Front Office

Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: May 2, 2015

Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation for the today’s early and late slates as well as the best teams from which to pick hitters. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and we have rankings of the top plays at each position.

Pitching Perspective

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, how many runs per game his opponent is projected to score and the average fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game. The columns labeled ‘z’ will tell you far above or below average the pitcher’s salary or projection is. There is also a column labeled value that is the difference between the pitcher’s projection z-score and salary z-score. The higher the number the better.

We don’t get a lot of premier pitching options today, but there are enough to get by. In the early slate, look towards Jake Arrieta ($9,100) to anchor your lineups. The model projects Arrieta as a slight negative value, but it doesn’t take into account just how atrocious the Brewers lineup is. Arrieta should have no problem steamrolling through an awful lineup with his 8.44 K/9 and 53.4% GB%.

The other option in the early slate is Indians’ right-hander Corey Kluber ($9,400). Kluber is slightly more pricey than Arrieta, but is just as solid of an option. He’ll be facing a tough Blue Jays lineup, but they’re typically all right-handed. Kluber dominated right-handed pitching last season, only yielding a .246 wOBA. He has elite upside and strikeout potential and is a solid option for both cash games and GPPs.

Cole Hamels ($10,000) is also throwing in the early slate and is facing a streaky Miami Marlins offense. The Marlins feature some potent right-handed bats, moving Hamels value down. The model reflects the slight negative value that Hamels possesses. I move him into the preferred GPP slot.

In the evening, the options are a tad bit riskier. Chris Archer ($8,600) is becoming an elite starter right before our eyes. Archer has a great K/9 (10.90) and a dazzling 2.43 FIP. He gets to face the Baltimore Orioles team that has moved away from Camden Yards despite being the home team still. I like Archer in both cash games and GPP.

David Price ($10,200) is an option tonight, but the model sees him as a huge negative value. The problem with using Price is the Royals offense. The offense doesn’t possess a whole lot of pop, and Price will be taking away the platoon advantage from some of the best Royals hitters, but they don’t strike out much. Because he is one of the only good options in the night slate, he becomes a cash game and GPP flier.

Colin McHugh ($7,900) has been fantastic since he made some systematic changes last season and he’s priced well below that of the top tier. I think this makes him a solid second starting pitching option.

If you want to take a flier in GPPs, Gio Gonzalez ($9,000) has great strikeout upside and will be pitching in a spacious park.

DK Banner 728x90

Stack Options

Our projections for the hitters of both slates can be found here.

There are a couple different stack options in both the early and the late slate today. If you’re playing the early slate, look to the game in Fenway Park. The game is currently carrying a total of 9.5 and features two less than average pitchers in Wade Miley and Nathan Eovaldi. The model loves David Ortiz ($4,600) and I second that. He’s elite against right-handed pitchers and should have no problem with Eovaldi today. Right-handed Yankees hitters will also be a great value today against Miley. Look for Alex Rodriguez ($4,000) to try and surpass Willie Mays today and Chris Young ($3,800) should get a start.

Away from Fenway, the Twins and White Sox might take part in a slugfest. The total is currently at 9 thanks to the mediocre pitchers on the mound. John Danks and Ricky Nolasco should give plenty of hitters a chance at reaching value. The top of the White Sox order is really intriguing. Adam Eaton ($4,000), Melky Cabrera ($4,500), Jose Abreu($5,300) and Adam Laroche ($4,400) is a great stack for both cash games and GPPs. The Twins have less viable hitters, but I like Brian Dozier ($4,600) and Trevor Plouffe ($4,000).

The evening features a pair of decent games for hitters. The game in Texas should provide some value for Oakland left-handed bats, and Rangers right-handers. I don’t like Sam Fuld’s skill set ($3,900) but there is some value in his price at the top of the Oakland lineup. Stephen Vogt ($3,900) is the same price though and is a much better hitter and a solid cash game option. Ike Davis is a criminal ($2,800) value, but he was pinch hit for early in the game last night when a lefty made his way out of the pen; this is something to keep an eye on. The Rangers don’t have many good right-handed bats, but Adrian Beltre ($4,500) is one. Kyle Blanks ($3,600) hit a monster homerun last night and should be in there again today and also provides some solid value.

