Daily Fantasy Hockey Strategy: March 18, 2017
Below we’ve got positional rankings and commentary on the top plays for Saturday night’s eight-game slate of NHL DFS contests.
As always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.
Connor McDavid — EDM vs. VAN — DK: $8100 — FD: $8800
McDavid is quite obviously the chalk tonight. Edmonton has the highest implied total in Vegas against the Canucks who are starting third-string netminder Richard Bachman. Feel free to fade McJesus in GPPs, but fit him into cash lineups if at all possible. He’ll be easier to fit in on FD where pricing is generally a bit softer.
Auston Matthews — TOR vs. CHI — DK: $7100 — FD: $6700
Nazem Kadri —TOR vs. CHI — DK: $5900 — FD: $6600
Toronto has the fourth highest implied total in Vegas and the second highest expected total according to my own model. With Chicago a bit banged up in the top six, I have no issues using lines facing the Toews and Kane lines, which will be the Matthews and Kadri lines. I’d get my TOR exposure with Matthews on FD and Kadri on DK where they’re respectively priced better.
Martin Hanzal — MIN vs. NYR — DK: $4200 — FD: $4700
Hanzal is a bit iffy as he’s returning a bit earlier than expected from a virus, and he’s unlikely to see PP time. But I like the matchup for Hanzal’s line as they should avoid the toughest individual matchup with New York’s top line. There’s probably a winger from Hanzal’s line that’s a better bet for MIN exposure, but Hanzal’s line is an appealing stack option in GPPs.
Tomas Hertl — SJ v. ANA — DK: $4500 — FD: $4300
Anaheim is a solid possession team largely up and down the lineup. But Hertl should see the better of the line matchups playing on the third line. He should also be on the second PP unit. He’s admittedly been cold of late, so he may be more GPP salary relief than cash.
Mike Fisher — NSH @ CAR — DK: $3800 — FD: $4500
Outside of their top line, Carolina does not have any tough possession matchups, and Carolina’s top line will match up with the Johansen line since it’s a home game for the Canes. Fisher’s wingers, Fiala and Smith, lead the Preds in individual scoring chances generated per 60 (iSCF60), so that line is a cheap option to do some damage this evening. Fisher is particularly good salary relief on DK.
Max Pacioretty — MTL @ OTT — DK: $6500 — FD: $7500
Pacioretty feels like a damn near must play on DK at that price. He has been shooting the puck at an extreme clip lately with 20 SOG in his last four and at least four SOG in eight of his last nine.
Alex Ovechkin — WAS @ TB — DK: $7900 — FD: $7800
Like Pacioretty is listed here because of his price on one site, Ovi is listed here because of his price on FD. He’s been going through a rough spell lately, and it has driven his price down on FD to very tempting levels. With the pricing generally softer on FD to begin with, Ovi isn’t difficult to fit in there at all.
Zach Parise — MIN v. NYR — DK: $5800 — FD: $6400
Parise is the Hanzal winger mentioned above who might be a better way to get some MIN exposure, at least on DK where he’s priced well. Parise has not been shooting the puck much of late, which makes him a bit risky. But he leads the team in ixG60 and iSCF60 this season, and, again, his line should avoid the tougher matchups.
Vladimir Tarasenko — STL @ ARI — DK: $7100 — FD: $8200
Jaden Schwartz — STL @ ARI — DK: $5100 — FD: $5700
Tarasenko and Schwartz will be on the wings of Paul Stastny, and the trio will remain together on a power play unit. Senko has been excellent of late with six goals and 26 SOG in his last six. He’s priced a bit more affordably on DK. Schwartz hasn’t scored in a minute, but he is racking up assists playing with Tarasenko.
James Neal — NSH @ CAR — DK: $5000 — FD: $5300
Neal will also avoid the matchup against Carolina’s top line, and he’ll join Nashville’s top line skaters on the #1 PP unit. He has points in five straight and goals in three straight.
Patrick Maroon — EDM v. VAN — DK: $5200 — FD: $5100
If you can’t afford McDavid, Maroon is a cheaper alternative for Edmonton exposure, and he gives you McJesus exposure as they play together on the top line and top PP unit. Unfortunately, Maroon is a better value on FD, but that’s also the site where it should be easier to roster McDavid.
