – 50, RBIs -16 Runs – 26, SB – 13
Projected 2nd Half:  ABs – 400, BA – .300, Hits – 120, RBIs – 30, Runs – 75, SB – 25

Pitcher: Gavin Floyd, SP, CHW
It’s been a rough, and altogether puzzling first half for White Sox starter Gavin Floyd. His staggering 6.18 ERA is the 2nd highest in MLB among pitchers with at least 50 IP. In 206 1/3 innings in 2008 he allowed 190 hits. In 193 innings in 2009 he allowed 178 hits. Through 67 innings of work in 2010, he’s allowed 84 hits. The usually tough to square up Floyd is finding too many barrels.
 
What's gone wrong:  Right handed hitters are batting .306 against Floyd. The same RHH he held to a .256 clip in '09 and .226 in '08. When he gets himself into a jam, he's not escaping free of harm. He's allowed 26 ER in RISP w/2 out situations through 12 starts, compared to 35 ER all of last season. His LOB% is a dismal 62.6%. His BAA on balls put in play (BABIP) is .369, an obscenely high frequency of success for opposing hitters. Compare that figure to .268 in '08 and .292 in '09. Floyd is throwing more changeups and less curveballs, a recipe that doesn't seem to be paying dividends.
Why things just don’t add up: He’s averaging 7.66 K/9 innings, the highest figure of his career. He’s only allowed 7 HR, or 0.94 HR/9, his lowest gopher ball rate at the major league level. His ground ball rate of 46.6% is also the highest he’s ever produced. His average fastball velocity has been 92.1 MPH, over a mile per hour higher (90.9) than he threw in his 17 win campaign in 2008.
 
Despite his abysmal numbers, there is reason for optimism. Floyd has delivered only 4 quality starts all season, and 3 of those QS came in his last 4 outings. In those 3 QS he K’d 20 against only 5 BB in 19 1/3 innings. He did throw in a 2 2/3 6 ER disaster in between those starts, but we’re trying to accentuate the positive. His line drive % is down, so eventually those groundballs with eyes will find some gloves. With a bit of good fortune and improved run prevention in RISP situations, Floyd’s numbers should slowly creep back towards his traditional pitching line. He makes for a great buy low option (if he’s not on the waiver wire) and should be solid piece for fantasy rotations in the second half.