And now I have to spend an hour or two looking at their names and discussing them.  I will not enjoy this preview, but I hope you do and that you take some useful info from it.

There has been some conversation over at Fangraphs recently about how Cain has been able to keep fly balls from leaving the park so consistently over his five-year career. HR/FB rate is thought of as something that is somewhat variable and not always completely within the pitcher’s control. For Cain, factors such as a favorable park and an emphasis on keeping the ball down in the zone have been mentioned as possibilities. The follow up question to that inquiry is whether he can keep it the low HR/FB rate going.

I would say he has a pretty good track record at this point and is still in the same favorable home ballpark.  When you add Cain’s consistency in the strikeout department and his improved control (which helped him post a 1.08 WHIP last year) to his ability to keep balls in the yard, you get a top-20, maybe even top-15, pitcher.

But I would like to submit to you these facts from Sanchez’s 2010 numbers: his BABIP was 37 points lower than his career average, his strand rate was over seven percent higher than his career average, his ERA was below 4.00 for the first time in his career despite his FIP and xFIP remaining in the fours, and his control still sucks (4.47 BB/9).  

I would, without a doubt, rather have Daniel Hudson (40), Hiroki Kuroda (41), Ted Lilly (43), and Ricky Romero (54). I just do not see how a guy who will be average in wins and ERA, is a potential WHIP killer (combined WHIP of 1.40 in 2008 and 2009), and only stands out in K’s is a borderline top-30 option.

Bill James has him projected for 12 wins, and with Bumgarner likely to throw somewhere between 175 and 190 innings, 12 wins seems like the high end for his wins projection.  

He is no strikeout stud either. In 107 innings at AA Bumgarner had a 5.80 K/9, and in 82.2 innings at AAA he had a 6.42 K/9. Not exactly what I would call overpowering lesser minor league talent.  What the kid does do well is throw strikes (has good BB/9 numbers at every level).  But a low walk total does not always translate to stellar WHIP.  

Between AAA and the majors, Bumgarner has given up over a hit per inning. So, if his WHIP was just a HIP (WHIP minus the walks, obviously), it would be a 1.06.  Add the walks to that and there is little chance Bumgarner gets the WHIP under 1.25 in 2011.  

There is nothing wrong with a 1.30-ish WHIP, but when that is supposed to be your strength, you are probably not a strong starting pitching option.

Since 2006, Zito has been remarkably consistent if you exclude the train wreck he had in 2008.  He usually posts about ten wins along with an ERA near four, a WHIP between 1.35 and 1.40, and a K/9 around 6.00. While not usable in mixed leagues, consistent numbers like that have value in NL-only leagues.  

There is always the risk that Zito has another train wreck in 2011, but he should be a solid fourth or fifth starter for NL-only owners.