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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: November 9, 2015

Sunday’s short slate looked boring to start and with the Lakers-Knicks game coming in 15 points under its projection, the only thing that saved it was high-scoring games between the Suns and Thunder and the Pistons and Blazers. If you found a way to get my top plays like Kristaps Porzingis, Andre Drummond, Eric Bledsoe, Russell Westbrook and Robin Lopez or some combination of the five in a lineup together, you likely did pretty well. Monday is back with seven games, and a lot more meat on the bone.

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Vegas lines and totals

Chicago Bulls (-7.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers – total of 197
Orlando Magic @ Indiana Pacers (-3.5) – total of 195
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Atlanta Hawks (-9) – total of 203
Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets (-1.5) – total of 208
San Antonio Spurs (-8) @ Sacramento Kings – total of 206
Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Clippers (-6) – total of 197
Detroit Pistons @ Golden State Warriors (-13.5) – total of 210

As usual, the West Coast games stand out barring any time the Grizzlies play and many of the picks below will be centered around those contests, especially with Chris Paul listed as doubtful for the Clippers. As is daily tradition, here is a reminder of the DraftKings scoring system.

Point = +1 PT
Made 3pt. shot = +0.5 PTs
Rebound = +1.25 PTs
Assist = +1.5 PTs
Steal = +2 PTs
Block = +2 PTs
Turnover = -0.5 PTs
Double-Double = +1.5PTs (MAX 1 PER PLAYER: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals)
Triple-Double = +3PTs (MAX 1 PER PLAYER: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals)

Now, for the top options and values at each position:

POINT GUARD

Rajon Rondo ($6,500) – It might be tough to swallow Rondo as a top option in cash games but it worked with Darren Collison ruled out late on Saturday, and I expect it to work again today with Collison still out. Rondo played a whopping 44 minutes and anytime he gets that kind of playing time, he’s a legitimate threat for 50 DK points. He went for 62.5 against the Warriors and now gets Tony Parker and the below-average Spurs’ point guard defense. Seth Curry could play and help George Karl keep Rondo under 40 minutes, but he’s still a solid bet for 35-40 fantasy points with minutes in the mid-high 30s. Karl won’t have a choice but to play him.

Reggie Jackson ($7,400) – Jackson has over 40 fantasy points in three of his last four games, and has been below 30 just once. The Pistons are playing well up in pace against the Warriors, and opposing point guards have been posting good numbers against Golden State, right Rajon? The 13-point spread and second night of a back-to-back present some risk here, but Jackson should approach 40 fantasy points unless Detroit is down by 25 after three.

Damian Lillard ($8,500) – What? No Stephen Curry? Curry is certainly in play tonight, but there are just a couple options I like better dollar for dollar. One of those is Lillard, who is still underpriced and gets a great matchup against rookie Emmanuel Mudiay and the Nuggets. He’ll probably score more points that Rondo and Jackson tonight, so feel free to pay up if you have some extra money.

Cheap risk option: Jameer Nelson ($3,800) – The cheap point guards don’t look too exciting tonight, and it was between Nelson and Patty Mills for this spot. Nelson gets in on the strength of a slightly better matchup, the fact that he sees a few more minutes than Mills and the potential for Mudiay to get roasted by Lillard, leaving some extra minutes for the veteran. There’s 25-point upside here.

SHOOTING GUARD

Will Barton ($4,700) – If you read this piece consistently, well, let’s just say you’ve seen this name as a cheap risk option a few times already this season. Barton is no longer cheap and he played 39 minutes in a starting role Friday. If he maintains his starting spot and sees upwards of 35-40 minutes, another massive line would not surprise against the Blazers. If Barton moves back to the bench though, he’ll tumble out of the top three here. It’s a definite possibility, as his start may have been matchup-related against Golden State.

C.J. McCollum ($6,500) – Since his price skyrocketed after opening night, McCollum has held steady both in terms of cost and production. He’s scored between 29.25 and 34.5 DK points in five of six games since and gets a great matchup against the Nuggets, one in which we should expect him to be near the higher end of his recent range.

Danny Green ($4,300) – Green hasn’t exactly been cash-game safe so far this year, which explains his $800 price drop from opening night. He has produced at least 20 fantasy points in three of his last four games and has a nice matchup with the Kings on tap. You could do worse if you’re looking to go cheap at SG and pay up elsewhere, although Barton is just $400 more if he starts.

Cheap risk option: Allen Crabbe ($3,000) – Crabbe has come on a bit in his last two games, scoring 18.75 and 24.5 DK points at minimum price. It helps that he’s shot a combined 12 of 14 from the field, including making all seven of his field-goal attempts Sunday against the Pistons. Riding Crabbe while he’s hot as a GPP punt isn’t a bad move and as I said earlier, Denver isn’t a tough matchup.

SMALL FORWARD

Jerami Grant ($3,900) – I’m not overly enamored with any of the high-priced options at SF today, so I’ll likely go cheap like I did Saturday night with Lance Stephenson, who gave me 19.75 fantasy points for $3,200. Since moving into the starting lineup three games ago, Grant has averaged over 22 DK points per game, with a low of 18. Locking in Grant here allows you to pay up for my top plays at power forward and center.

