2015 Fantasy GolfChris Garosi

Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: RSM Classic

We are back for Week 6 and our picks for Daily Fantasy Golf at DraftKings for the RSM Classic in Sea Island, Georgia. Let’s get down to business and make some money.

It’s a great week to check out DraftKings as they have some top notch contests for the final week. Come on over and take a look.

Tour Stop

Here we are. It is the final full field event of calendar year 2016.  And we are back in the United States in Sea Island Georgia at the RSM Classic (formerly the McGladrey). The RSM is held at the Sea Island Golf Club and for the first time on two different courses. The Seaside (which has held the tournament every year since 2010) is joined by the Plantation Course which will host one round on Thursday/Friday. The Seaside Course is a par-70 links course that runs 7,008 yards. The Plantation Course is a short par-72 course at only 7,033 yards.

The weather looks like it will be nice outside of Thursday where thunderstorms are possible all day long. But, after that, we see sun and some winds for the rest of the week. Check back Wednesday to see how the weather evolves as there may be a tee time advantage to be had especially with two courses in play.

Scorecard breakdown: We have two courses – the par-70 Seaside and the par-72 Plantation. The par 70 means two fewer par 5s than normal so par 4 scoring comes into play.

Field

It’s a true full field – 156 golfers in all for the final event of 2015.

The full field can be found here.

Thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.

Past Tournament Results

We have a little twist this year as the first two days will be split between two courses – the Seaside and the Plantation. The tourney has been on Tour since 2010 and has always been at the Seaside Course at Sea Island Golf Club, a par-70 links course that runs 7,008 yards. The Plantation Course is an addition to the tournament this year. It is a par-72 course, but runs 7,033 yards. The Plantation Course was recently renovated by Rees Jones.

RSM_Classic_Last_3_Top_20

Statistical Review

Most of analysis is focused on the Seaside course (as three of the four rounds are played there). So, this week, I’ll focus on:

Par 4: Birdie or Better (P4:BB) – Three of the four rounds will be played on a par-70 course so par 4 scoring will be important this week.

Driving Accuracy – Seaside is a tight course and Plantation has water everywhere. Keep it on the straight and narrow this week especially with water coming into a play a bunch. You can be the best scrambler in the world, but it’s pretty tough to play out of water.

GIR – Hand in hand with driving accuracy, we’ll look at GIR to allow the golfers to score as needed.

I also always examine Strokes Gained: Putting (SG:P) – which will be the fourth stat we focus on this week and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG:T2G) every week.

DraftKings Expert Picks

Zach Johnson | $11,500 – Johnson is one of the co-hosts (along with Davis Love III) for the RSM, Johnson has never performed well here and it’s a tough thing to figure out why. His stats fit, he’s had success on links courses, but his record is only three for five in made cuts at the RSM, but in those three weekends he’s been top 20 twice. He’s a volatile play who I think only works in GPPs this week.

Justin Thomas | $10,900 – When you think of accuracy, Thomas isn’t the first guy that comes to mind. But, his profile works otherwise – 27th in GIR, 25th in P4:BB and 95th in SG:P. He’s finished in the top five in two of his three tournaments this season including a win at the CIMB. He also finished T11 at the RBC last year so he showed he could navigate his way around a tight, seaside course.  

Matt Kuchar | $10,800 – Kuchar’s worst finish here was in 2007 when he finished T25. He has three finishes in the 20s and a T7. This is his home course, so he’s a nice, safe play but he’s unlikely to give you extra value above his price.

Kevin Kisner | $10,400 – Kisner finished T4 last year after being T20 the year before at the RSM. He’s started well with three made cuts in three tournaments this season. His profile also works as he finished 34th in driving accuracy, 95th in GIR, 11th in P4:BB and 44th in SG:P.

Graeme McDowell | $10,200 – I was wrong about McDowell last week, but I didn’t know that he got a text from Greg Norman which changed his whole outlook. And I didn’t give him credit for his solid, if unspectacular work on the European Tour coming into last week. He’s only played here once in 2011 and missed the cut. But, this is the type of course that McDowell can scorch.

