2014 Fantasy BaseballAlan HarrisonFantasy BaseballFront Office

2014 Fantasy Baseball, Week 4 Tools of the Trade: The Charlie Blackmon Trade Market

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Charlie Blackmon

TheFantasyFix.com’s “Tools of the Trade” is a unique guide for owners to use while attempting to make an even trade with their league-mates in a standard 12-team mixed, 5×5 head-to-head or rotisserie redraft league.

The values present in this guide are simply the basis for a trade. A full-blown analysis of each team’s strengths and weaknesses are essential prior to proposing or accepting a trade offer.

How to use the guide: Ideally, owners will agree to a trade that will aid both sides and stay within $2-3 of each other in a one-for-one and $4-5 in a multi-player deal, according to our chart.

The Week 1 “Tools of the Trade” was free for all readers, but going forward, the “Tools of the Trade” will only be available to Front Office members. Learn the benefits of being a Front Office member here.

Now onto the chart:

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Player Value Player Value Player Value
Mike Trout – LAA OF $41 Matt Carpenter – StL 3B $12 Rajai Davis – Det OF $5
Miguel Cabrera – Det 3B $40 Julio Teheran – Atl P $12 Adam LaRoche – Was 1B $5
Paul Goldschmidt – Ari 1B $39 Mike Napoli – Bos 1B $12 Jim Johnson – Oak P $5
Giancarlo Stanton – Mia OF $38 Brian Dozier – Min 2B $12 Norichika Aoki – KC OF $5
Carlos Gonzalez – Col OF $37 Greg Holland – KC P $12 Ryan Howard – Phi 1B $5
Ryan Braun – Mil OF $37 Austin Jackson – Det OF $12 Ernesto Frieri – LAA P $5
Robinson Cano – Sea 2B $36 Justin Morneau – Col 1B $11 Tim Lincecum – SF P $4
Freddie Freeman – Atl 1B $35 Jeff Samardzija – ChC P $11 Mike Morse – SF OF $4
Troy Tulowitzki – Col SS $35 Shelby Miller – StL P $11 Tyler Skaggs – LAA P $4
Adam Wainwright – StL P $34 Jose Reyes – Tor SS $11 Matt Garza – Mil P $4
Hanley Ramirez – LAD SS $34 Brian McCann – NYY C $11 Ike Davis – Pit 1B $4
Andrew McCutchen – Pit OF $33 Lance Lynn – StL P $11 Kyle Lohse – Mil P $4
Carlos Gomez – Mil OF $33 Jon Lester – Bos P $11 Chase Headley – SD 3B $4
Jose Fernandez – Mia P $33 Sonny Gray – Oak P $11 Michael Bourn – Cle OF $4
Adrian Beltre – Tex 3B $33 Josh Hamilton – LAA OF $11 J.J. Hardy – Bal SS $4
Albert Pujols – LAA 1B $32 Aroldis Chapman – Cin P $11 Ryan Zimmerman – Was 3B $4
Chris Davis – Bal 1B $30 Trevor Rosenthal – StL P $11 John Axford – Cle P $4
Edwin Encarnacion – Tor 1B $30 Starlin Castro – ChC SS $11 Derek Dietrich – Mia 2B $4
Evan Longoria – TB 3B $28 Desmond Jennings – TB OF $11 Carl Crawford – LAD OF $4
David Wright – NYM 3B $28 Chris Colabello – Min 1B $11 Dexter Fowler – Hou OF $4
Felix Hernandez – Sea P $28 Jonathan Lucroy – Mil C $11 Yovani Gallardo – Mil P $4
Yu Darvish – Tex P $27 Francisco Rodriguez – Mil P $11 Marcell Ozuna – Mia OF $4
Jose Bautista – Tor OF $27 Huston Street – SD P $11 Dan Uggla – Atl 2B $4
