Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Saturday’s nine-game evening slate (7:05 ET) around the DFS industry. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections and rankings of the top plays at each position.

Pitching Perspective

[cointent_lockedcontent article_labels=”baseball”]

Cole Hamels and Zack Greinke are your premiere names on the mound tonight, but only Greinke is worth considering as a DFS option. Hamels has a good enough matchup and is on the road in a favorable ball park, but he’s just flat overpriced. He’s the most expensive pitcher of the day on DraftKings and FanDuel, and even with the good matchup and ballpark factored in, his projection doesn’t justify the price. The same is true of Greinke on FD, but he’s priced reasonably enough on DK. His new home park isn’t ideal, but there is strikeout upside against the Cubs tonight.

Perhaps my favorite pitching option of the night is Garrett Richards on FanDuel. His downside is mitigated on FD since that site only subtracts points for earned runs allowed and not hits or walks allowed. He’s also priced much, much better on FD. On DK he’s only $300 cheaper than Greinke, but on FD he’s $1,700-1,800 cheaper than Greinke and Hamels. The matchup with the Rangers is middling, but the game is in LA not Texas, which favors Richards.

After those guys, you’re down to value options. Because I’m likely going with Richards on FD and Greinke in one of my two DK SP slots, let’s discuss the value options on DK. The safest option for cash games is probably Bartolo Colon making his first start of the season against the Phillies. New York is a -180 favorite at home, so the win points are in play for Colon. And the Phillies ranked dead last in wRC+ against right-handers last year, so the matchup is certainly good.

Other options are Vincent Velasquez and Drew Pomeranz, but they come with a fair bit of risk, making them best suited for tournament usage. Velasquez is on the other side of that New York-Philly game, so he’s a long shot to get a win. But he was entirely decent in seven starts last year with a 4.03 ERA and exactly a strikeout per inning. That’s not bad at all for the first seven starts of a career. He’s got three good pitches, so he has the stuff to get through the order multiple times. As for Pomeranz, rostering a pitcher going in Coors is never something you like to do, especially when that pitcher has a career ERA of 4.60 as a starter. But there is the issue of the Rockies being the worst team against left-handed pitching last year, and Pomeranz is incredibly cheap. At only $4,900, there’s enough value potential to use him as your second starter in a GPP lineup.

Stack Options

Houston Astros – Houston had the third best wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching last year. Tonight they’ll face Wily Peralta who posted a 4.72 ERA (4.75 xFIP) last season. Peralta was worse against left-handed hitters, but he was also plenty worse than average against right-handers. Have no fear of using Houston’s righties at the top of the order. Carlos Correa is probably priced out of use on FD for cash games, and Jose Altuve doesn’t make sense for cash on FD. But any of them are fine in a stack. The value is with their lefties, Colby Rasmus, Luis Valbuena and Preston Tucker.

Milwaukee Brewers – On the other side of that game, the Brewers will face Doug Fister, he of the 1.22 HR/9 last season. Like Peralta, Fister, has been worse against left-handers for his career, but right-handers had a .361 wOBA against him last year, so hitters don’t have to have the platoon advantage to knock Fister around. Milwaukee’s best bats are right-handed, and there’s no need to shy away from them. About the only over-priced hitter on the team is Ryan Braun.

New York Mets – While I like Velasquez as a flier today and like his stuff long-term, he’s an option to pick on today. He had a 4.49 xFIP against left-handers last year, and the Mets can throw a pretty lefty-heavy lineup at him. Granderson, Duda, Walker, Conforto and Asdrubal should all be in the lineup with the platoon advantage over Velsaquez. And Duda through Asdrubal should hit 4-5-6-7 in the lineup.

St. Louis Cardinals – Overall, Julio Teheran was decent in his first start of the season, but as was the case last season, he really struggled against lefties. He faced 10 left-handed batters in his first start, and two of them homered and three of them reached base on a walk. That is what you would call not ideal. Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, Brandon Moss and Kolten Wong are good lefty options. Jeremy Hazelbaker and Greg Garcia would also be interesting value options if they drew into the lineup. As for right-handers, Stephen Piscotty could be used to connect a lefty stack a bit.

