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Daily Fantasy Hockey Strategy, November 19, 2015

Welcome back to another season of NHL DFS! If you’re like me, you’ve waited all summer for this—the time to build NHL lineups and watch your favourite team play! It’s early in the season, so projections and data will be a work in progress until about mid-November. In the meantime, we’ll do our best to break down which players you should be targeting and which players you need to avoid completely.

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As always, make sure to check out LeftWingLock for goalie confirmations.

Teams To Target

Let’s start with my favourite matchup of the night — the St. Louis Blues hosting the Buffalo Sabres. The Sabres are a much-improved team compared to last season, but let’s face it, the Blues are still the better team here and fantasy owners will want to have a ton of exposure to this game.

David Backes ($4600) has found his way back onto the top line with Vladimir Tarasenko ($7700) and Alexander Steen ($6500). Backes’ price is beyond appealing, and I can’t find any reason to fade him tonight. His line mates are expensive to roster, but they have the best matchup of any team playing and could be in for another big night.

If you want to go against the grain and not stack the top line, the third line of Robby Fabbri ($2800), Scott Gomez ($2700) and Troy Brouwer ($4300) is an option to consider. The trio plays together on the second power play unit and will cost you a total of $9,800 to roster. For this line to hit its value, they would need to combine for two points, which is well within their reach tonight. They’ll give you the exposure you want to this game and still allow you to pay up for other top players in other favorable matchups.

On defense, Colton Parayko ($4200) is almost a must-play every time the Blues are in action. The one problem here is Parayko is listed as day-to-day after missing Tuesday’s game with a lower body injury. For $500 more, Kevin Shattenkirk ($4700) is the player I would go with. He’s seeing time on the top power play unit and has the offensive upside you’re looking for in a defenseman. If you decide to fade the top line, Alex Pietrangelo ($5000) is the player I would stack with Gomez and company.

Finally, Jake Allen ($7300) has been pretty solid over the last few weeks, but his price tag still doesn’t reflect that. The Blues are -206 favourites to win the game—the largest margin of any team playing—making Allen an excellent start both in cash games and GPPS.

My second favourtie matchup of the night is my Montreal Canadiens hosting the Arizona Coyotes. The Habs have been an offensive powerhouse since the beginning of the season and tonight they get an Arizona team that’s 23rd in CF% this season 5v5 (48.0%) and 25th in GA/60 (2.52).

The top line of Max Pacioretty ($8100), Brendan Gallagher ($5900) and Tomas Plekanec ($6200) is always an option to consider when Montreal is playing, but their salaries are pretty high and I expect the top line to matchup against Arizona’s top line, making it even less appealing. The value here is in Montreal’s third line; David Desharnais ($4100), Dale Weise ($3700) and Tomas Fleischmann ($3900). Of course the trio doesn’t play together on the power play, but Desharnais and Weise are seeing some time on the second unit and should have no problem imposing their will against a weak Arizona defense.

I’m usually not someone that pays up for top-notch defensemen, but tonight I find it hard to pass up on P.K Subban ($6300) and Andrei Markov ($5200). If you’ve gone with some of my cheaper recommendations above, I wouldn’t hesitate to go with both Markov and Subban as a defense mini-stack. It’s not common, but it could just work out very well for fantasy owners.

As for goaltending, Mike Condon ($7400) hasn’t been as sharp lately as he was earlier in the season, but the Habs continue to be one of the best teams defensively in the league and are allowing just 1.8 GA/60. If you don’t want to go with Jake Allen, Condon makes for an excellent second option.

My third favourite matchup of the night is the San Jose Sharks in Philadelphia. I’m warning you now, every time I go with San Jose, they end up disappointing me and being the reason I don’t make any money. The Sharks just destroyed Tuukka Rask and the Boston Bruins in Boston and could easily do the same to the terrible Flyers.

The top line of Joe Pavelski ($7500), Joe Thornton ($4900) and Melker Karlsson ($3700) is the best option of the night, but as usual, DraftKings has all three listed at center (face palm emoji), making it virtually impossible to stack the top line. If I had to pick two, I would for sure recommend Pavelski/Thornton, but if you can’t fit Pavelski in your lineup, Thornton/Karlsson is a great secondary option. If you want to stack their power play, replace Karlsson with Patrick Marleau ($5800) and you have yourself a top line power play stack.

If you decide you want to go all out, Brent Burns ($7100) is a very expensive option, but he’s almost like having another forward on the ice. Stacking all four may prove to be impossible, but any combination of the above works for me.

Player Rankings

 Ranking are price sensitive

 Forwards

  1. Melker Karlsson–$3700—San Jose Sharks
  2. David Backes–$4600—St. Louis Blues
  3. Boone Jenner–$4200—Columbus Blue Jackets
  4. David Krejci–$5900—Boston Bruins
  5. David Desharnais–$4100—Montreal Canadiens
  6. Joe Pavelski–$7500—San Jose Sharks
  7. Tyler Seguin–$9000—Dallas Stars

Wingers

  1. Dale Weise—RW–$3700—Montreal Canadiens
  2. Mats Zuccarello—RW–$5400—New York Rangers
  3. Brendan Gallagher—RW–$5900—Montreal Canadiens
  4. Vladimir Tarasenko—RW–$7700—St. LouisBlues
  5. Jason Zucker—LW–$4700—Minnesota Wild
  6. Brad Marchand—LW–$5200—Boston Bruins
  7. Thomas Vanek—LW–$5100—Minnesota Wild
  8. Jamie Benn—LW–$8200—Dallas Stars

Defense

  1. Colton Parayko–$4200—St. Louis Blues
  2. Nick Holden–$3100—Colorado Avalanche
  3. Brent Burns–$7100—San Jose Sharks
  4. John Klingberg–$5500—Dllas Stars
  5. P.K. Subban–$6300—Montreal Canadiens
  6. Andrei Markov–$5200—Montreal Canadiens
  7. Torey Krug–$5600—Boston Bruins

Goalie

  1. Jake Allen–$7300—St. Louis Blues
  2. Mike Condon–$7400—Montreal Canadiens
  3. Henrik Lundqvist–$8100—New York Rangers
  4. Andrew Hammond–$7100—Ottawa Senators

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