2015 Fantasy Football Daily Fix: Week 2 Wide Recievers
Welcome to Wide Receiver Wednesday at the Daily Fix! Each Wednesday of the NFL regular season I’ll provide you with several receiving options that are strong plays that week at DraftKings. Monday through Friday the Fix writers will provide you with a Daily Fix that covers each position, with a weekly roundup on Friday. Hit me up on Twitter, @RyNoonan.
The Wide Receiver position is loaded with options in this new, ever-prolific passing era of the NFL, so options abound. I’ll break it up into tiers, essentially, WR1’s, 2’s, 3’s and FLEX/deep options. We won’t get too legalistic on the tiers. The goal is to highlight players in each pricing tier, highlighting the plays and matchups in each spot.
Your WR1 and WR2’s are no-brainer starts in your normal season-long fantasy leagues. I’ll highlight them if they have an exceptional matchup or price. We’re likely going to find some inexpensive plays here week in a week out as well, due to the depth at the position. When applicable, I’ll note if the player is more of a cash game play versus a tournament option. Cash games (where roughly 40-50% of the player pool wins money) and the players that you want to use in those contests can vary drastically from a tournament option (tournaments or GPP’s where 10-15% of the pool wins money).
Scoring and other settings can be found here.
Antonio Brown – SF @ PIT ($8,800)
Ok, so I don’t want to be lazy, I take my job seriously, but what really needs to be said here? When you’re building a cash game lineup you start with Antonio Brown and you figure out the rest. His game logs are a joke. He’s functional regardless of game script because they run so many quick hits at the line to him he’s essentially an extension of their running game. His average depth of target is still strong enough to make him a tournament option since he’s their best deep threat with Martavis Bryant sidelined for the next few games. The funnel their offense through him and move him around, making him difficult to game plan against. He spent most of last season north of $9K, so I’m all-in any time he’s below that.
Julio Jones – ATL @ NYG ($8,900)
I hope Julio Jones was kind enough to buy Byron Maxwell a drink before be did him dirty on Monday night. Whoa. That wasn’t pretty. Julio hauled in 9 of his 11 targets, and appears primed for a big year if he can avoid injuries. He’s hard to roster in cash since you can roster Antonio Brown for $100 less, but he’s an exceptional tournament play. He’s likely to have Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie following all over the field on Sunday, but Jones is in play regardless of the opponent. Vegas has installed the Giants as a slight favorite here, so the game script isn’t likely to impact Jones’ fantasy ceiling.
I was on Randall Cobb ($7,400) this week until I saw how Seattle used Richard Sherman in Week 1. Cobb worked out of the slot on 89% of his Week 1 snaps, and Seattle typically relegates Sherman to the left side of the field. Last week we saw a near 50/50 split in Sherman’s snaps, increasing the probability that he tries to take away Aaron Rodgers top option this week.
Since they’re decent favorites at home and the offense is deep, A.J. Green ($7,500) is more of a GPP play but I like this spot for him. San Diego’s corners are both under 5’10” and should have their hands full with the 6’4″ speedster on the outside. Green had a quiet debut against the Raiders because that game got out of hand in a hurry, so the public isn’t likely to chase him this week.
Brandin Cooks – TB @ NO ($7,000)
Targeting top tier talent after they had a down week is a +EV strategy. Targeting a top tier talent in a matchup against one of the league’s worst secondaries is…yeah, it’s a good play. After a strong first half, Brandin Cooks was relatively quiet in Week 1, and his price has dipped slightly as well. Look for the Saints to isolate Cooks on Jonathan Banks, a much larger corner who’s going to struggle with Cooks’ breaks and shiftiness. Tampa Bay was 31st in pass DVOA against #1 WR’s last season, and I expect that to ring true this season too.
