Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: October 1, 2015
Welcome back to The Fix! We’re winding down the MLB DFS season here on DraftKings, but lets finish strong. We’re going to unpack the 7-game evening slate here, so let’s get started. A short slate equals a short write up, but I hope it helps. If you’re on Twitter, you can find me @RyNoonan.
It’s difficult to nail down weather hours and hours before first pitch. Given how often forecasts change between the time this post is written late the night before and when games actually start, make sure to follow @KevinRothWx for updates.
We’re going to work backwards a bit here because we have to talk about Rich Hill ($4,300). I have no idea why he’s still near minimum salary after three shockingly-good starts. Perhaps that’s the answer; his performance has been shocking. He’s averaging 36.8 DraftKings points per outing, with a K/9 of nearly 12. Even in a difficult matchup against the Yankees, you have to love him for $4,300.
Our top dog tonight is Jose Fernandez ($11,200) on the road in Tampa Bay. Rostering one of the game’s best pitchers against one of the league’s worst offenses versus right-handed pitching is an easy play, but not when that pitcher isn’t allowed to work past 6-7 innings or 100 pitches. The Marlins are being extra cautious with Jose Fernandez. I don’t have to go on and on about how he’s a great play against the Rays, but he’ll be hard press to reach 25-30 DraftKings points if he can’t work deep in to the game.
The other expensive option tonight is Stephen Strasburg ($11,000) who’s been on a tear of late. He’s strung together four straight 30+ point performances and has another plus matchup tonight against a Braves club that’s been playing out the string for well over a month. If you’re paying up in cash games, start with Strasburg.
The last real viable option tonight is Patrick Corbin ($7,500). The left-handed Corbin is facing the league’s worst team against left-handed pitching, and his price is suppressed after a rough start last time out against the Dodgers. After costing more than $9,000 over the past few weeks, getting him for $7,500 is quite the coup.
According to Vegas, our best bets today are the Rangers (4.8 implied-runs), Diamondbacks (4.6), and Red Sox (4.3)
A 7-game slate obviously limits are options, and we have no teams with an implied-run total north of five tonight.
The Rangers face fly-ball-heavy Andrew Heaney tonight in Arlington. The Rangers have a solid .320 wOBA over their past 30 days and the park plays favorably for them as well. Heaney doesn’t miss many bats so it mitigates the Rangers swing-and-miss issues against left-handed pitching.
The Diamondbacks are at home against David Hale, who’s failed to score more than 10 DraftKings points in eight of his last 10 outings. Arizona is a very favorable hitters park, and should have problems running Hale out of this one quickly.
Finally we have the Red Sox, who face off against C.C. Sabathia in the Bronx. Sabathia’s handedness splits are worth exploiting here, as his .370 wOBA against right-handed bats has been a consistent problem all season long. He’s handled lefties well (.229 wOBA) so I wouldn’t advise a full-blown stack here.
1. Albert Pujols – Anaheim Angels $4,200
2. Jose Abreu -Chicago White Sox $4,800
3. Kendrys Morales -Kansas City Royals $4,600
1. Dustin Pedroia – Boston Red Sox $4,200
2. Ben Zobrist – Kansas City Royals $4,100
3. Jason Kipnis – Cleveland Indians $4,700
1. Nolan Arenado – Colorado Rockies $5,100
2. Adrian Beltre – Texas Rangers $4,500
3. Miguel Sano – Minnesota Twins $4,500
1. Xander Bogaerts – Boston Red Sox $4,100
2. Francisco Lindor – Cleveland Indians $4,700
3. Alcides Escobar – Kansas City Royals $3,500
1. Mookie Betts – Boston Red Sox $4,800
2. Bryce Harper – Washington Nationals $5,700
3. Lorenzo Cain – Kansas City Royals $4,900
4. David Peralta – Arizona Diamondbacks $3,700
5. Mike Trout – Anaheim Angels $5,000
1. Rich Hill – Boston Red Sox $4,300
2. Stephen Strasburg – Washington Nationals $11,000
3. Patrick Corbin – Arizona Diamondbacks $7,500
4. Jose Fernandez – Miami Marlins $12,700