Charlie Coyle — MIN v. NYR — DK: $4900 — FD: $3900
Coyle’s line is a little more likely than the Parise/Hanzal line to have the tough matchup against NYR’s top line. But Coyle’s line should miss that matchup as well if Minnesota lets the Koivu line handle the opposing top line like they did in their last home game. Coyle is priced extremely well on FD and is definitely an option for Minny exposure there as he’s playing on a top six line and seeing PP work.
Ryan Hartman — CHI @ TOR — DK: $3900 — FD: $3400
Hartman’s third line should have a nice matchup tonight against Toronto’s weakest possession line, centered by Tyler Bozak. Bozak’s line almost always gets opposing third lines in home games. Last game he saw work onthe second PP unit and is a nice salary relief option, especially on FD.
Craig Smith — NSH @ CAR — DK: $3200 — FD: $3400
Kevin Fiala — NSH @ CAR — DK: $3400 — FD: $3300
Smith and Fiala will be on Fisher’s wings, and Fiala will join Fisher on the second PP unit. Both of these wingers have excellent fancy stats like ixG60 and iSCF60, and they make for viable salary relief options on either site.
John Carlson — WAS @ TB — DK: $5400 — FD: 5000
Only Brent Burns and Dustin Byfuglien rank higher among defensemen in ixG60, and only Byfuglien ranks higher in iSCF60. Carlson would be a better option if the Caps weren’t giving Kevin Shattenkirk a spot on the top PP unit over Carlson, but Carlson is still seeing work on the second unit. He’s priced very well on FD and is an option on either site if you want some Caps exposure but can’t afford Ovi.
Oscar Klefbom — EDM v. VAN — DK: $5400 — FD: $4600
Klefbom’s price on FD has been and remains ridiculous. Don’t feel the need to pay for him on DK, but he’s very tough to pass on over on FD with that price and a spot on the top PP unit with McDavid.
Jared Spurgeon — MIN v. NYR — DK: $4900 — FD: $4800
Spurgeon is on a long scoring drought, but he has solid ixG60 and iSCF60 numbers among defensemen. He also sees a healthy amount of work on the power play.
Justin Faulk — CAR v. NSH — DK: $5100 — FD: $4800
Faulk is listed here simply because his price remains too low on FD. That said, almost all defensemen here are priced better on FD than DK. Carolina doesn’t rank highly in implied totals, so Faulk is really only a GPP option.
Jeff Petry — MTL @ OTT — DK: $3900 — FD: $3800
Call this a hunch. Petry has solid individual possession numbers, he sees power play time on the second unit, and he’s good salary relief if you need it.
Cam Talbot — EDM v. VAN — DK: $8300 — FD: $8600
Devan Dubnyk — MIN v. NYR — DK: $7800 — FD: $8600
Here are your cash game options for the evening. Talbot and the Oil are easily the biggest favorites of the night with about a 72 percent chance of winning per the money line. Dubnyk and the Wild are also a solid favorite with a 64 percent chance of winning. Dubnyk is really only an option over Talbot on DK where Dubs is noticeably cheaper. But over on FD, it’s hard to pas on Talbot when his team is the biggest favorite and he’s priced so reasonably. Dubnyk would work as a GPP option on either site, but Talbot is the chalk best used in cash games.
Carey Price — MTL @ OTT — DK: $7600 — FD: $9300
Price is only listed here in case you need to save an extra $200 on DK in cash games. Otherwise, Dubnyk or Talbot is your guy on that site, and Price is not priced for use on FD.
Juuse Saros — NSH @ CAR — DK: $7900 — FD: $8100
Frederik Anderson — TOR v. CHI — DK: $7200 — FD: $8500
Here are your GPP options for the night, Andersen on DK and Saros on FD. They’re not priced for use on the opposite site. Anderson couldn’t be considered for cash on DK but Saros could on FD. The Preds are a slight favorite on the road at -135, and Saros is cheaper than both Talbot and Dubs there.