Bill Haas | $10,100 – Haas’ two ventures to RSM have been successful (second in 2010 and T22 last year). He hasn’t played in the new season and is likely the last (or one of the last) to do so. His profile from last year could work – 73rd in driving accuracy, 31st in GIR, 96th in P4:BB and 149th in SG:P –  though the putting is a concern.

Russell Henley | $10,000 – Henley profiles nicely as he finished last year 54th in driving accuracy, 69th in GIR, 40th in P4:BB and ninth in SG:P. He played his college golf at the University of Georgia so he’s familiar with the course and the surroundings. He’s had a spotty record at the TBC with two missed cuts in three starts, but does have a T6 in there to lean on.

Patrick Rodgers | $9,600 – There may not be a hotter golfer in this tournament than Rodgers. Rodgers makes his debut at the RSM this year. He has four straight top 20 finishes to open the new season including two top 10 finishes and no finish outside the top 20. He doesn’t profile particularly well (though he can score), but his form is hart to pass up especially down in salary a bit from the high end.

Patton Kizzire | $9,500 – The rookie stumbled last week to a T58 after putting up back to back top 5s in his first two tournaments as a rookie on the PGA Tour. He’s got a profile from the Web.com Tour that makes you drool, but I’m not sure I’m going to pay for him this week. He could be tiring a bit and this is a deeper field than we’ve seen all year.

Harris English | $9,200 – The profile doesn’t seem to work – tenth in SG:P, but 136th in driving accuracy, 70th in GIR, 116th in P4:BB. He missed the cut last week at the OHL and missed the cut here last year as well.

Charles Howell III | $9,100 – Charlie Three Sticks has made the cut in each of the last five years (though he was a disappointing T73 last year). He does have two top 10 finishes at the RSM and has had some success making cuts (six of ten) at the RBC. He’s in form coming in and should be a solid cash game option.

Kevin Chappell | $9,000 – Chappell finished last season at 65th in driving accuracy, 103rd in GIR, 27th in P4:BB and 61st in SG:P. He’s made three cuts in three trips to the RSM and was T8 last year so he’s another solid cash game option.

Spencer Levin | $8,900 – Levin’s best finish here in three trips was a T32 in 2011. He’s put a streak together of three straight top 25 finishes including a season’s best T10 at the OHL last week. It’s about current form over history in rostering Levin.

Brandt Snedeker | $8,800 – Snedeker is a superior putter finishing fifth in SG:P last year even though he struggled with injuries throughout the year. He started this year with a T17 at the Frys and then missed the cut at the Shriners. The time off should do him well as he makes his first appearance here since his debut in 2011 (T32).

Brendon de Jonge | $8,700 – Cash game alert! De Jonge is five for five in cuts made here and has two top five finishes and four top 20s in that run. He finished last season at 44th in driving accuracy, 62nd in GIR, 85th in P4:BB and 108th in SG:P.

Robert Streb | $8,700 – Streb won in his debut at the RSM last year. No big deal. Remember, Streb started his hot streak last year around this time. Currently, he’s not quite as hot having missed the cut at the Frys, T53 at the CIMB and T35 at the WGC-HSBC. He’s not accurate off the tee (123rd last year), but the rest of the profile works (23rd in GIR, 28th in P4:BB and 24th in SG:P)

Roberto Castro | $8,600 – Castro is 40th in driving accuracy, but there isn’t a lot else to recommend. He finished T27 in 2012, but was T69 last year. He has back to back top 25 finishes and has made all four cuts on the new year.

Jason Kokrak | $8,500 – Don’t look now, but Kokrak has reeled off back to back top 20 finishes. He’s got half a profile to work (67th in GIR, 69th in P4:BB) and finished T10 two years ago.

Chris Kirk | $8,500 – Kirk’s is a horse for this course. He won here two years ago and backed that up with a T4 last year. However, he’s struggled early in the new season (T81 and T76) and his profile doesn’t seem to work. Kirk’s history is tough to ignore even if his form and profile point us elsewhere.

