Central Division

The Central Division definitely has some intrigue attached to it in 2013-14. Chicago and Indiana figure to battle it out for the division crown, as the two franchises have combined to win the last three division titles. With a healthy Derrick Rose the Bulls should have no difficultly winning it. But the Pacers matchup well with Chicago and are just as deep as the Bulls. Cleveland drafted Anthony Bennett No. 1 overall and signed Jarrett Jack and Andrew Bynum, while Detroit traded for Brandon Jennings and signed Josh Smith. Both teams figure to be better this season. Then we have Milwaukee, stuck in NBA purgatory. Let’s go in-depth on each team.

Team: Chicago Bulls

Last Season Record: 45-37

Key Fantasy Additions: Derrick Rose, Mike Dunleavy

Key Fantasy Losses: Nate Robinson

2013 Draft Picks: Tony Snell, Erik Murphy

Team Overview: While how effective Derrick Rose is coming off his knee injury remains to be seen, Chicago enters the 2013-14 season with very few question marks. Its starting five – Rose, Jimmy Butler, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer – is one of the best in the league, and even Dunleavy, Kirk Hinrich and Taj Gibson can contribute off the bench. Rose has played in two preseason games so far this year and has done just fine in just over 20 minutes per game. He seems to be fully healed and ready to go for this season. I wouldn’t take him in the middle of the first round, but pairing him with a big at the end of round one is a good idea. I have him ranked fifth among point guards, behind Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Kyrie Irving and John Wall.

Butler put together an impressive sophomore season, and I’ll touch on him more below. Deng had another fine season in ’12-’13, even without Rose. He averaged 16 points, six rebounds, 1 3PM and 1 steal. His shooting has dipped in the past two years, but with Rose back and the emergence of Butler Deng’s percentages should rise again back closer to 45 percent from the field and 35 percent from distance. Despite posting a 16-10 line last year Boozer’s other numbers weren’t as pretty. His true shooting percentage fell to a career-low and his points per 40 minutes and rebound rate continued to fall from previous seasons. He’ll still be good for close to a double-double every night, but he won’t contribute much more. Noah should benefit greatly from Rose’s return. Noah’s FG% should go back up north of 50 percent, and his turnovers will come back down. He won’t get as many assists, but the other parts of his game will continue to shine.

Pressing Questions: Can Jimmy Butler take “the leap”? Butler improved almost across the board last year, cumulatively and per 40 minutes. He shot more at the rim and from three-point land, making more of his tries, too. His 68 percent at the rim and 58 percent eFG from three were both better than league average for shooting guards. Despite his shooting percentages, his 2012-13 numbers (8 points, 4 REB, .5 3PM) look very pedestrian. But he only played 26 minutes a night on average. If we look at his playoff numbers, when he was playing against the best competition out there Butler shined: 40 minutes a game, 43/40/81, 13 points, 5.2 REB, 2.7 AST, 1.3 3PM, 1.3 STL. As a starter in the regular season Butler averaged 14.5 and 7. Don’t break the bank on him, but the 24-year-old is poised for another improvement this season.

Sleeper: Mike Dunleavy – Putting Butler here makes no sense. Dunleavy averaged 1.7 3’s last year in Milwaukee and should be able to do close to that this year. He’s not worth drafting, but if you’ve got an open spot on any random night of the season pick him up and he should contribute some.

Breakout Candidate: Butler

Rebound Candidate: Deng

Bust Candidate: Boozer

Depth Chart: 

Point guard	Derrick Rose	Kirk Hinrich	Marquis Teague
Shooting guard	Jimmy Butler
Small forward	Luol Deng	Mike Dunleavy
Power forward	Carlos Boozer	Taj Gibson	Erik Murphy
Center	Joakim Noah	Nazr Mohammed

Team: Indiana Pacers

Last Season Record: 49-32

Key Fantasy Additions: Luis Scola, Chris Copeland, C.J. Watson

Key Fantasy Losses: D.J. Augustin

2013 Draft Picks: Solomon Hill

Team Overview: The Pacers also have one of the best starting lineups in the league. George Hill has developed into a very nice point guard. The 27-year-old contributes across the board, turning in basically an efficient 14-5-4 line last season with a steal and 1.7 3PM per game while upping his assist rate and decreasing his turnover rate for the second straight year. You should take him in your draft. Paul George had a great year last year, but we don’t know how he and Danny Granger will co-exist after George’s big season. I expect George’s cumulative stats to come down just a bit while his FG% should go up some. He’s a top-10 overall player. Granger used to be a fantasy stud, but injuries have limited him greatly. He’s only once played in more than 80 games during a season. His numbers have fallen across the board in the past couple seasons, and they should continue to fall some with George and Hill around. David West is a great shooter for his position, and his ability to rack up steals, blocks and even assists makes him a good middle-round addition. Roy Hibbert doesn’t have much upside because he doesn’t play too many minutes, but the center finished fourth in blocks per game last year and rebounded after a poor start to the season to shoot 50 percent after the All-Star break.

