Here’s part two of our end of season fantasy basketball recap, including the players to avoid and who to target early.

This piece was a joint effort by Zack and myself, so set aside some time and have a read!

Five Players to watch in 2014-2015

Zack

Taj Gibson – A 6th man of the year candidate who could move into the starting five if the Bulls do as they should and amnesty Carlos Boozer this off-season. In nine starts this season Taj posted 19.3ppg – 9.8rpg – 2.8apg – 1.8bpg. The Bulls even tend to go with Taj for his defense over Boozer late in games as is, so bringing back Boozer and his high salary seems totally senseless, #FreeTaj.

Jonas Valanciunas – Love this guy and his end of the season and playoff showings may make his ADP too high to be a value pick but he’s the real deal. JV will very soon be regarded among the upper tier of centers with his solid post moves, great rebounding and good (and improving) shot-blocking ability. Also, he’s good from the field and shoots over 75% from the charity stripe. Oh, and did I mention he’s only 21 (turns 22 in May) years old? Absolute beast in the making.

Jimmy Butler – The Butler is serving up a lot of future potential for the Bulls much like Taj. Butler didn’t take off quite as expected when Rose went out but he showed flashes of what he can develop into. His hustle on both ends is something Tom Thibodeau loves, and his currently inconsistent jumper is very likely to improve with another off-season of focus on it. His ADP shouldn’t rise to anything crazy so he should still be a great value pick with nice upside with his ability to score, hit threes and load up on the steals. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see him post a 15pt – 4reb – 4asst season with around 1.5 steals and 1.5 treys next season.

Nerlens Noel – This is going to be a popular pick on lists like this headed into next season but he has to be mentioned here. If the 76ers can make a guy like Henry Sims be fantasy relevant, a guy like Noel has to be on everyone’s radars. He’s coming off a major knee surgery but he’s had a long time to get that right and he’s also very raw on the offensive end. Also, with any youngster who is a shot blocker, you have to worry about foul trouble until they adjust to the plentiful pump fakes they’ll be getting from NBA vets. I’d like to believe Noel could deliver a 10pt – 8reb – 2blk first season with upside for more. As is the case with so many of these types, Noel shot just over 52% from the foul line in college so beware of that.

Alec Burks – This is a guy I liked especially in deeper leagues this season because of his ability to score the basketball and get to the free-throw line. Tyrone Corbin held him back by making his playing time inconsistent while giving guys with zero upside like Richard Jefferson way too many minutes. I don’t understand coaches on obvious rebuilding teams who play old vets who aren’t a part of the long-term plans over the players of the team’s future. With Corbin now out of the picture, Burks should be set free to really hit his potential. If the Jazz decide not to re-sign Gordon Hayward and/or if Burks can improve his three point shot, he could be in for a really big breakout season.

Sam

Jared Sullinger – I really like Sully’s chances in that young Boston Celtics team. The fact Rajon Rondo can’t shoot – or won’t shoot might be a better way to put it – means he’s going to be spoon fed open shots. His improvement from the outside as well as conditioning improvements led to him eclipsing his rookie stats across the board, but this might just be the beginning. Sullinger’s in a prime position to snag the starting PF spot, as he’s the only real banger who can both rebound and score. Pencil him in for 14-16 points, 8-10 rebounds and a handy amount of threes for a player eligible at PF/C – that’s if he’s starting of course. Troy Murphy and Mehmet Okur were very comparable players in terms of essentially ‘athletically lacking’ stretch fours who could also rebound, but Sully is already far ahead of their development at the same age.

