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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: January 25, 2016

Monday is a great day for NBA fans, as the top two teams in the league will square off when the Spurs travel to Golden State to face the Warriors. There are eight lesser games on the slate as well, so let’s get right to the Vegas lines and see how this slate lines up.

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Vegas lines and totals

Minnesota @ Cleveland (-13.5) – total of 202
Boston @ Washington (-2.5) – total of 212.5
Orlando @ Memphis (-6) – total of 191
Miami @ Chicago (-8) – total of 190.5
Houston @ New Orleans (-5) – total of 214
Detroit @ Utah (-2) – total of 193
Atlanta (-5) @ Denver – total of 205.5
Charlotte @ Sacramento (-6.5) – total of 211.5
San Antonio @ Golden State (-5) – total of 209.5

Spurs-Warriors has a high over/under, but it’s not exactly a game I’m super excited to pick players from. On the late-night short slates, I will absolutely have a piece, and possibly a sizable one, but a solid nine-game night means it’s possible to find good value elsewhere. In the end, sometimes it’s more fun to just enjoy top-notch basketball without a stake in it. So who are the top plays of Monday night? I’m glad you asked.

POINT GUARD

Stephen Curry – Sorry, I couldn’t help myself. Stephen Curry has been playing at another level of late and is obviously fully recovered from the shin issues that forced him out of a few games earlier a couple weeks ago. Curry is averaging almost 34 points per game over his last eight games, has two straight double-doubles and had a triple-double in his last outing. None of those were typos. Tony Parker doesn’t stand a chance Monday night.

Kemba Walker – Speaking of playing at another level, Walker has been playing some of the best basketball in the league outside of Curry. A nice matchup with the Kings doesn’t exactly seem like the recipe to slow down Walker, who’s averaging nearly 35 points per game over his last four games with two games of 40-plus and one of 52. You can’t go wrong with either of these guys Monday.

Cheap risk option: Playing consistent basketball off the Utah bench, Trey Burke has hit value in four straight games and five out of six. There’s always upside in taking Burke if you get him on a night his three-point shot is falling, and the Pistons are an above-average matchup for opposing point guards.

SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden – I’m not sure I’ve ever had consecutive slates where I’ve recommended the same three players at one position. A lot of times I’ll double dip with one guy, but shooting guard is the rare exception Monday. Harden continues to feast without Dwight Howard around, and the Pelicans aren’t exactly a defensive stalwart. The Beard has played well on back-to-back sets this year, so don’t worry about him in that sense.

Avery Bradley – Avery Bradley continues to flirt with 20 points on a consistent basis and gets another juicy matchup Monday against the Wizards after getting to face the 76ers on Sunday. Bradley would’ve had a better game if Sunday’s tilt didn’t turn into a blowout, and it will be tough for the Celtics to blow out the Wizards in Washington. Shooting guard is a tough position to find consistency in the mid tier, so lock Bradley in if that’s your goal.

Cheap risk option: I should have just copy/pasted Sunday’s advice, but Evan Turner is once again a solid GPP play off the Boston bench. All three of Harden, Bradley and Turner met value Sunday and I’m expecting more of the same Monday. Turner fell a rebound shy of his third straight 10-5-5 game, and Eric Gordon‘s injury has sapped the Pelicans of backcourt depth. Turner should be in for another decent night at a bargain price.

SMALL FORWARD

Aaron Gordon – Value is the name of the game at SF on Monday, and Gordon is the poster boy. Foul trouble kept him from exploding Friday against the Hornets, but he still posted a respectable 10-point, seven-rebound, four-assist game in 24 minutes. With minutes in the 30s waiting if he can avoid being “overexcited” (his words), points in the 30s should follow against a Grizzlies team whose weakness is on the wing.

Corey Brewer – As long as the Rockets continue to trot out their small-ball lineup in Dwight Howard‘s absence, Brewer will be a recommended value play. Even before moving into the first five, Brewer had put together three solid outings off the bench and he’s essentially a lock for 20 fantasy points at a really cheap price. If you want to pay for studs like Curry, Harden and DeMarcus Cousins—more on him shortly—Brewer should help you make it happen.

Cheap risk option: The irony of finding good value at a position is what it does as far as limiting cheap GPP-only options. There is very little as far as attractive SF value beyond Gordon and Brewer, so I’m going to plug the cheapest player I’m willing to play. Dante Cunningham never brings great upside to the table, but at near-minimum price with a good chance to see 30 minutes of court time, it’s possible some stats find their way to him. He’s nothing more than a pure punt to fit the studs in, but you never know.