Johnson Wagner | $8,400 – Wagner’s profile fits nicely – 86th in driving accuracy, 26th in GIR, 157th in P4:BB and 55th in SG:P. He has back to back top 15 finishes coming in including a T8 at the OHL last week. He’s never had a ton of success here in four trips with his best finish a T25 in 2010.

Peter Malnati | $8,300 – Malnati debuts here this week and didn’t fade after his win at the Sanderson backing that up with a T10 at the OHL. His success on the PGA Tour is built on putting as he’s second in SG:P in the 2016 season. I dig him again this week.

David Lingmerth | $8,200 – Lingmerth was T14 last year in his debut and finished last year 46th in driving accuracy, 130th in GIR, 71st in P4:BB and 97th in SG:P. I think I’d rather spend my money elsewhere so I’ll be a bit underweight on Lingmerth this week.

Brian Harman | $8,100 – This is Harman’s home course and it shows. He’s made the cut three times in his three trips and had a T10 two years ago. His profile fits relatively well – 55th in driving accuracy, 81st in GIR, 75th in P4:BB and 47th in SG:P. He’s got top 10 upside without the price to match.

Scott Brown | $8,000 – Brown disappointed here last year by missing the cut after coming in with a T20 and T4 in his first two starts at the RSM. He struggled a bit to open the new season, but cured all his ills last week with a T5. He’s had some success at the RBC (T5 two years ago) so he’s a sneaky option.

Chris Stroud | $7,900 – His history here is bad, his current form is OK (T10, T38 and missed cut in the first three events for him this year). I’d rather look elsewhere.  

Brice Garnett | $7,900 – Garnett has made the cut in his only two trips here with a top finish of T36. However, he seems to be playing out of his mind now with back to back top 10 finishes and back to back 100+ DK point outputs. He finished T11 last year in his debut at the RBC. He’s quite an intriguing play this week.

Michael Thompson | $7,900 – Had back to back top 10 finishes in 2011 and 2012. Came back last year with a T66. He’s made all four cuts this year with a best finish of T20 at the Sanderson Farms Championship. If you roster him this week, you’re banking on the old Thompson coming back and continuing his solid run of from.

Camilo Villegas | $7,800 – Villegas has made back to back cuts and is three for three in cuts made at the RSM, but hasn’t been in the top 25 since his work in 2012. He’s seven for 10 in cuts made the RBC with three top 10 finishes.

Brendon Todd | $7,800 – Great putter (seventh in SG:P), terrible current form (three straight missed cuts). Pass.

Boo Weekley | $7,700 – Weekley’s success at the RBC Heritage (nine for nine cuts made with three top 10s) makes you think he should also be good at the RSM (three of five cuts made, no finish better than T22).

Kevin Streelman | $7,700 – Streelman profiles nicely – 20th in driving accuracy, 25th in GIR – until you get to 91st in P4:BB and 146th in SG:P. He’s only played here once in 2011 and finished T6.

Jason Dufner | $7,600 – A good profile for the week (27th in driving accuracy, 24th in GIR, 40th in P4:BB, but 177th in SG:P. He debuts here this week, but is six for seven in cuts made at the RBC.  He’s made back to back cuts coming in to the RSM.

Fabian Gomez | $7,500 – Gomez was T8 last year at the RSM and has back to back top 20 finishes on Tour to start the new season. Hmmm……

Jim Herman | $7,500 – The slightly more expensive Hudson Swafford. Just seems to profile well every week. And it’s shown the last two weeks with back to back top 20 finishes. He’s missed two of three cuts at the RSM so he doesn’t have history on his side, but his current form should carry him this week.

Smylie Kaufman | $7,500 – Kaufman picked up his first Tour win at the Shriners in late October and has since finished T54 and T34. He’s an excellent putter and a fantastic scorer, but lacks accuracy off the tee. He could explode or implode this week. There isn’t an in between for him this week.

David Hearn | $7,400 – Hearn profiles quite nicely having finished last year 58th in driving accuracy, 47th in GIR, 20th in P4:BB and 27th in SG:P. He’s played here three times, made the cut three times and never finished better than T40. He’s made three of four cuts on the new year with two top 30 finishes.