Cliff Lee – Phi P $27 Jose Altuve – Hou 2B $9 Tommy Hunter – Bal P $4
Adam Jones – Bal OF $26 Billy Hamilton – Cin OF $9 Jose Quintana – CWS P $4
Joey Votto – Cin 1B $23 Charlie Blackmon – Col OF $9 Jose Valverde – NYM P $4
Clayton Kershaw – LAD P $23 Mike Minor – Atl P $9 Adeiny Hechevarria – Mia SS $4
Justin Upton – Atl OF $23 Aaron Hill – Ari 2B $9 Todd Frazier – Cin 3B $4
Yasiel Puig – LAD OF $22 Devaris Gordon – LAD SS $9 Matt Joyce – TB OF $3
Stephen Strasburg – Was P $22 Hisashi Iwakuma – Sea P $9 Justin Masterson – Cle P $3
Jason Kipnis – Cle 2B $22 Ervin Santana – Atl P $9 Jhonny Peralta – StL SS $3
Jacoby Ellsbury – NYY OF $22 Daniel Murphy – NYM 2B $9 Seth Smith – SD OF $3
Chase Utley – Phi 2B $22 C.J. Wilson – LAA P $9 Jim Henderson – Mil P $3
Jay Bruce – Cin OF $22 Alexander Cobb – TB P $9 Zach McAllister – Cle P $3
Alex Rios – Tex OF $21 Pablo Sandoval – SF 3B $9 Drew Smyly – Det P $3
Max Scherzer – Det P $21 Joe Mauer – Min C $9 Brandon Moss – Oak 1B $3
Chris Sale – CWS P $21 Jimmy Rollins – Phi SS $8 Jose Veras – ChC P $3
Matt Holliday – StL OF $21 Melky Cabrera – Tor OF $8 Josh Reddick – Oak OF $3
Madison Bumgarner – SF P $21 Danny Salazar – Cle P $8 Corey Kluber – Cle P $3
Justin Verlander – Det P $21 Steve Cishek – Mia P $8 Alejandro De Aza – CWS OF $3
Prince Fielder – Tex 1B $21 Matt Adams – StL 1B $8 Clay Buchholz – Bos P $3
Ian Desmond – Was SS $21 Christian Yelich – Mia OF $8 Torii Hunter – Det OF $3
Bryce Harper – Was OF $20 Francisco Liriano – Pit P $8 Trevor Plouffe – Min 3B $3
Mark Trumbo – Ari OF $20 Coco Crisp – Oak OF $8 Josmil Pinto – Min C $2
Jason Heyward – Atl OF $20 Mat Latos – Cin P $8 Lucas Duda – NYM OF $2
Jose Abreu – CWS 1B $20 Hiroki Kuroda – NYY P $8 Adam Lind – Tor 1B $2
Elvis Andrus – Tex SS $20 Matt Wieters – Bal C $8 Chris Johnson – Atl 3B $2
Brandon Belt – SF 1B $20 Xander Bogaerts – Bos SS $8 Travis Wood – ChC P $2
Starling Marte – Pit OF $20 Leonys Martin – Tex OF $8 Mark Buehrle – Tor P $2
David Price – TB P $20 Doug Fister – Was P $8 Garrett Richards – LAA P $2
Matt Kemp – LAD OF $19 Glen Perkins – Min P $8 Neil Walker – Pit 2B $2
Johnny Cueto – Cin P $19 Kyle Seager – Sea 3B $8 Kole Calhoun – LAA OF $2
Carlos Beltran – NYY OF $18 Anthony Cingrani – Cin P $7 Brett Lawrie – Tor 3B $2
Shin-Soo Choo – Tex OF $18 Manny Machado – Bal 3B $7 Russell Martin – Pit C $2
Alexei Ramirez – CWS SS $18 Shane Victorino – Bos OF $7 Will Venable – SD OF $2
Ben Zobrist – TB 2B $18 Grant Balfour – TB P $7 Bradley Miller – Sea SS $2
Adrian Gonzalez – LAD 1B $18 Billy Butler – KC DH $7 Brandon Crawford – SF SS $2
Craig Kimbrel – Atl P $18 Salvador Perez – KC C $7 Marcus Semien – CWS 3B $2
Josh Donaldson – Oak 3B $18 Joakim Soria – Tex P $7 Juan Uribe – LAD 3B $2
Masahiro Tanaka – NYY P $16 Jason Grilli – Pit P $7 Mike Moustakas – KC 3B $2
James Shields – KC P $16 George Springer – Hou OF $7 Yan Gomes – Cle C $2
Ian Kinsler – Det 2B $16 Joe Nathan – Det P $7 Mike Zunino – Sea C $2