Pressing Questions: Should you draft Granger? Outside of the free throw line Granger’s never been a very efficient scorer. He used to be a fantasy stud, but his production has leveled off in past seasons and the emergence of Hill, George, Stephenson and Hibbert, along with West’s efficiency, don’t signal good things to come for the 30-year-old. Granger’s usage rate has come down each of his last three full seasons, and with his injury concerns mixed with Indiana’s desire for a deep playoff run surely his minutes will be limited. I wouldn’t draft Granger until you’re sure every player you’d consider safer is already off the board. Even then he might not be worth a pick over someone with more upside. I recommend staying away from him.

Sleeper: Hill was one of only six point guards to score at least 14 points, assist on 4.5 baskets a game and make at least 1.7 3s a game last year. If you decide to go heavy on the bigs early in your draft Hill is a very good PG2.

Breakout Candidate: George

Rebound Candidate: Hibbert

Bust Candidate: Granger

Depth Chart:  

Point guard	George Hill	C.J. Watson
Shooting guard	Danny Granger	Lance Stephenson
Small forward	Paul George	Solomon Hill
Power forward	David West	Luis Scola	Chris Copeland
Center	Roy Hibbert	Ian Mahinmi

 

Team: Cleveland Cavaliers

Last Season Record: 24-58

Key Fantasy Additions: Andrew Bynum, Jarrett Jack, Earl Clark

Key Fantasy Losses: Marreese Speights

2013 Draft Picks: Anthony Bennett

Team Overview: With the Cavs you can start right at the top with Kyrie Irving. The former No. 1 overall pick played pretty well in his sophomore season. He didn’t improve too much statistically and still has several injury concerns, but some see Irving as a Derrick Rose clone. Rose took off in his third year, and we believe Irving will too. He’s a top-1o pick. Dion Waiters figures to be the team’s starting two-guard, but don’t spend too high a pick on him. He had an OK rookie season, but doesn’t do much other than score. And with the ball-dominant Irving and super sixth man Jack, who can play both guard spots, the opportunities for marked improvement are slim for now. The small forward position looks to be a time share to begin the year with Alonzo Gee and Earl Clark. Both don’t do much that can help your team so leave them alone. Tristan Thompson and Anderson Varejao look to be locked in as the 4-5 starters to begin the season. Thompson switched shooting hands this summer, and the early reports are promising: He went 7-10 from the floor and 3-4 from the line in his preseason debut Tuesday. The 22-year-old improved greatly last year, averaging a double-double in the second half. Even with a crowded front-court, Thompson is much more experienced (and better) than Bennett and Tyler Zeller and isn’t near as injury-prone as Varejao and Andrew Bynum.

Pressing Questions: What to do with the injury-prone bigs? Varejao played in 25 games last year and averaged 14 points and a Love-ian 14 boards as well as 1.5 steals. The Big Brazilian hasn’t played more than 31 games in any of the last three years, but when he does play he plays well. If you can get him after the first 10-12 rounds take him and just be happy with what he’ll get you when he’s playing. Last week, still not cleared for contact, Bynum said he was “definitely” playing in Tuesday’s preseason game. Well, Bynum definitely (no quotes) didn’t play Tuesday. When healthy Bynum is a force. But after missing all of last year and still not ready to play this year Bynum is only draftable very late when you’re filling out your bench with upside plays.

Sleeper: Jack – The 30-year-old (when the season starts) figures to play close to 30 minutes a game and will help you across the board, although at nothing in particular. He’s a very good reserve guard to roster.

Breakout Candidate: Thompson

Rebound Candidate: Varejao

Bust Candidate: Bynum

Depth Chart:  

Point guard	Kyrie Irving	Jarrett Jack
Shooting guard	Dion Waiters	C.J. Miles
Small forward	Earl Clark	Alonzo Gee
Power forward	Tristan Thompson	Anthony Bennett
Center	Anderson Varejao	Andrew Bynum	Tyler Zeller

 

Team: Detroit Pistons

Last Season Record: 29-53

Key Fantasy Additions: Josh Smith, Brandon Jennings

Key Fantasy Losses: Jose Calderon, Brandon Knight

2013 Draft Picks: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Peyton Siva

Team Overview: Detroit was one of the busier teams in the off-season, acquiring the 24-year-old Jennings and the 27-year-old Smith. Both should be drafted in the first four rounds. Jennings hasn’t improved much from his rookie year, but he’s shooting better, assisting more and turning the ball over less than he was earlier in his career. He should be in line for career-highs in assists, and he’s still young enough to improve on his weaknesses. Smith, just like Jennings, has flashed monster potential but hasn’t improved as much as many people believe he could. But luckily in fantasy basketball we don’t care about his bad shot selection. Playing the 3 in Detroit Smith will probably continue to chuck 3s like he’s Larry Bird. If he can make .8 a game like he did last year that’ll help fantasy owners. Outside of his free throw  and field goal percentages he contributes well in every category, and he should see a spike in assists this year, too. Draft him in the third round.