Aaron Baddeley | $7,300 – This is a gut play based on Baddeley’s work with a new coach and his solid start to the year. He’s made three straight cuts to open the year including a T4 at the Sanderson Farms. Did you know that Baddeley finished last year at first in SG:P? Nope, neither did I. He’s made three of three cuts here, but never finished better than T40. He’s also done well at the RBC with nine of eleven cuts made and three top 10 finishes.

Brett Stegmaier | $7,300 – Stego has made four straight cuts to start of his PGA Tour season including a T2 at the Shriners. He’s accurate off the tee and can score a bit. His scrambling is what saves him generally and if he stays out of the water that can be useful.

Shawn Stefani | $7,000 – Stefani made his debut here and meandered to a T41. He’s started the new season with missed cut, T62, missed cut, T25. His profile is fine (88th in driving accuracy, 32nd in GIR, 29th in P4:BB, 88th in SG:P). He could see the top 20. He could be done by Friday afternoon.

Zac Blair | $7,000 – Blair is an excellent putter (11th in SG:P) and accurate driver (23rd in accuracy) so he should be able to perform well here. In his debut last year, he finished T32 and also finished T44 at the RBC last year.

Hudson Swafford | $6,900 – Swafford’s profile is very similar to Robert Streb’s, but he’s quite a bit cheaper. And while he didn’t win here last year, he did finish T12.

Mark Wilson | $6,600 – Wilson has two top 10 finishes (including last year) in his five trips to Sea Island. And he’s made six of eight cuts at the RBC with one top 10 finish. So, he seems to like the ocean view room. His profile is strikingly similarly to Brendon de Jonge (53rd in driving accuracy, 51st in GIR, 69th in P4:BB and 125th in SG:P). He’s not in the best form, but he’s done well on this (and similar courses).

Sean O’Hair | $6,600 – O’Hair has had some success here (three of four cuts made and three top 20 finishes). He also finished sixth at the Heritage last year. He’s got some things that work as well including a ninth place standing in P4:BB and 60th in P4:BB. His career has been all over the place, but he seems to be on an upswing in general. He’s a volatile option, but I like him in GPPs.

Tim Wilkinson | $6,600 – Wilkinson opened last year’s RSM with a 69. And then he got himself disqualified. He’s opened the year making both cuts. And his work at the RBC (four of four cuts made and a top 10) offers some hope as well.

Tim Clark | $6,400 – Clark played here two years ago and finished T2. He’s also made 10 of 11 cuts at the RBC. He’s got a relatively high upside down here in the dregs.

Davis Love III | $6,100 – The tournament host (along with Zach Johnson) has made the cut in three of five trips here with one top 10 finish. He was T41 last year, but he wasn’t completely healthy for most of the year. He finished T73 in his only start this season, but recall he won at the Wyndham on a par 70 course just three month ago.

Tommy Gainey | $5,700 – Gainey won here in 2012. He’s missed the cut in two of his other trips and finished T32 last year. This sums up Gainey’s work here.

Dru Love IV | $5,400 – Davis Love III’s kid gets a sponsor’s exemption. He’s surely played here a few times in his life. Certainly worth a shot in a stars and scrubs lineup though he’s probably going to struggle to make the cut.

DraftKings Scoring

Roster size: 6 Golfers

POINT SCORING

Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:

  • Per Hole Scoring
    • Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
    • Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
    • Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
    • Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
    • Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
    • Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
    • Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
  • Tournament Finish Scoring
    • 1st: 30 PTs
    • 2nd: 20 PTs
    • 3rd: 18 PTs
    • 4th: 16 PTs
    • 5th: 14 PTs
    • 6th: 12 PTs
    • 7th: 10 PTs
    • 8th: 9 PTs
    • 9th: 8 PTs
    • 10th: 7 PTs
    • 11th–15th: 6 PTs
    • 16th–20th: 5 PTs
    • 21st–25th: 4 PTs
    • 26th–30th: 3 PTs
    • 31st–40th: 2 PTs
    • 41st-50th: 1 PTs
  • Streaks and Bonuses
    • Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
    • Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
    • All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
    • Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs

Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.

Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.

Full rules are located here for DraftKings Daily Fantasy golf.

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