Another game that I’m particularly targeting for cash game stacks is the game in Los Angeles. Scott Baker and Jeremy Hellickson aren’t great pitchers and there are a ton of great left-handed options for both teams. The Dodgers will load their lineup with lefties and start at the top with Joc Pederson ($4,100). Pederson has had high ownership levels in his time in the leadoff spot, and I expect that trend to continue tonight at his price point. Adrian Gonzalez ($4,500) is a great first base option and Jimmy Rollins ($3,600) will be great shortstop value at a really shallow position. For the Diamondbacks, Paul Goldschmidt ($5,400) is always in play, but Ender Inciarte ($3,400) and David Peralta ($4,100) are the guys I’ll be targeting as great values.

The last game I’d go really heavy on is the one in Atlanta. Jason Marquis and Eric Stults will be tossing the ball to the hitters and the hitters will be glad about that. Freddie Freeman ($4,200) is an awesome cash game play and our model loves him today. There are other great value left-handers in the Braves lineup, but I’d look particularly to AJ Pierzynski ($3,400) to fill up a shallow catcher position.

The Reds have some decent right-handed bats, but I’d center my roster creation around Todd Frazier ($5,000) if you’re stacking against Stults. Stults yields a lot of contact and is a flyball pitchers, which benefits right-handed Reds bats. Joey Votto ($4,600) won’t have the platoon advantage, but I wouldn’t worry about his time with Stults. He should carry a lower than normal ownership percentage, making him a pretty interesting GPP play.

Player Rankings

Catcher

  1. Buster Posey – $4,100 – San Francisco Giants (early)
  2. AJ Pierzynski -$3,400- Atlanta Braves
  3. Stephen Vogt -$3,900 – Oakland Athletics

First Basemen

  1. David Ortiz – $4,600 – Boston Red Sox (early)
  2. Freddie Freeman -$4,200 – Atlanta Braves
  3. Jose Abreua -$5,300 – Chicago White Sox (early)
  4. Adrian Gonzalez – $4,500 – Los Angeles Dodgers

Second Basemen

  1. Brian Dozier -$4,600 – Minnesota Twins (early)
  2. Jason Kipnis -$4,400 – Cleveland Indians (early)
  3. Robinson Cano – $4,500 – Seattle Mariners

Shorstops

  1. Troy Tulowitzki – $5,000 – Colorado Rockies
  2. Jimmy Rollins -$3,600 – Los Angeles Dodgers
  3. Hanley Ramirez – $5,200 – Boston Red Sox (early)
  4. Starlin Castro – $3,800 – Chicago Cubs (early)

Third Basemen

  1. Adrian Beltre -$4,500 – Texas Rangers
  2. Pablo Sandoval- $4,200 – Boston Red Sox (early)
  3. Alex Rodriguez – $4,000 – New York Yankees (early)
  4. Miguel Cabrera – $5,500 – Detroit Tigers (also 1B eligible)

Outfield

  1. Jacoby Ellsbury – $5,100 – New York Yankees (early)
  2. Joc Pederson -$4,100 – Los Angeles Dodgers
  3. Giancarlo Stanton – $4,900 – Miami Marlins
  4. Ender Inciarte – $3,400 – Arizona Diamondbacks
  5. David Peralta -$4,100 – Arizona Diamondbacks

Starting Pitchers

  1. Jake Arrieta – $9,100 – Chicago Cubs (early)
  2. Corey Kluber -$9,400 – Cleveland Indians (early)
  3. Chris Archer – $8,600 – Tampa Bay Rays
  4. David Price -$10,200 –Detroit Tigers
  5. Cole Hamels -$10,000 – Philadelphia Phillies (early)
  6. Colin McHugh -$7,700 –Houston Astros
  7. Francisco Liriano -$9,000 – Pittsburgh Pirates (early)
Previous post

Fantasy Baseball Final: May 1, 2015

Next post

Fantasy Baseball Final: May 2nd, 2015