Fantasy Football

2011 NFL Monday Night Football Preview Week 12: Can The Giants Ruin The Saints Parade?

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Eli Manning (credits below)

Welcome back from Thanksgiving break, folks! Hopefully you’ve all emerged from your tryptophan haze and are ready for what should be an exciting Monday Night Football matchup between the Giants and Saints. Before we get to our normal preview, I want to put tonight’s game in context for you with a look ahead at the next two MNF games: Chargers/Jaguars and Seahawks/Rams (insert Debbie Downer noise here). It gets a little better in Weeks 15 and 16 with the Steelers/49ers and Falcons/Saints, but let’s enjoy tonight while we can!

With only five weeks left, it’s definitely not too early to start looking at playoff matchups. If the season ended today, here’s what we’d be looking at (take these with a grain of salt since some are based on tiebreakers):

AFC
First-Round Byes: Houston and New England

Wild Card Matchups: Cincinnati at Baltimore, Pittsburgh at Oakland

NFC
First-Round Byes: Green Bay and San Francisco

Wild Card Matchups: Chicago at Dallas, Atlanta at New Orleans

Before we take a look at tonight, let’s take a quick look at what happened in the rest of the Week 12 games. I’m sure most of you saw this, but the Packers continued their quest towards perfection with a big Thanksgiving Day victory over the Lions (and yes, Ndamukong Suh a dirty player but let’s not get carried away…it’s not like he killed anyone!). Elsewhere on Turkey Day…Tony Romo avenged Leon Lett and took down the Dolphins, while the Ravens won a defensive struggle over the 49ers in the Harbaugh Bowl.

In the early games yesterday…Matt Ryan’s 3 TDs led the Falcons to victory over the Vikings, Andy Dalton led the Bengals to a comeback win over the Browns, and there was a Chris Johnson sighting in Tennessee as the Titans moved to 6-5 in beating the Buccaneers. Elsewhere, the Texans overcame Matt Leinart’s apparent season-ending shoulder injury to beat the Jaguars, and the Bills weren’t able to overcome a dumb penalty and a costly drop by Stevie Johnson in a 28-24 defeat to the Jets. The last of the early games included some nice rushing performances as DeAngelo Williams’ 2 TDs led the Panthers to a victory over the winless Colts, and Beanie Wells’ 228 yard game powered the Cardinals over the Rams.

And in the late games on Sunday…Patriots dismantled the “Dream Team” Eagles in Philadelphia, the Raiders held off the Caleb Hanie-led Bears in Oakland, the Redskins won a “thriller” over the Seahawks, and Tim Tebow did it again in leading the Broncos to an overtime victory in San Diego. Oh ya, I almost forgot since this game put me to sleep last night…but the Steelers won a “barnburner” over the Chiefs, 13-9, in the Sunday Night game.

I feel like I say this every week, but tonight’s game is a match up of teams going in two different directions. The Saints are 7-3 and riding a two-game win streak, while the Giants are 6-4 and trying to break a two-game slide. As the Saints try to keep a game up on the Falcons and the Giants try to keep pace with the Cowboys, Eli Manning’s New Orleans homecoming should prove quite interesting tonight…

Giants fans are probably sick of reading stuff like this year after year, but after starting 6-2, the G-Men seem like they’re ready to start their annual late-season slide. They’re coming off a BAD loss to the Eagles in which they only put up 28 rushing yards against one of the league’s worst run defenses, and are again without Ahmad Bradshaw tonight. The offensive line is hurting, their run offense is ranked 32nd in the league, and their normally stout defense is ranked 20th in both passing and rushing yards allowed. Ok, I’ll stop piling on there and point out the silver lining here: the Giants do boast the league’s 4th-ranked passing offense. If Big Blue is going to right the ship, they’re going to have to rely on the likes of Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, and Victor Cruz tonight (and that’s music to fantasy owners’ ears). All that being said, Eli’s last trip to the bayou wasn’t all that fruitful (178 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) and while I realize Tom Coughlin has that 2008 Super Bowl under his belt…he might be staring the unemployment line in the face this offseason if they don’t turn things around quickly.

If Coughlin’s going to get the Giants on-track, he couldn’t have asked for a worse opponent. The Saints are 4-0 at home this year and have had two full weeks to prepare for this game (they haven’t played since November 13th). Furthermore, Drew Brees comes into this game leading the NFL in passing yards, which (obviously) has led to the Saints being ranked 1st in the league in passing yardage as well. Statistically, the only downsides to the Saints so far this year are that their rushing offense is ranked right in the middle of the league (14th), while their defense has been just good enough (22nd against the pass and 19th against the run). They’ve been very up-and-down (beating the Falcons, but losing to the Rams), but they do play four of their next six at home and look ready to roll into the postseason as Brees chases Dan Marino’s single-season record for passing yards.

With two statistically porous pass defenses, this one has all the makings of a shoot-out and that’s great news for Brees/Manning/Colston/Nicks/Graham/Cruz owners. Rushing-wise, it should be tough sledding for Brandon Jacobs and the Saints’ three-headed RB monster (Ingram, Sproles, Thomas) so I’m not expecting much in terms of fantasy points there. If anything, I think Sproles and Thomas will have the best day of the bunch as they should see a good amount of screen passes and check-downs in the face of the Giants pass rush. In the end, I just don’t see the Giants offense being able to hang with the Saints and I might lose some Giants readers with this one, but I’m going with a prediction of 27-17, Saints.

As always, let’s end with a quick look at some of top fantasy-related news from Sunday:

–       If any of you out there know Miles Austin, could you please do me a favor and ask him to take his time coming back? I’m enjoying Laurent Robinson’s recent streak (7 TDs in his last 5 games) WAY too much for Austin to ruin it…

–       Last weeks’ top waiver pick-up, Kevin Smith, suffered an ankle sprain on Thanksgiving and if he misses any time, Maurice Morris looks like the guy to own in Detroit.

–       Sorry Andre Johnson owners, but I think Matt Leinart’s shoulder injury might be the death of AJ’s fantasy value this year. You don’t believe in T.J. Yates, do you? (I don’t…)

–       Mike Shanahan was apparently in a Roy Helu kind-of-mood yesterday as the rookie tallied 23 carries for 108 yards and a TD, while adding 7 catches for 54 yards. I’m picking Helu up again this week where I can, but I still think starting him on your fantasy team is absolute lunacy.

–       Peyton Hillis made a re-appearance in Cleveland with 19 carries for 65 yards yesterday. I think he’s worth a pickup if someone dropped him, but like Helu…I think you’re setting yourself up for disappointment if you’re starting him week-to-week.

Written by Trader X exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Trader X is a top-50 gamer on a major fantasy sports website, and is the founder of www.FantasyTrade411.com. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @FantasyTrade411


(November 19, 2011 – Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images North America)


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