POWER FORWARD

DeMarcus Cousins – Boogie has been on fire of late, and I think I’ve played him every single night the Kings have played for the past week or two. I’m not going to stop Monday, and Cousins is again my top star of the night with a matchup against a beat-up Charlotte frontcourt. Does anybody think Marvin Williams or Spencer Hawes have even the slightest chance of containing Cousins? If you do, stop reading immediately and call a shrink. Anthony Davis is a nice option too, but I’m not fading Cousins for him even to save $1,000. I wouldn’t even do it for $2,000.

David West – With Tim Duncan ruled out for Monday’s big showdown, West should slide into the starting lineup and see around 25 minutes of playing time. The Warriors haven’t been stout against big men this season with Andrew Bogut struggling to stay on the court, and West is a very good per-minute producer. At his price, he’s well worth a cheap cash play to fit in the studs Monday.

Injury play: Darrell ArthurKenneth Faried is a walking injury this season, and Arthur has been the major beneficiary. If Faried is once again forced to the sideline Monday, Arthur walks right into a matchup with the Hawks, who allow fantasy points by the boatload to power forwards and centers as a result of their struggles on the glass. Arthur isn’t exactly an elite rebounder, but he’d still represent a nice source of cheap value Monday and should pull down more than his average of 4.1 boards if he gets the nod.

Cheap risk option: I like going back to the well when something works, but only when there’s good reason to dip my toes in again. Josh Smith‘s still-depressed price is plenty reason for me to give him another shout as a GPP options at the PF spot. Smith fills the stat sheet when he gets the playing time, just as he did Sunday against the Mavericks. Facing Anthony Davis and the Pelicans is almost the polar opposite as far as matchups go, but Smith will get to face Ryan Anderson a lot at PF too. There is some matchup risk, but Smith’s price is worth a shot.

CENTER

Spencer Hawes – Just like small forward, center is a value spot Monday night. Both Hawes and Cauley-Stein have well outperformed their prices in their past few games, and Hawes has gotten minutes in the 30s with Cody Zeller sidelined. The matchup with the Kings is promising, and Hawes is a player to take advantage of in DFS until his price levels off.

Willie Cauley-Stein – Cauley-Stein is in a similar boat to Hawes, except his opportunity came when he recovered from an injury of his own. Regardless, Rudy Gay‘s absence has been a slight boost for WCS but Cauley-Stein was playing well even with Gay in the lineup. A potential Gay return Monday won’t scare me off Cauley-Stein in a good matchup with the Hornets. Sacramento-Charlotte is a game to target bigs in, apparently.

Cheap risk option: The definition of a boom-bust play, Kelly Olynyk‘s playing time is the NBA equivalent of a yo-yo. When Jared Sullinger and Amir Johnson are playing well, Olynyk is stuck with the scraps. There’s enough inconsistency between the two of them that Olynyk could explode on any given night, though. Frank Kaminsky isn’t a bad option either, although he’s struggling of late and hasn’t benefited at all from Zeller’s absence. If anything, that means he’ll be low owned. Just like with SF, the value plays at C are cash-worthy, and there isn’t too much else available on the real low rungs of the pricing spectrum.

CASH GAME RANKS

This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.

PG
1) Kemba Walker
2) Beno Udrih (if he starts)
2) Patrick Beverley
3) Rajon Rondo
4) Mike Conley
5) Stephen Curry
6) Derrick Rose
7) Isaiah Thomas
8) Jeremy Lin
9) Emmanuel Mudiay

SG
1) Avery Bradley
2) James Harden
3) Tyreke Evans
4) Kyle Korver
5) Garrett Temple
6) Rodney Hood
7) Gary Harris
8) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

SF
1) Jae Crowder
2) Kent Bazemore
3) Rudy Gay (if he plays)
4) Corey Brewer
5) Aaron Gordon
6) Omri Casspi (if Gay sits)
7) Danilo Gallinari
8) Matt Barnes
9) LeBron James
10) Gordon Hayward
11) Trevor Ariza

PF
1) DeMarcus Cousins
2) David West
3) Anthony Davis
4) LaMarcus Aldridge
5) Darrell Arthur (if Kenneth Faried sits)
6) Nene Hilario
7) Marvin Williams
8) Clint Capela

C
1) Spencer Hawes
2) Willie Cauley-Stein
3) Al Horford
4) Marcin Gortat
5) Marc Gasol
6) Jared Sullinger
7) Rudy Gobert
8) Nikola Jokic

As always, I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day if at possible and before the first game starts at 7 p.m., so follow me on Twitter @christripodi for last-minute updates and suggestions.

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