Lance Stephenson ($3,200) – Sticking with the cheap theme, Stephenson could have another decent showing with Chris Paul doubtful Monday, although his minutes, shot attempts and assists all stayed around his season averages. Then again, getting 15-17 fantasy points from a near-minimum player is palatable if your higher-priced players hit.

Kawhi Leonard ($8,100) – If you’re inclined to pay up at small forward Monday, Leonard is a slightly better option than Paul George despite George coming off three straight games with 50-plus fantasy points. It’s possible fading George at his price will come back to bite me, and it has once or twice so far this season, but only on turbo slates with two or three games. Leonard gets the better matchup tonight and has similar upside to George. I have other high-priced targets though.

Cheap risk option: Doug McDermott ($3,200) – McDermott hasn’t exactly blown the doors off in his two starts with 25.75 total DK points, but a shooter can always get hot early, especially against a team like the 76ers. Dougie McBuckets is worth a flier at this price point, but don’t expect miracles.

POWER FORWARD

Blake Griffin ($9,600) – It’s generally wise to avoid the Grizzlies-Clippers game tonight, but Griffin is a usage monster without Chris Paul. Even in a potential low-scoring game with an average matchup against Zach Randolph, Griffin is one of the top options on Monday’s slate. If Paul surprisingly plays, however, I’ll be off Griffin almost entirely in a game the Clippers are playing down in pace.

J.J. Hickson ($4,000) – If Barton doesn’t start for the Nuggets, Hickson will. Unless Joffrey Lauvergne returns, which is officially questionable. Hopefully we get word during the day so I can adjust the rankings accordingly but like Barton, Hickson is a nice play tonight if he starts. The Blazers have struggled against opposing centers this season and Hickson is just a few hundred underpriced if he sees 25 minutes, which he generally has in the starting five.

Tim Duncan ($6,000) – The Spurs are playing well up in pace Monday night, and Duncan is one of their few players whose production matches his price. Duncan has a nice matchup with the Kings, even if DeMarcus Cousins can return, and is the best mid-tier option on the board Monday. If Cousins plays, feel free to jump Jordan Hill into this spot if C.J. Miles remains out, but the Kings don’t even defend centers well with Cousins in the lineup.

Cheap risk option: Nemanja Bjelica ($4,300) – Bjelica’s breakout game Saturday was fueled by overtime, as the rookie got all the extra minutes that Kevin Garnett doesn’t play. He should be back under 30 minutes Monday night, but his ability to fill up the stat sheet gives him legitimate 30-point upside, even though he’s only done it once this season. Sometimes, you have to be ahead of the curve.

CENTER

Andre Drummond ($9,100) – Drummond has double-doubled in all (six) games this season, including (five) games over 18 points and four with 17 or more rebounds. Sorry for the parentheses, but I just needed to include the same opening sentence from yesterday’s rankings to prove a point about how consistent Drummond has been. Andrew Bogut‘s return does nothing to move the needle against a beast like Drummond, and a price jump is coming ASAP. Enjoy the potential final ride on this sub-$10,000 train.

Dewayne Dedmon ($4,600) – With Nikola Vucevic still out, Dedmon gets a great matchup with the Pacers and has a great chance to repeat his 31.25-point effort from Saturday and is a near-lock for 25 fantasy points barring foul trouble. The risk of that is lower tonight as he faces off against Ian Mahinmi, who never has touches manufactured for him in the Indiana offense.

Al Horford ($7,100) – Horford is rarely a sexy option, but he’s as steady as they come for cash-game play. He has just one game with fewer than 30 fantasy points this season, as he checked in with 29.25 against the Wizards on Saturday. Atlanta will be playing up in pace against Minnesota on Monday and while Karl-Anthony Towns has been great this season, he’s not yet a player to shy away from in DFS. Horford’s floor is rock-solid, even if his upside is limited with just two games over 40 DK points this season.

Cheap risk option: Meyers Leonard ($3,900) – Leonard was in this spot for Sunday’s slate and came back with 22 points, a solid return at his price on a five-game night. He’s played 27 and 33 minutes in his past two games, which means he’s a good bet for 20 points against with the upside to push 30. A matchup with Kenneth Faried isn’t imposing, as the Manimal may have trouble keeping up with Leonard on the perimeter.

Cash Game Ranks

This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.

PG
1) Rajon Rondo
2) Reggie Jackson
3) Damian Lillard
4) Emmanuel Mudiay
5) Stephen Curry
6) T.J. McConnell
7) George Hill

SG
1) Will Barton (if he starts)
2) C.J. McCollum
3) Danny Green
4) Kyle Korver
5) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

SF
1) Jerami Grant
2) Lance Stephenson
3) Kawhi Leonard
4) Paul George

PF
1) Blake Griffin
2) J.J. Hickson
3) Tim Duncan
4) Jordan Hill (if he starts)
5) LaMarcus Aldridge

C
1) Andre Drummond
2) Dewayne Dedmon
3) Al Horford
4) Meyers Leonard
5) Karl-Anthony Towns

As always, stay locked to Twitter and Rotoworld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first game tips at 7 p.m. EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day, but the best way to get the latest is always to follow me on Twitter @christripodi, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes.
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