Monroe is a nice consolation prize for those who wait on bigs. He contributes across the board with solid percentages. He’s in line for another good year. Andre Drummond improved as his rookie season went along and should be in line for a lot of minutes this season as long as he stays out of foul trouble. Drummond’s free throw shooting is horrendous, but he just turned 20 in August and his second-half stats (11 points, 8 REB, 1.1 BLK, 1.2 STL on 67 percent shooting) should be what we can least expect from him this season. A lot of analysts preach to not punt free throw percentage in roto leagues, but the other parts of Drummond’s game are so good you can take him and still win.

Pressing Questions: Detroit drafted Kentavious Caldwell-Pope eighth overall out of Georgia, and the 2012-13 SEC Player of the Year will challenge Rodney Stuckey for the starting shooting guard spot. The 20-year-old scored over 18 points with 2.6 3PM, seven rebounds and two steals a game last year. He’s not an efficient scorer, but with defenses focused on Detroit’s bigs Caldwell-Pope should have plenty of space to work on the perimeter. Stuckey used to be a nice bench player for your fantasy team, but his numbers have fallen off lately. No word has come out of Detroit on who the starting 2-guard will be to open the season, but KCP offers a lot more upside than Stuckey. Both should be drafted, but I’d roll with the rookie first.

Sleeper: Caldwell-Pope

Breakout Candidate: Drummond

Rebound Candidate: Jennings

Bust Candidate: Chauncey Billups – Don’t let the name fool you. Billups’ time is over in the NBA, and he doesn’t need to be rostered.

Depth Chart:  

Point guard	Brandon Jennings	Will Bynum	Peyton Siva
Shooting guard	Rodney Stuckey	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	Chauncey Billups
Small forward	Josh Smith	Kyle Singler
Power forward	Greg Monroe	Jonas Jerebko
Center	Andre Drummond	Josh Harrellson

 

Team: Milwaukee Bucks

Last Season Record: 38-44

Key Fantasy Additions: O.J. Mayo, Brandon Knight, Carlos Delfino, Gary Neal, Caron Butler

Key Fantasy Losses: Mike Dunleavy, Monta Ellis, Brandon Jennings, J.J. Redick

2013 Draft Picks: Nate Wolters, Giannis Antetokounmpo

Team Overview: Mayo should lead the Bucks in scoring this year, building off one of the better seasons of his five-year career. He’ll help you in steals, 3PM, and points. Knight could be in for the best year of his young career so far. He’ll be surrounded by shooters, and while a lot of his numbers remained stagnant in year two they should rise this year. He’s not great at anything, but he’ll be a good low-end PG3/high-end PG4 for you. The small forward position is best left alone, at least as long as Carlos Delfino is injured. Milwaukee traded for Caron Butler, but he’s well past his prime and shouldn’t be drafted. Delfino could be a good source of 3PM and steals, but he’s recovering from foot surgery and his return date is still undetermined. But Delfino should be rostered in most leagues once he returns or if you have a deep bench with a spot for him.

Ersan Ilyasova has now had two very good seasons in a row, shooting 45 percent from distance. The 26-year-old went nuts last year in the second half, shooting 48/45/86 with 17 points, 9 REB, 1.7 3PM and 1 steal. He suffered an ankle injury in Tuesday’s preseason game, and it appears to be serious. Hopefully you’re not drafting for another couple of weeks so you can find out more about when he may return to action. But if you’re drafting soon I wouldn’t draft him before the 10th round. But if he has a return date set that’s fairly soon you can nab him a bit earlier. Larry Sanders broke out last year and signed a four-year, $44 million extension this off-season. The 24-year-old finished second in the league in blocks with 2.8. He didn’t do much elsewhere, but when his minutes went up to 30 a game in the second half he averaged 12 points and 11 boards. Sanders should average a double-double this season and again provide plenty of blocks, but don’t draft him before the fourth round. The rest of his game is still too raw to be drafted that early.

Pressing Questions: Can John Henson continue to improve? Henson’s stats in his rookie year are very unimpressive. But he only played 13 minutes a game. When he started nine games he played 22 minutes a game and scored nine points, collected seven rebounds and had one block and 0.8 steals. If Ilyasova is out for a while Henson should start for the Bucks or at least see plenty of minutes. The 22-year-old could be a mini-Sanders and is worth a look at the end of your draft.

Sleeper: Knight

Breakout Candidate: Mayo

Rebound Candidate: None

Bust Candidate: Butler

Depth Chart:  

Point guard	Brandon Knight	Luke Ridnour	Nate Wolters
Shooting guard	O.J. Mayo	Gary Neal
Small forward	Caron Butler	Carlos Delfino
Power forward	Ersan Ilyasova	John Henson
Center	Larry Sanders	Zaza Pachulia	Ekpe Udoh