Julian Edelman – NE @ BUF ($6,700)
Buffalo’s defense is strong and really without a weakness. If the Patriots are going to have success here it’ll need to be via their quick passing game, something that Tom Brady is exceptional at. Part of why he’s so good at it is his chemistry pre-snap with Julian Edelman. Edelman is a superior run-after-the-catch wideout, and has a strong floor for cash games. With whispers of Bills’ cornerback Stephen Gilmore clamoring for the chance to cover Rob Gronkowski (good luck!), there’s a chance that Edelman’s matchup gets a boost against Ronald Darby and Nickell Robey.
Jordan Matthews – DAL @ PHI ($7,100)
We saw a glimpse of what’s possible with this Eagles offense in their Week 1 showing against the Falcons. Despite coming out flat in the first half, they were still able to push the pace and rack up fantasy goodness in the second half. More times than not, Jordan Matthews will be a part of that goodness. Working almost exclusively out of the slot, Matthews will have 5″ on Cowboys’ defensive back Tyler Patmon, who covered the slot 97% of the time in Week 1. He’s in play for both cash and tournaments.
I wouldn’t chase the Week 1 output from Keenan Allen ($7,100). While I do like him to have a decent day, the Cincinnati trio of Jones, Kirkpatrick and Hall are a much better unit than what Allen saw last week against the Lions.
Colts’ cornerback Vonte Davis graded out as the top corner in the league last season according to Pro Football Focus, and he’s spent the better part of the past few season’s eliminating the oppositions top option. Expect Brandon Marshall ($6,400) to have a quiet Sunday in Indy.
Jarvis Landry – MIA @ JAX ($5,900)
If Antonio Brown is PPR Gold then Jarvis Landry is PPR Silver. A target monster in Miami’s quick hitting passing attack, Landry is 7 for 70 waiting to happen. That’s not exceptional exciting in tournaments, but his floor is extremely safe. He has big play ability but his team doesn’t use him that way as his average depth of target (5.5) indicates. He does return punts though, so a Landry/Miami D is a nice double dip because both ‘players’ would get credit for a return touchdown.
Eric Decker – NYJ vs. IND ($5,100)
Remember that quick note on Brandon Marshall? Yup. Eric Decker will be the beneficiary of Brandon Marshall being eliminated from the game. His size will be an issue for Darius Butler and Jalil Brown and with New York opening as a 7-point dog on the road, the game script is likely to be in Decker’s favor.
Torrey Smith– SF @ PIT ($5,400)
Cortez Allen is terrible. I’m simply targeting the league’s worst cornerback here, as Allen graded out 121 out of 121 CB’s last season according to PFF. He won’t be on Smith exclusively, as San Francisco moved their wide receivers all over the field on Monday night, but Smith has the big play ability that we want in tournaments and likely will be owned in less than 10% of leagues. The price is right.
Donte Moncrief – NYJ vs. IND ($4,600)
There are a lot of targets to be had in Indianapolis right now with T.Y. Hilton likely to miss a few weeks. Andre Johnson looked like a 40-year old still trying to hold on last week and he’s likely to see a bunch of Darrell Revis as the Colts take on the Jets. That makes Donte Moncrief quite interesting. He was targeted 11 times in Week 1, catching 6 and finding the end zone. Last season’s DFS darling (for me at least) feels like a safer play than rookie Phillip Dorsett.
Allen Robinson – MIA @ JAX ($4,900)
Allen Robinson‘s Week 2 status is up in the air, but if he’s a go I like him in cash games. Again, reacting to the general public’s recency bias by targeting a strong player coming off of a bad week is something that I highly recommend. His matchup isn’t great but he’s likely to be on the positive side of the game script here.
Cole Beasley– DAL @ PHI ($3,300)
Getting Cole Beasley for near min-sal isn’t something that we’re typically highlighting here, but with pricing set prior to Dez Bryant‘s injury, we have an opportunity that must be exploited. I expect most to gravitate towards Beasley’s teammate, Terrance Williams, but I expect Beasley to return a higher point-per-dollar this week. He’s shown the ability to be a capable possession receiver in the past, and playing up in pace against the Eagles is a great spot for him. I think he’s way more cash relevant based on his low probability of finding the end zone, but I like his chances at 8+ targets this week.