Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Thursday’s 11-game evening slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, rankings of the top plays at each position and some sample lineups for you to consider.

Pitching Perspective

Let’s start with the Tampa Bay at Houston game where Chris Archer ($12,400) will square off against Collin McHugh ($8,700). Archer is the top projected starter of the day according to my model, and McHugh has the third best projection. Archer certainly isn’t a value at his price tag, but the options are fairly thin on this less-than-full slate, so Archer is probably worth paying up for. With the Astros still owning the second highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, he obviously has big upside.

As for McHugh, he’s a bit under-priced according to my model, and he also has a good matchup. The Rays have the fourth highest strikeout rate against right-handers and also have the fifth worst wRC+ against righties. Both bullpens were taxed last night in a long extra inning game, so the starters will likely be given the chance to go deep into the game even if they have hiccups along the way.

The second highest projected pitcher of the day is Max Scherzer, and he’s as cheap as he’s ever going to be at $11,400. But there’s obviously a reason for that as he’s pitching in Colorado. He also has an ERA of 6.00 over his last five starts, which is contributing to his depressed price. But he has a 2.82 xFIP over those five starts as his excellent strikeout and walk skills have remained intact. He has been bitten by a 30.8 percent HR/FB rate in that time frame, which isn’t exactly comforting given where he’s pitching today. But with Archer likely to be very highly owned and Scherzer having the talent to overcome any matchup or ball park on a given day, he makes for a solid tournament play.

If you’re looking for bargain pitchers, I’d consider Mike Foltynewicz ($4,500) and John Lamb ($5,500). Folty is a pretty terrifying option pitching in Wrigley with his 46.2 percent career fly ball rate, but the matchup undoubtedly presents some upside. The Cubs strikeout more than any other team against right-handed pitching, and Folty is at least an average strikeout pitcher. At such a low price tag, even a short-ish outing with a decent strikeout total will be worth the price. But the downside is significant.

As for Lamb, he looked decent in his first start against the Dodgers in his first two times through the Dodgers order. But he was chased in the fifth inning facing the order for a third time. In 20 starts at Triple-A this year his ERA was 2.67, and he posted above average strikeout rates. Walks were a bit of an issue, but they weren’t completely out of control. He only has a slightly above average matchup against the D’Backs, and this game is in Cincinnati, so you’re not banking on the variables here. You’d be banking on Lamb being an average starter who is not yet being recognized as one by the pricing model.

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Stack Options

Who does Vegas like? According to implied run totals, Washington, Boston, Detroit, Colorado, Chicago (Cubs), New York (Yankees) and Baltimore are all worth a look today. Of those seven teams, my model doesn’t agree on Colorado and New York with just one hitter from each of those teams ranking in the top 50 of my hitter projections today. So we’re down to five. Let’s continue the process of elimination.

I prefer to stack teams facing pitchers that allow hitters to elevate at a high rate, so the high ground ball rates of Martin Perez and Yohan Flande scare me a bit as they are facing Detroit and Washington, respectively. Despite having the highest implied run total of the day, I have little problem fading the Nats. Bryce Harper will cost $6,500 and is without the platoon advantage. And the others you’re fading are guys like Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman, none of whom have provided much fantasy value this season.

My model really likes the Tigers with six of their hitters ranked in the top 50 today. But Martin Perez is rocking a 58 percent ground ball rate against right-handed hitters this season, and all Tigers I’d want to roster will be hitting from the right side. Eerez is also allowing a hard hit rate of just 19.3 percent against right-handed hitters. It’s admittedly a fairly small sample size, but he has pitched much better than his 5.29 ERA indicates. If this game was in Texas I’d give Tigers a longer look, but I’m resigned to fading them tonight.

That leaves us with Boston, Chicago and Baltimore. Baltimore and Chicago each only have four hitters in my top 50, but Boston has six, so that’s probably my favorite stack candidate of the day. The Red Sox will be facing Danny Duffy who has the lowest ground ball rate against right-handed hitters of any pitcher going today, and he’s also allowing a hard hit rate of 32.6 percent to right-handed hitters. With this game being in Boston and not Kansas City, Boston right-handers have the variables all working in their favor. And they’re all very reasonably priced. Hanley Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Rusney Castillo are excellent options today. If you want to go Sox-heavy, Pablo Sandoval and Ryan Hanigan/Blake Swihart can be added to the stack.

Between Chicago and Baltimore, I’d lean more toward the Cubbies. They’ll be facing Mike Foltynewicz who has the lowest ground ball rate against left-handers of any starter going today. And at 24 percent, his ground ball rate is much lower than Duffy’s is against right-handers. Anthony Rizzo is a great play today, Kyle Schwarber is as well if you can afford an expensive catcher, and Chris Coghlan is a really nice value. Kris Bryant, Miguel Montero and Dexter Fowler can be used with them to go with a Cubs-heavy stack.

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Kyle Schwarber – $4,900 – Chicago Cubs
2. Ryan Hanigan – $2,800 – Boston Red Sox
3. Miguel Montero – $3,200 – Chicago Cubs

First Base

1. Anthony Rizzo – $5,100 – Chicago Cubs
2. Chris Davis – $5,600 – Baltimore Orioles
3. Victor Martinez – $3,500 – Detroit Tigers

Second Base

1. Chris Coghlan – $3,400 – Chicago Cubs
2. Ian Kinsler – $4,400 – Detroit Tigers
3. Jason Kipnis – $4,700 – Cleveland Indians

Third Base

1. Lonnie Chisenhall – $3,100 – Cleveland Indians
2. Miguel Cabrera – $5,300 – Detroit Tigers
3. Pedro Alvarez – $3,600 – Pittsburgh Pirates

Shortstop

1. Xander Bogaerts – $4,200 – Boston Red Sox
2. Hanley Ramirez – $3,900 – Boston Red Sox
3. Eduardo Escobar – $2,700 – Minnesota Twins

Outfield

1. J.D. Martinez – $4,700 – Detroit Tigers
2. Mookie Betts – $4,600 – Boston Red Sox
3. Rusney Castillo – $3,500 – Boston Red Sox
4. Gerardo Parra – $4,500 – Baltimore Orioles
5. Jayson Werth – $3,700 – Washington Nationals
6. Rajai Davis – $3,300 – Detroit Tigers

Starting Pitcher

1. Collin McHugh – $8,700 – Houston Astros
2. Chris Archer – $12,400 – Tampa Bay Rays
3. Max Scherzer – $11,400 – Washington Nationals
4. Jose Quintana – $8,500 – Chicago White Sox
5. John Lamb – $5,500 – Cincinnati Reds
6. Mike Foltynewicz – $4,500 – Atlanta Braves

Sample Lineups

Every day I play DFS, I take the projections you see above and run them through Fantasycruncher.com, a lineup optimization tool. Basically, it just tells me what the maximum number of projected points is that I can get into a lineup under the cap. Below is the optimal lineup it spit out for tonight using my projections.

The optimization tool actually had a lineup with Foltynewicz in it as the true optimized lineup, but I simply can’t stomach him. Once I removed him from the player pool, the optimizer paired McHugh with Quintana almost exclusively. I thought it would go with McHugh/Archer at that point and skimp on hitters, but that wasn’t the case. I didn’t discuss Quintana above, but he is a steady option. His ERA and SIERA are virtually identical in the mid-threes, and he does not beat himself with walks. He’s also getting a positive park shift on the road tonight.

Alright, let’s see what a McHugh/Archer lineup looks like.

I’m surprised, but I actually think I like the Quintana lineup more. You’ll have to get away from Cubs a bit to roster Archer. Let’s finish up with Chicago stack example.