Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: June 24, 2016 – DraftKings & FanDuel Analysis
Below we’ve got breakdowns for each game of Friday’s 15-game evening slate on DraftKings and FanDuel along with player rankings, projections and a research chart.
Game Breakdowns
After the jump we’ll break down each game on Friday night from a DFS perspective.
Dodgers @ Pirates
Nick Tepesch is making a start for the Dodgers tonight, so surely some Pirates have to be in play. The Bucs have been struggling of late as their previously elite wRC+ vs. RHP has fallen to merely ‘good’ at 106. But Tepesch is making his first big league start since 2014, and he has a career ERA of 4.56 (4.55 SIERA) so recent struggles be damned. To get exposure against Tepesch focus on Pittsburgh lefties with Gregory Polanco being the best option and John Jaso and Matt Joyce being salary relief options.
Twins @ Yankees
Masahiro Tanaka is an option today against a Twins team that ranks 22nd in wRC+ vs. RHP with the 10th highest strikeout rate. Tanaka’s strikeout rate has fallen 4.3 percent from where it was last year, though his swinging strike rate is virtually the same and still a healthy 11 percent. It should be noted that his strikeout totals have remained low in recent games and the hope for positive regression in that department has not yet come to fruition. But there’s still good reason to hope for it. If you like Tanaka, his price is much more attractive on DK.
As for bats, the few right-handers the Yankees have are worth a look against Tommy Milone. It’s not so much that Milone has a splits problem, it’s just that the Yankees don’t have any lefties that are any good against LHP, so righties are the only options. Alex Rodriguez has a wRC+ of 140 vs. LHP between this year and last, and Carlos Beltran remains hot with wRC+’s of 154 and 210 in the last 14 and last seven days, respectively. And if you need salary relief, Rob Refsnyder is very cheap on DK and decent against LHP, though you generally shouldn’t seek salary relief at 1B.
Rays @ Orioles
There’s some dong potential in this game. For one, the game is in Baltimore which has HR park factors of 115 and 106 for left- and right-handed hitters, respectively. Tampa has a few lefties that could take advantage of that 115 HR as L park factor against the right-handed Yovani Galladro. Corey Dickerson is rocking a .280 ISO vs. RHP this season, and Brad Miller, a shortstop, has a healthy .201 ISO vs. RHP. Dickerson has been struggling so maybe stay away from him in cash, but he’s very cheap and thus could potentially provide a lot of value if he goes yard. Shortstop is thin today and Miller has been hitting fairly well, so he’s certainly in play.
The O’s will face Matt Moore who is ill-suited to pitch in Baltimore with a career fly ball rate of 41.1 percent (39.3 percent this year). Mark Trumbo has been a bit off of late, but he’s by far the best candidate to take Moore deep. Joey Rickard also has a bit of pop (.215 ISO vs. LHP), and he’s running hot lately with a 209 wRC+ in his last 14.
Cubs @ Marlins
Kyle Hendricks is not an exciting pitcher, but damn if he isn’t extremely consistent. Projection systems don’t like Hendricks much, but presumably they underrate his contact management skills. Among tonight’s starters, Hendricks easily generates the highest rate of soft contact (29 percent) and has the fourth lowest hard hit rate allowed. The dude has allowed more than three earned runs just twice in 13 starts this season and never more than four in a game. His strikeout rate is only a bit above average and the Marlins don’t strike out much, so Hendricks isn’t a GPP play, but no one could fault you for feeling very safe about rostering him in cash on either site.
Indians @ Tigers
Some Indians make for nice GPP plays tonight. On the mound is Danny Salazar whose 29.5 percent K% and 11.7 BB% make him generally suited for GPPs and not cash. That’s exacerbated by his matchup with the Tigers who rank fifth in wRC+ vs. RHP but also have the ninth highest K% vs. RHP. At $13,000 Salazar is probably priced out of use on DK, but at $10,000 he could certainly be used as your one pitcher in an FD GPP.
As for Tribe hitters, the presumed top three in the order of Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor could make for a good GPP mini-stack. All three have a wRC+ of 118 or better vs. RHP between this year and last, and all three have have a wRC+ higher than 120 in the last 14 days. If you like this stack, all three are priced better on DK than FD, though Santana and Lindor are noticeably over-priced while Kipnis is a hair under-priced.
Stack suggestion: Cleveland 1-3
Padres @ Reds
Cody Reed had a solid debut against Houston last week in which he struck out nine Astros in seven innings. He allowed a double and a home run with two outs in the seventh but was very good up to that point. The kid posted a 3.20 ERA in 11 Triple-A starts this season with good control and a decent strikeout rate. He gets the Padres today who rank third in wRC+ vs. LHP, but that’s somewhat driven by their league-leading BABIP vs. LHP. They have the fourth highest K% vs. LHP which gives Reed some GPP appeal. He’s priced better on FD than DK, though it would be tough to rely on him as your one pitcher on FD. His best use is probably as a SP2 in DK GPPs.
