2015 Fantasy Football DFS: Week 11 Quarterbacks
Welcome to TheFantasyFix.com’s eleventh installment of our DFS quarterback rankings. We will list six quarterbacks here that we think you should start based on their current price on Draftkings. The first tier is for the elite quarterbacks, the high priced big name guys with favorable matchups that everyone will likely be after. The next tier is “value”, where you will find the best value for your buck. The final tier is “contrarian” where you will spend little on your QB with the hope that they will exceed expectations and help you cash out. As always, good luck this week! I hope you take home big money.
Tier 1 – Elite
Tom Brady, New England Patriots, $8,500 – First things first, I need to get this out of my system and say the Patriots should not be undefeated. The New York Giants had that game in their hands (literally in their hands) and they let it slip away. That was the fourth time this season the Giants have blown a fourth quarter lead and went on to lose the game. I am saying this because I am a Giants fan, and I am saying this because if there is one thing the Giants love to do more than anything else in this world, it is make me unhappy. Rant over.
Brady lost his top receiver last week, Julian Edelmen, and will now be rolling with Danny Amendola as his replacement. That’s a big dropoff, but Brady can still put up Brady numbers even if they have me lined up at WR. Brady is going up against Sexy Rexy and the Buffalo Bills at home, a matchup I’m sure Rex has had marked on his calendar ever since the Bills almost came back to win against the Pats earlier this season. The first time these two teams went head-to-head this season, they combined for to score 72 points. Stack Tom Brady with Amendola or Brandon LaFell if you can for this one, as they will likely see the brunt of the action on offense. The Bills’ pass rush has been one of the worst in the league this year, which will only benefit Brady and the Pats’ offense come Monday night.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, $7,500 – Unlike Tom Brady, starting Aaron Rodgers this week comes with a good amount of risk. For one, he is on the road against a Minnesota Vikings team that currently sits atop the NFL North. The Packers also haven’t looked anything like themselves in the past three weeks, and they’re coming off a huge upset in which they let the last-place Lions beat them at home for the first time since 1991! Rodgers was brought to the ground 11 times in the loss (sacked three times), and he also injured his throwing shoulder in the process. The injury isn’t said to be anything serious, but it is something to keep in the back of your mind.
All signs are pointing to another bad week for the Packers, though I’m not buying it. Rodgers has defeated the Vikings in nine of his last 10 starts against the team, which includes an absurd 31 to 4 touchdown-interception ratio. Oh, he also holds the highest passer rating against the Vikings (119.0) than he does against any other team he has faced at least three times. This Vikings defense is a lot different than it used to be, however, ranking as one of the best in the league. It’s a prime-time matchup Sunday afternoon, though I expect Rodgers to start looking like himself again and take home the victory on Sunday.
Tier 2 – Value
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, $6,900 – I can say with confidence that even after this week’s debacle over Cam’s touchdown, he is a great pick on Draftkings this weekend. People tend to go overboard when they see a player celebrating something great they did on the field, often getting carried away and turning it into a bigger headline than it needs to be. If you don’t want to watch someone celebrate, don’t let them score. Simple as that.
Cam doesn’t have the best matchup this weekend, going up against the Redskins defense that has been the bright spot of the time (other than Kirk Cousins’ viral video). Newton has been outstanding out home this year, however, averaging 250 passing yards, 45 rushing yards, and tallying 14 touchdowns over five games. That should be enough to get you start him right there. Newton is an easy top five quarterback this week, as he should have a very nice day against the Skins’ defense as he looks to improve the team’s record to 10-0 on the year. While we’re on the topic of this game, I wouldn’t go anywhere near Cousins this week. Carolina’s defense has a league leading 14 interceptions, and has held opposing QB’s to the lowest average QBR in football. Fade!
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons, $7,100- Ok Matty Ice, every other time I’ve put you in this post you’ve proved me wrong, let’s hope you don’t do that again this weekend. Seriously, this is the last chance I’m giving Matt Ryan this season. Ryan and the Falcons take on the Andrew Luck-less Indianapolis Colts, a matchup that should heavily favor the Falcons. The Colts rank near the very bottom in pass defense and have allowed the 11th-most points to opposing QBs. This defense also loves to give up big plays down the field, which could really benefit the Falcons cough Julio Jones cough. Cornerback Vontae Davis will likely be all over Jones in this game, but even that isn’t enough to get me to fade Ryan this weekend. He hasn’t been consistent this year, but hopefully he can prove the doubters wrong. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that Vegas has the Falcons among the top teams this weekend in projected points scored. Like I said, Matt Ryan, this is your last chance.
Tier 3 – Contrarian
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders, $6,300 – Derek Carr has been terrific this season, specifically as of late, as the second year quarterback is establishing himself as one of the best in the league. For that reason, plus his matchup against the Detroit Lions this weekend, he makes a great pick for your fantasy lineup. It seems as if no matter how well Carr does, he price tag doesn’t inflate too much, which is great news for DFS players. The past four weeks, Carr has throw 13 touchdown passes to go along with over 1,200 yards passing, and it will shock nobody if he has a 300+ yard game, along with a few scores as well. Carr did exceptionally well last week against a tough Vikings defense, so he’s in line to have a big performance against a defense that gives up the second highest QB rating to opposing quarterbacks. It’s hard to go wrong here with this pick, and paying this cheap price will likely leave you with flexibility to go out and get some stud running backs or wide receivers.
Brock Osweiler, Denver Broncos, $5,000 – Let me start off by saying the obvious: Brock Osweiler is not Peyton Manning (pre 2015 Manning, that is). Brock Osweiler did not look good when he took over for Peyton last week, and he’s a big question mark headed into this week since we’ve never seen him start an NFL game before. That being said, he is not a stranger to the system in Denver, and he has the benefit of having two Pro-Bowl receivers to throw to; so there’s that. Osweiler takes on the Chicago Bears defense, who, rather surprisingly, are league average against the pass (it caught me off guard to be honest). That being said, I’m still comfortable giving him the go. This price is as cheap as you will find a quarterback this week, and there’s plenty of upside to justify taking him for your squad. This is the definition of low risk, high reward. If this pick pans out, it could be the difference in being in the money or not. Anything can happen, but I wouldn’t expect him to throw for 350 yards and three touchdowns.