Tampa Bay Rays – In 44 2/3 career MLB innings, Mike Wright has a 6.04 ERA, 5.28 xFIP and 1.81 HR/9. This game is in Baltimore, which had the third highest park factor for left- and right-handed hitters last year. All of Tampa’s lefties are options, Logan Morrison, Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller and Kevin Kiermaier. But those guys have been hitting 2-4-6-8 (who do we appreciate) in the order, so some right-handers would be needed to fill in the gaps in a stack. Evan Longoria and Desmond Jennings make the most sense for that role hitting out of the 3-5 spots in the order.

Player Rankings

DraftKings

Catcher

1. Jason Castro – $3,300
2. Christian Bethancourt – $2,800
3. Caleb Joseph – $2,900
4. Jonathon Lucroy – $4,000
5. Matt Wieters – $3,400

First Base

1. Lucas Duda – $4,300
2. Matt Adams – $3,000
3. Logan Morrison – $3,700
4. Freddie Freeman – $4,100
5. Brandon Moss – $3,300
6. Tyler White – $3,400

Second Base

1. Neil Walker – $3,900
2. Kolten Wong – $3,600
3. Scooter Gennett – $3,300
4. Colin Walsh – $2,200
5. Christian Colon – $2,900

Third Base

1. Matt Carpenter – $4,100
2. Luis Valbuena – $3,800
3. Maikel Franco – $4,000
4. Evan Longria – $4,200

Shortstop

1. Trevor Story – $3,900
2. Brad Miller – $3,600
3. Jonathan Villar – $3,700
4. Carlos Correa – $5,100
5. Asdrubal Cabrera – $3,600

Outfield

1. Corey Dickerson – $3,900
2. Ramon Flores – $3,400
3. Alejandro de Aza – $3,300
4. Michael Conforto – $3,400
5. Mark Trumbo – $3,900
6. Kevin Kiermaier – $3,800
7. Preston Tucker – $3,500
8. George Springer – $5,100
9. Jeremy Hazelbaker – $2,400

Starting Pitcher

1. Zack Greinke – $10,500
2. Drew Pomeranz – $4,900
3. Vincent Velasquez – $6,800
4. Bartolo Colon – $6,100
5. Garrett Richards – $10,200

FanDuel

Catcher

1. Jason Castro – $2,200
2. Curt Casali – $2,200
3. Derek Norris – $3,000
4. Caleb Jospeh – $2,200
5. Hank Conger – $2,200

First Base

1. Lucas Duda – $2,600
2. Logan Morrison – $2,200
3. Matt Adams – $2,300
4. Freddie Freeman – $3,200
5. Byung-ho Park – $2,600

Second Base

1. Neil Walker – $2,700
2. Kolten Wong – $2,500
3. Scooter Gennett – $2,800
4. Jose Atluve – $3,700
5. Christian Colon – $2,000

Third Base

1. Luis Valbuena – $2,400
2. Matt Carpenter – $3,300
3. Evan Longoria – $3,000
4. Trevor Plouffe – $2,500

Shortstop

1. Brad Miller – $2,200
2. Jonathan Villar – $2,500
3. Alcides Escobar – $2,300
4. Trevor Story – $4,000
5. Asdrubal Cabrera – $2,700

Outfield

1. Corey Dickerson – $3,200
2. George Springer – $3,600
3. Ramo Flores – $2,200
4. Alejandro de Aza – $2,300
5. Michael Conforto – $2,400
6. Kevin Kiermaier – $2,600
7. Preston Tucker – $2,500
8. Curtis Granderson – $3,300
9. Mark Trumbo – $3,000

Starting Pitcher

1. Garrett Richards – $8,700
2. Drew Pomeranz – $4,900
3. Vincent Velasquez – $6,400
4. Carlos Martinez – $9,000
5. Bartolo Colon – $7,200

Research Chart

Below you’ll find my research chart for the day. Projections are derived from ZiPS and adjusted for matchup and ballpark. The closer a color is to green the better and the closer a color is to red the worse. You can download the research chart here.

[/cointent_lockedcontent]