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Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: August 16, 2015

Sunday is such a bittersweet day. We have a full slate of baseball, but we have to dread going to work tomorrow. I guess that means we’ll have to make the best of what we have today! Be sure to sign up at DraftKings here!

Below I’ve included a look at the pitching options, as well as the best teams to stack from and a set of individual player rankings.

Forecast

There appear to be some pop up thunderstorm chances in Colorado and Minnesota. Please monitor these storms prior to setting all of your lineups.

Pitching Perspective

The Dark Knight will try to make it a “dark day,” for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Matt Harvey hasn’t quite lived up to the hype that we expected since his return from Tommy John Surgery, but he’s been good enough to warrant his selection today. He’s striking out over eight hitters per inning, and getting a solid amount of ground balls to go along. He’ll get the advantage of pitching at home in a pitcher’s park looking to salvage at least one win in the series with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite their great record, the Pirates are really a middle of the pack offense (15th in wOBA, 10th in wRC) and shouldn’t be a worry for you against Harvey.

Believe it or not though, Harvey isn’t the top option today. Despite their current winning streak and offensive performance, I don’t see the Cubbies doing too much against Chris Sale today. Sale has been his dominant self this season, striking out 11.5 hitters per nine innings while lowering his walk rate and posting a 2.67 xFIP. The Cubs are comfortably atop the leaderboard in terms of strikeout percentage as an offense, and with the importance of strikeouts on DraftKings, Sale should be your top option. I’m hoping though, for a 1-0 Cubs win.

Sale and Harvey are really expensive, so you most likely won’t be able to fit both of them. To save some salary, look to use Carlos Martinez against the hapless Miami Marlins. The Marlins offense is pitiful without Christian Yelich or Giancarlo Stanton and Martinez has been fantastic this season. He’s striking out plenty of hitters and getting a lot of ground balls and has a really serviceable salary in order to gain exposure to great offenses today. The Marlins are in the bottom five in the league as an offense in terms of wOBA and wRC+: feel comfortable using Martinez.

What happened to the Washington Nationals man? The Nats, even with a “healthier” lineup have not been very good down the stretch, and I don’t expect them to put it together against Madison Bumgarner today. The Nats will be experiencing a sizable negative park shift and that won’t help them against Bumgarner. Mad Bum hasn’t quite been the guy we saw in the playoffs last season, but the 9.33 K/9 and a 3.03 xFIP speaks to the quality work that he’s done. He’s the second most expensive pitcher of the day, and therefore, I’m reserving him for tournaments.

Last but not least, Zack Grienke, the most expensive pitcher of the day has a matchup with the Cincinnati Reds. Grienke has been fantastic this season, and is probably a frontrunner for the N.L. Cy Young Award. The Reds will be facing a large negative park shift and will be forced to deal with Grienke’s eight strikeouts per nine innings as well as his minimal walk rate. Grienke isn’t giving up free passes, or home runs, making him a great option today. Unfortunately, because his salary is so high, and with the bevy of other options, he’s a tournament play for me today.

Stack Options

1. Coors Field – This game in Denver is one of the only games with some small possible weather concerns, but it should be the most heavily targeted game for offensive players today. Ian Kennedy and Chris Rusin both play into the strengths of the opposing lineups, and both are in trouble today. Kennedy is an extreme flyball pitcher, which bodes well for the Rockies hitters, while Rusin is a ground ball guy, his overall skill set isn’t great enough to combat the powerful right-handers the Padres will roll out. This one should be fun.

2. 2-Way Tie – Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros : Each one of these three teams has something going for them, and a powerful offense to go along with it. The Blue Jays will be facing super prospect Luis Severino, but will be doing so at home at the Rogers Centre with an implied runs total of around 4.9 runs. The Astros will get to face left-hander Matt Boyd at home, and will take the power and speed combination to the max. They will probably be an underowned stack on a day with a game at Coors Field, but they are one of my favorite contrarian stacks.

3. Baltimore Orioles : I love the Orioles offense for tournament stacks. Much like the Minnesota Twins, they for some reason never get enough love, but have a really nice offensive power house, and especially when they play at home. They’ll be at Camden Yards today and facing right-hander Kendall Gravemen. Graveman doesn’t strike anyone out and issues about three free passes per nine innings. Contact plus free baserunners is a great combination for potential stacks.

Player Rankings

Catcher 

1. Derek Norris -$4,200 – San Diego Padres

2. Jonathan Lucroy -$3,200 – Milwaukee Brewers

3. Yan Gomes -$3,600 – Cleveland Indians

First Basemen

1. Ben Paulsen -$3,200 – Colorado Rockies

2. Evan Gattis -$3,600 – Houston Astros

3. Chris Davis -$4,900  – Baltimore Orioles

Second Basemen

1. Jedd Gyorko -$3,500 – San Diego Padres

2. Jose Altuve -$4,500 – Houston Astros

3. Scooter Gennet -$2,800 – Milwaukee Brewers

Third Basemen

1. Nolan Arenado -$5,200 – Colorado Rockies

2. Josh Donaldson -$5,100 – Toronto Blue Jays

3. Manny Machado -$4,500 – Baltimore Orioles

Shortstop

1. Carlos Correa -$5,200 – Houston Astros

2. Troy Tulowitzki -$4,100 – Toronto Blue Jays

3. Jhonny Peralta -$3,800 – St. Louis Cardinals

Outfield

1. Matt Kemp -$5,000 – San Diego Padres

2. Justin Upton -$5,500 – San Diego Padres

3. Carlos Gonzalez -$5,100 – Colorado Rockies

4. Charlie Blackmon -$4,700 – Colorado Rockies

Starting Pitchers

1. Carlos Martinez -$9,100 – St. Louis Cardinals

2. Chris Sale -$11,600 – Chicago White Sox

3. Matt Harvey -$11,300 – New York Mets

4. Zack Grienke -$12,400 – Los Angeles Dodgers

5. Madison Bumgarner -$11,900 – San Francisco Giants

 

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