Projections for the 2014 season are already out from steamerprojections.com. After the 2012 season, Razzball did a study on the most accurate projection systems, and Steamer seemed to be one of the better systems at projecting both hitting and pitching. So I wanted to find a way to turn the Steamer projections into one fantasy value number, something similar to ESPN’s player rater. Thankfully, Zach Sanders came up with a system back in 2011 to do exactly that. If you’d like to read about the methodology, you can do so here, here, here and here. And if you’d like to see how Steamer projects hitters and starters to finish the year in terms of fantasy production, check out this Google Doc.

In the coming weeks I’m going to go position-by-position and compare the Steamer fantasy values to current ADP. The only ADP I can find right now is this NFBC ADP fron NESN. I previously looked at catchers, and today I’ll look at first basemen.

Underdrafted

Albert Pujols / Steamer Projection: #3 1B / ADP: #7 1B

There were a lot of reasons that Pujols returned little to no fantasy value last year, but the main reason was that he only played in 99 games. Had he gotten to 150 games, he was on pace for roughly 25 homers, 75 runs, and 96 RBI to go along with his .258 average. Those numbers aren’t pretty, but they look about like what Brandon Moss did last year, which would have been worth about $8. He obviously won’t be the third or even seventh best first baseman even he hits those pro-rated stats this year, but the projections and drafters think he has a chance to bounce back.

If Pujols is going to bounce back, it’s not going to be to any level of performance prior to 2012. He’s basically been in decline since 2009, but his decline sort of leveled off last year. After being in a free fall for four seasons, several of his peripheral stats didn’t decline further last year. His walk rate bounced back, his average batted ball distance on fly balls and home runs bounced back, he hit his highest percentage of line drives since 2008, and his swing rate leveled off. The decline could certainly resume next year, but we may have entered the plateau phase of Pujols’ career.

Steamer certainly thinks we have as the system basically projects him to recreate his 2012 roto production in the upcoming season. I’m with Steamer in that I believe Pujols can recreate 2012, but I don’t think that makes him the third most valuable first baseman. He was only the sixth most valuable 1B in 2012, and his projected line would only have made him the fifth most valuable first baseman last year. I personally have ranked sixth at the position. So I’m more with the drafters than with Steamer on this one.

Anthony Rizzo / Steamer Projection: #6 1B / ADP: #13 ADP

I was very high on Rizzo last season, but his line drive rate and average batted ball distance didn’t match what he did in half a season in 2012, so he did not meet my optimistic projection for him. But Steamer is not deterred and projects Rizzo for a line next year that looks a lot like my projection for him last year.

I’m not exactly sure why Steamer is so positive on Rizzo. His wOBA basically declined in each month of the season, and his peripherals were worse during the second half. I know the system accounts for minor league performance, so that has to be driving the projection that says he’ll be the sixth best first baseman.

But I’m not with Steamer on this one because for Rizzo to come anywhere close to that projection, he’s going to have to be significantly better against left-handed pitching than he has been in his first 1200 PA. He has just a 67 wRC+ against LHP which means he’s 33% worse than league average against lefties. He could certainly improve against them given that he’s still only 24 years old, but he’s going to have to improve drastically against them to be as valuable as Steamer projects. I’ll buy some improvement and a little bit of positive regression in his line drive rate and batted ball distance, but only to the point where he’s a borderline top ten first baseman. He’s 10th in my initial 1B ranks.

Overdrafted

Joey Votto / Steamer Projection: #9 1B / ADP: #3 1B

I wrote about this before last season, but Votto is too good of a hitter to maximize his fantasy potential. His plate discipline is beyond elite, and it really depresses his roto production. He simply doesn’t take the bat off his shoulder enough to produce the numbers we need to justify taking him as a top five first baseman. Here’s a chart to show you how patient he has become. Keep in mind that 2010 was his peak for fantasy value.

Votto only got 475 PA in 2012 because of his inury, but if you project his numbers from that season out to his usual 700+ PA, he has averaged roughly 25 home runs and 85 RBI in the last three seasons. That seems like his upside in those two categories. Steamer’s 23/80 seems more reasonable and lines up well with his 24/73 from last year. He’ll still score a lot of runs since he walks so much and hit for good average. What he did last year is almost exactly what I’d project for him this year. And he was only the seventh most valuable first baseman last year. I think that’s where he finishes again, so I lean more towards Steamer than the drafters here.

I realize now that earlier I said I’d have Pujols at six at 1B and I just said I’d have Votto at seven. There’s no way I’d draft Pujols over Votto just because Votto is obviously much safer. So I’ll switch those two in my rankings. But I legitimately think Pujols has a little more upside this year.

Mark Trumbo / Steamer Projection: #18 1B / ADP: #10 1B

Compare the following stat lines from last season:

The thing I’m obviously leaving off is the 38 point advantage in batting average that E5 had, but those numbers aren’t too different. And Trumbo’s BABIP was a tad low last year. If it regresses to his career average, he should be able to get his average up around .250. And Trumbo is moving to a new home park that was the most favorable park to right-handed home run hitters last season and 11% more favorable than his previous home ball park.

The main reason that the Steamer projection is so low is that it only projects Trumbo for 560 PA, presumably because he had fewer than 600 PA in 2011 and 2012. But he’s going to be an everyday player this year, especially now that he can occasionally DH on his off days.

Trumbo was the 12th most valuable first baseman last year. I expect the power numbers to hold steady at worst and his average to rebound a bit, so I expect him to be a little more valuable this year. I’m with the drafters on this one. I actually like him slightly better than the drafters and have him ninth in my 1B rankings, just ahead of Rizzo.