Giannis Antetokounmpo – You don’t need to spell his name to draft Alphabet. The dude has length up the wazoo and his versatility and ability to play multiple positions will surely translate to significant fantasy gains next season. Below is a comparison between six players (including Antetokounmpo) who all came into the league young, long, athletically gifted and without a defined position. Three were/are All Stars. The other two were/are on the cusp of the ‘not quite All Stars’ at more than one point in their career. Check at the bottom of the article for the answers – but Giannis is Player 1. I’m pencilling him in for 29-32 minutes a night, along with 12-14 points, 6-7 rebounds, 2-3 assists, 1.0 steal, 1.2 blocks, 1.2 threes per game and shooting splits of 45/75 – not elite numbers by any means, but potentially top 60 production. The starting SF spot on Milwaukee should belong to Giannis for the next 10 seasons.

Timofey Mozgov – Mozgov may have leapfrogged JaVale McGee’s tissue paper-strong ‘grip’ on the Nuggets’ starting C spot going into next season, on the back of some eye popping stats (29 rebounds at Golden State whaaaaat?) down the stretch. Everyone knew his name but he’d never delivered consistent production; he was the relative unknown Russian hope brought over by the Knicks in the hope he would hold down their C spot – which he didn’t. He was shipped off the Denver in the Melo deal and became the guy getting owned in seemingly every Blake Griffin dunk mix, but through perseverance and necessity, Moz started delivering the fantasy goods late in the season. If he can have a strong pre-season and lock down the starting spot, you can look at his last nine games in 2013-14  and be safe drafting a potential sleeper anywhere after pick 75 – those stats are better than other Cs such as Roy Hibbert, Miles Plumlee or Tyson Chandler.

Bradley Beal – Beal was somewhat of a disappointment this season. I drafted him in multiple leagues and was hoping for that big second year leap that many young players take – it didn’t happen. He crushed it in the playoffs, so his likely draft position is probably 10-15 spots higher than it was before the postseason as he has more name recognition from the exposure. He’s not as much as a three point/scoring specialist as Kevin Martin or Klay Thompson, so you can expect to see him going off the draft board anywhere after pick 50 I suspect – at which point he’ll be a Bradley steal. He should push 20 points per game next season and I’ll have no qualms about taking him over bigger names like the aforementioned Thompson or even, gasp, Kobe Bryant! Beal is already comparable to some current/former top tier fantasy SGs, but he is two years younger than these other players were in their sophomore seasons, as per the graphic below:

Nerlens Noel – Zack has already covered the likely fantasy value of the once ‘lock’ for the 2013 1^st overall pick, so I won’t go into too much detail. Noel has the rare ability to contribute in both steals and blocks at the 4 or 5, so you’re going to want to monitor his summer league and preseason showings, to see if he can bang with the big boys. It wouldn’t surprise me if he has a Marcus Camby type start to his career – ie solid rebounds, more than a steal per game and a minimum of two blocks per contest.

5 Players to avoid in 2014-2015

Zack

Victor Oladipo – As a Magic fan, I hope I’m wrong on this one but I’m being unbiased. I know putting him here and not the “players to watch” list will put me in the minority. It’s not that I don’t think Dipo will be good, because I do like him, but I know his ADP will be way too high for what I expect from him. With Jameer almost assuredly gone, some will expect Dipo to be the PG but he’s just simply not an NBA caliber point man. For short stints he can handle it but not as the primary ball handler. I expect the Magic to take a PG with their early draft pick (likely Dante Exum) and a PF with their other first round pick. This leaves a logjam at the wing spots where Dipo will still get run but not enough to garner his draft spot in my opinion.

Dwyane Wade – Wade had an ADP of 14 this past season and I expect that to drop to the 20s but I still wouldn’t be buying any shares of DWade. He just seems to be more nagged by injuries the past few seasons and is a frustrating player to own. He’s missed a lot of time when it mattered most for his fantasy owners the past couple of years and I don’t like messing with players like that. His points and blocks have dropped each of the last two seasons and his inability to hit the deep ball just further buries him on my rankings.

Brook Lopez – He will be ready to go by training camp and while he is an elite scorer when healthy and his blocks are solid but I like a big man who can grab boards. Six boards a game is not what I want from a fairly early drafted big man. Add in the fact that he has missed the majority of two of the last three seasons with foot injuries, I want no part of it. It just seems too Yao-esque for my liking. Someone else can take that gamble.