Jayson Werth – Was OF $16 Yordano Ventura – KC P $7 Tyler Flowers – CWS C $2
Buster Posey – SF C $15 Nathan Eovaldi – Mia P $7 Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Mia C $2
Pedro Alvarez – Pit 3B $15 Alex Wood – Atl P $7 Miguel Montero – Ari C $2
David Ortiz – Bos DH $15 Adam Eaton – CWS OF $7 Yasmani Grandal – SD C $2
Kenley Jansen – LAD P $15 Dan Haren – LAD P $6 Dioner Navarro – Tor C $2
Zack Greinke – LAD P $15 A.J. Burnett – Phi P $6 A.J. Pierzynski – Bos C $1
Aramis Ramirez – Mil 3B $15 CC Sabathia – NYY P $6 Alex Avila – Det C $1
Andrew Cashner – SD P $15 Dayan Viciedo – CWS OF $6 Nick Swisher – Cle 1B $1
Hunter Pence – SF OF $15 Jean Segura – Mil SS $6 Carlos Ruiz – Phi C $1
Alex Gordon – KC OF $15 Martin Perez – Tex P $6 James Loney – TB 1B $1
Anthony Rizzo – ChC 1B $15 Addison Reed – Ari P $6 Evan Gattis – Atl C $1
Gio Gonzalez – Was P $14 LaTroy Hawkins – Col P $6 Will Middlebrooks – Bos 3B $1
Wilin Rosario – Col C $14 Howie Kendrick – LAA 2B $6 Yangervis Solarte – NYY 2B $1
Jordan Zimmermann – Was P $14 Andrelton Simmons – Atl SS $6 Gerardo Parra – Ari OF $1
Gerrit Cole – Pit P $14 Jed Lowrie – Oak SS $6 Jackie Bradley – Bos OF $1
Cole Hamels – Phi P $14 Victor Martinez – Det DH $6 Martin Prado – Ari 3B $1
Carlos Santana – Cle C $14 Jedd Gyorko – SD 2B $6 J.P. Arencibia – Tex C $1
Nelson Cruz – Bal OF $14 Corey Hart – Sea 1B $6 Jake Peavy – Bos P $1
Eric Hosmer – KC 1B $14 Tyson Ross – SD P $6 Ben Revere – Phi OF $1
Dustin Pedroia – Bos 2B $14 Eric Young – NYM OF $6 R.A. Dickey – Tor P $1
Yoennis Cespedes – Oak OF $14 Jonathan Papelbon – Phi P $6 Danny Espinosa – Was 2B $1
Homer Bailey – Cin P $13 Curtis Granderson – NYM OF $6 Chris Owings – Ari SS $1
Sergio Romo – SF P $13 Brett Gardner – NYY OF $6 Ian Kennedy – SD P $1
Koji Uehara – Bos P $13 Emilio Bonifacio – ChC 2B $6 Ryan Hanigan – TB C $1
David Robertson – NYY P $13 Brandon Phillips – Cin 2B $6 Derek Jeter – NYY SS $1
Michael Cuddyer – Col OF $13 Jason Castro – Hou C $6 Asdrubal Cabrera – Cle SS $1
Wil Myers – TB OF $13 Marco Estrada – Mil P $6 Sean Doolittle – Oak P $1
Anibal Sanchez – Det P $13 Jered Weaver – LAA P $5 Luke Gregerson – Oak P $1
Everth Cabrera – SD SS $13 B.J. Upton – Atl OF $5 Travis d’Arnaud – NYM C $1
Domonic Brown – Phi OF $13 Devin Mesoraco – Cin C $5 Hector Rondon – ChC P $1
Matt Cain – SF P $12 Rafael Soriano – Was P $5 Jonathan Broxton – Cin P $1
Yadier Molina – StL C $12 Angel Pagan – SF OF $5 Casey Janssen – Tor P $1
Michael Brantley – Cle OF $12 Justin Smoak – Sea 1B $5 Aaron Harang – Atl P $1
Allen Craig – StL 1B $12 Chris Archer – TB P $5 Chris Tillman – Bal P $1
Hyun-Jin Ryu – LAD P $12 Jonathan Villar – Hou SS $5 Drew Hutchison – Tor P $1
Nolan Arenado – Col 3B $12 Alfonso Soriano – NYY OF $5 Cody Allen – Cle P $1
Anthony Rendon – Was 2B $12 Fernando Rodney – Sea P $5 Matt Lindstrom – CWS P $1
Michael Wacha – StL P $12 Khris Davis – Mil OF $5 Corey Dickerson – Col OF $1