Kevin Martin – Always relied on to supply his owners with points, trifectas and FT%, Martin has stayed inside the top 100 ADP for a while now. I don’t have any stats (found some! – Sam) to back up my feelings here besides I think his best days are behind him and I doubt the next T’Wolves coach will be as big a Kev fan as Rick Adelman. His treys are no longer elite and the points just aren’t enough for me to pay for alone, even if they stay up which I am pessimistic on.

Andrew Wiggins – I have no clue who will draft him in the top three, but I do know that he’ll be highly hyped regardless of where he lands. I’d expect that hype to carry him into the top 50 of ADP, and while I think he’ll be a good player in time, I don’t think he’s NBA ready. That’s not a bad thing really, compare his size and game to Paul George for example. George didn’t get a ton of minutes his rookie season until late, while his sophomore season was an improvement as he started all 66 games, but not until his third season did he become a top 50 player. Obviously he was much better than top 50 his third season, but just saying for this arguments sake. Wiggins will be good but not near his ADP good, so I will be avoiding the young gun winger out of Kansas this season.

Sam

Nikola Pekovic – Another one of those PF/C types who just doesn’t do anything that stands out. He can score around 15-17 points per game as well as rebound well at around 8-9 per, but he doesn’t block shots, steal, or make threes and his free throw percentage isn’t exactly an asset at 74.7 for his career. I want my C to do more, but if he’s there late then he’s worth adding – but be weary of his injury history. For a guy who looks like he kills his dinner with his bare hands each night, he has his fair share of stints on the bench, as over his four seasons in the NBA he’s missed 17, 19, 20 and 28 games – you don’t have to be able to draw graphs to know that’s pointing up (not in a good way) each year.

Tony Parker – I’ve never been a massive fan of Parker’s game and this season was no different. With the always awesome Gregg Popovich at the helm, Parker’s minutes dropped from his usual 32 minutes per night to a frustratingly low (from a fantasy perspective) 29.4 per game. The emergence of Patty Mills necessitated this drop, as did Coach Pop reducing the workload on the 12 year vet to ensure freshness for the playoffs – and it has paid off for the Spurs. I don’t know about you, but if I’m drafting a PG in the top 50 (or an average of 30^th in ESPN leagues this year!), I want more bang for my buck than 0.5 steals or 0.4 threes. Yahoo also had him ranked 30th overall coming into this season, despite being ranked 60^th in what was his best fantasy season last year. That overall ranking placed him ahead of Damian Lillard, Monta Ellis, Eric Bledsoe, Jeff Teague, Goran Dragic and Kyle Lowry. He may bounce back next year, but he’s not going to be that 21-7 player who could carry your field goal and free throw percentages. Anywhere after pick 75, take a flyer.

Carlos Boozer – The Booze cruise has officially dried up. His inability to play crunch minutes or defend anyone with footwork better than a sofa has caused his fantasy production to shrivel up. He was barely rosterable this season and only held value in really deep leagues where his rebounds had some value. The field goal percentage has fallen off the face of the earth at just 46%, while the defensive stats (0.7 steals and 0.3 blocks) would make Eddy Curry blush. He’s likely to get amnestied or traded by the Bulls which is why I love Zack’s sleeper pick next year (Taj Gibson), but if Boozer does end up starting he’s not likely to improve in any stat next season except possibly field goal percentage.

Eric Gordon – Gordon made more money than James Harden, Serge Ibaka, Al Jefferson and Dirk Nowitzki – all of whom thoroughly outplayed the former borderline All Star. The Suns avoided a dodgy-kneed bullet when New Orleans matched the max deal they signed him to, as he’s another player who is simply too hurt too often to warrant being on your roster. The last four seasons he has missed 20, 26, 57 and 40 games, along with 18 games this season. You can’t draft someone who doesn’t play and even when they do, they deliver sigh inducing production. His scoring dropped for the third straight season to just 15.4 points per game, which ranked him below such fantasy phenoms Jodie Meeks and Dion Waiters. You can do better in the first 100 picks next season.

George Hill – I like George Hill’s game, especially as he regularly qualifies at both PG and SG. The fact remains, however, that as long as Lance Stephenson and Paul George are around, there are only going to be so many assists Hill will accumulate. He was BAD for a number of games last season, particularly this stretch where he simply looked ordinary. He’s better suited to being a 6^th man (ie a Jason Terry or Jamal Crawford) type off the bench for a very good team, so don’t bank on a bounce-back even though he has his improved his numbers slightly during this season’s playoffs. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Pacers attempt to upgrade at PG in the offseason, as Hill just isn’t quite ‘enough’ at lead guard for a team with championship aspirations.

Biggest Fantasy Sleeper for 2014-15

Zack

Jared Sullinger – I feel like although Sully had moments this season that he showed he could be a really good fantasy big man, most chalked it up to him being on a poor Celtics team. I think Sullinger will come out in 2014-15 and solidify his name amongst the top 15 PFs in fantasy. I’m optimistic that he continues to improve his mid-range jumper and love that he has the range to knock down treys as well. He’ll no doubt be the starter at PF for the Celtics next season and I am currently projecting him at 15ppg – 10rpg – 2apg – 1bpg – 1 trey/gm with improved FG% due to a more consistent jumper and he’s always been solid from the free-throw line. I’d imagine he’ll be ranked on most leagues around 110 to 125 and I believe he’ll end up in the top 60. I’m always a fan of players with loads of potential in their third season and this is my pick from the 2012 class to go from a later in the pack ADP player to becoming a fantasy beast.

Sam

Victor Oladipo – Zack and I couldn’t make this up – one of his biggest ‘avoid’ players is my biggest sleeper! I love Dipo’s fantasy game. He clearly isn’t a pass first point guard, nor is he a good shooting two guard – but he’s a combo guard with ridiculous athleticism and speed and there is always a place for that on an NBA team. He had some huge fantasy games on the season, including a triple double against fellow rookie MCW and a career best 35 point outing against the stingy Chicago Bulls. You have to assume the Magic aren’t going to bring back Jameer Nelson as it will stymie VO’s growth and inhibit his time with the ball. But – and this is a Glen Davis sized ‘but’ – with at least two elite PG prospects in this year’s draft (Dante Exum and Marcus Smart), there is a chance Orlando could run a Phoenix Suns style line-up with two point guards (that’s if you count Dipo as a PG) if they can’t land one of the potential stars like Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid or Jabari Parker. Either way, expect the assists to stay solid at around 5-6 per game, but his scoring, rebounds, steals and threes should all rise. If he plays 34-36 minutes a night, he will excel. He played at least 34 minutes in 32 games this season, averaging 16.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 2.2 steals and 1.1 threes per game. Sure, there is bad with the good, like his 40% clip from the field and 3.7 turnovers per game, but you have to love a young guard who gets to the line and converts, as he got to the line 4.9 times per game in those 32 contests while knocking down 80% of them. Check out the rookie year comparisons below between Oladipo, Westbrook and fellow star combo guard, Dwyane Wade. As you can see, Dipo compares extremely favorably with the other two All Stars. Don’t expect him to immediately be a 20-5-6 guy like the other two, but if he’s there after pick 50 – draft him and hold onto him – even more so in keeper leagues.

So there you have it, an up and down season…of fantasy writing from Zack and I! There were some amazing stats thrown up and next season will be no different with the most anticipated draft class in a decade.

*The rookie seasons compared to Giannis (Player 1) were: 2-Paul George, 3-Nicolas Batum, 4-Danny Granger and 5-Josh Smith, 6-Scottie Pippen.

Zack and I have loved writing about fantasy NBA for the Fix this year and you can always hit us both up on Twitter with any NBA related questions @BigZack and @macetastic.