Trading isn’t easy. It’s fun, but not easy. Remember that you don’t have to “win” the trade in order to pull the trigger. If you’re improving your team, then you should make the deal.

Each-and-every week we’ll review fantasy baseball trade proposals and/or offers that come in via our “Quick Fix” and Twitter to determine if the offer is fair and whether or not the trade should be proposed or accepted.

This week I was looking for deals regarding players like Carlos Santana and Brett Lawrie who have yet to turn it on as well as Charlie Blackmon and Brian Doizer who’ve started the season off scorching hot (well, except for Dozier’s batting average).

Not many folks responded to Brett Lawrie who is slashing .135/.198/.297 with four dongs and 15 RBIs in 20 games. The frustration surrounding Lawrie is understood. He’s been a “could be” or “should be” type of player for the past few seasons now, but Lawrie has yet to stay healthy enough to approach the 20/20 plateau that some — including myself — thought he could reach. In addition to the horrific slash line, Lawrie is walking less (6.2% BB%) and striking out more (19.8% K%) versus his career averages. He’s swinging and missing (9.8% SwStr%) more and making less contact in the zone (84.4% Z-Contact%). Finally, when looking at his batted ball profile, we see that he’s hitting the ball on the ground (51.7% GB%) more and hitting line drives less (5.2% LD%) than he ever has before. All of these factors — and probably more — lead to a .109 average on balls in play. Gross. Lawrie owns a .288 career average on balls in play, so this current funk that Lawrie is in, is unlikely to continue for much longer. I’d be checking around to see what it would cost to grab Lawrie, but temper your expectations.

Charlie Blackmon ia a different story. The Rockies’ outfielder entered Spring Training in a position battle with Corey Dickerson, but is now the number one player on ESPN’s Player Rater and the number two player in Yahoo!’s game. In 21 games, Blackmon is triple slashing .411/.450/.671 with four homers and five swipes to go along with 15 runs and 13 runs batted in. Blackmon’s plate discipline is rather impressive through 21 games (80 PAs). His walk and strikeout rates are an identical 6.3% (five of each) and he’s making fantastic contact on pitches both in (96.8% Z-Contact%) and out (82.4% O-Contact%). The main concern I have with Charlie Blackmon is the 19% HR/FB rate when he’s never exceeded a 9.8% HR/FB over his career. The spike in HR/FB reminds me a lot of Jean Segura’s early-season spike in homers last season. And as we remember, Segura’s clobbered 11 homers  prior to the All-Star Break, but has hit just one in 90+ games since. Does this mean that Blackmon’s output will tail off a lot? No. Just a little? Probably. The elevation of the home park benefits Blackmon a ton, so hopefully he can sustain some of the surge.

So what are we doing with Charlie Blackmon? I’m fielding offers, that’s for sure. It never hurts to see what others are willing to pay for the number one/two player in the game (right now). Your potential return on investment is likely to be significant — Blackmon owned an ECR of 359 and a preseason ADP of 461 at FantasyPros — and his value can hardly get higher. And if you’re not happy with what others are willing to offer, then hold, which is probably the safest of the plays.

Some people are trying to cash in on their shares of Charlie Blackmon, thoguh. Let’s see what these fantasy baseballers received via trade and how those deals match up with our beloved chart:

A 16-team league is pretty deep, so maybe the Blackmon owner was desperate for an arm. Even if that is the case, a $9 Blackmon for a $3 Masterson appears to be lopsided according to our chart. But keep in mind, our chart is geared towards 12-teamers, so maybe this worked out for both owners. 

A $9 Charlie Blackmon for an $8 Francisco Liriano looks to be a sqaure deal according to our chart. The only problem I have with this deal is the size of the league. In a 10-teamer, the starters on the wire should be plentiful, so if I were going to deal the outfielder in this situation, I’d be shooting for the stars. I would have been asking for pitcher along the lines of a Lance Lynn, Mike Minor or Sonny Gray. But again, this is all without knowing the specifics. 

 

Adam is a jokester. He’s a funny guy. Go give him a follow.

This gentleman was speaking about Carlos Santana, who is also off to a slow start this season. His walks are up (20.% BB%) but so are his strikeouts (21.7% K%). He’s making less contact on balls both in and out of the zone and the ones he’s putting in play aren’t falling for hits (.170 BABIP vs. .277 career BABIP). I’d be looking to deal for Santana where I can, if the price is right.

In this situation, a $22 Chase Utley for a $14 Carlos Santana make look unfair. However, it’s a good chance to buy on a guy like Santana if you took on an additional second baseman during the draft in fear of Utley’s lingering health issues. I’d try and get a little more than just Santana for Utley, but don’t let that be a sticking point in the deal.

Have a question about our Week 4 Tools of the Trade? Leave it in the comments below.

The concept for the this trade value chart has been adapted from Dave Richard’s fantasy football work at CBS.

All of our statistics are courtesy of our friends at FanGraphs .

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