As for bats, some San Diego righties are worth a look even if Reed is a GPP option. Wil Myers and Matt Kemp have a wRC+ north of 140 vs. LHP and both have been going very well recently. Both are priced a bit more reasonably on FD but only a bit, so they’re in play on both sites. Derek Norris is also a good option at the always-thin catcher position, and Melvin Upton has also been going quite well lately and comes with reasonable price tags. For the Reds, Joey Votto and his 158 wRC+ vs. RHP and extremely reasonable price tags would be a great option against Colin Rea if Votto plays. He’s been out with an illness, not an injury, so if he’s back in the lineup today, he’s safe to roster.
Stack suggestion: Padres 2-6
Mets @ Braves
Just quickly, Steven Matz and Yoenis Cespedes would be good options from this game, but each is dealing with an injury that probably makes them guys to avoid. Cespedes is dealing with a wrist ailment (never good for power), and Matz will reportedly be watched very cautiously after leaving his last start with elbow tightness.
Red Sox @ Rangers
David Price has gone eight innings in each of his last three starts with 25 strikeouts and only two walks, which has led to a 2.25 ERA and 2.81 xFIP in that stretch. Unfortunately, the variables are not in his favor today as the ball park is hitter-friendly, and the Rangers rank eighth in wRC+ vs. LHP with the ninth lowest K%. Those variables probably make him a GPP-only option, and his price on FD probably makes him a DK GPP-only option. But he’s a good GPP option there with some likely fading him due to the variables and the availability of guys like Scherzer, Salazar, Tanaka and Keuchel around to drive some ownership elsewhere.
Ranger bats are also GPP options against Price. Price has pretty typical, though obviously not pronounced, splits, so some Ranger right-handers could be worth a look on a night they’re likely low owned. Ian Desmond has a 162 wRC+ this season vs. LHP, and Adrian Beltre has a 140 wRC+ vs. LHP between this year and last. Both guys are priced better on DK, and Desmond is priced out of use on FD. Robinson Chirinos owns a career ISO of .231 vs. LHP, so he could make for a nice punt option in GPPs.
The woeful Nick Martinez, he of the 5.08 career SIERA, has the distinct displeasure of facing the team with the best wRC+ vs. RHP. David Ortiz is absolutely worth paying for in this matchup, and fellow lefties like Jackie Bradley Jr. and Travis Shaw (if he’s in the lineup) are also good options. All three are priced more reasonably on FD. Other Boston lineup regulars like Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez and Xander Bogaerts will be tough to roster a) because they’re all quite expensive, and b) because none of them other than Bogaerts have been hitting well lately.
Blue Jays @ White Sox
While I considered the potential appeal of Carlos Rodon in GPPs, the play here is too obviously Blue Jays bats. The top two-thirds of their order should contain five right-handed hitters against a lefty in Rodon who has the following numbers vs. LHH this season: .361 wOBA allowed, 4.47 xFIP, 1.56 HR/9.
Josh Donaldson is obviously a great play as long as yesterday’s off-day was enough to allow him to recover from a stiff neck. Edwin Encarnacion is just as obvious with a wRC+ of 262 in the last 14 days. Devon Travis led off Wednesday against a lefty, and he has a 269 wRC+ in the last seven, so fire him up as well. Russell Martin is a good option at a thin position, and Troy Tulowitzki can also be used in any Toronto stack. If you do stack Jays, don’t skip LHH Michael Saunders. Some will leave him out of the stack since he doesn’t have the platoon advantage, but including him in your stack could, to some degree, help differentiate an otherwise chalky play.
Stack suggestion: Toronto 1-5 or 2-6
Nationals @ Brewers
He’s expensive, but figure out a way to get Max Scherzer into your cash game lineups. Milwaukee ranks 19th in wRC+ vs. RHP with the highest strikeout rate in the league vs. RHP. Relative to the cap he’s probably a bit more expensive on FD than DK, but just find a way to get him in cash lineups. Feel free to fade away in GPP as he should be fairly heavily owned in all formats despite the price tag.
As for bats, Washington’s top lefties, Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy are really the only options. It’s a small sample size, but Milwaukee starter Zachary Davies has a 3.71 XFIP vs. RHH in 18 career starts. Harper and Murphy can obviously mash righties, even if they’ve been struggling a bit of late, and they’re getting a nice positive park shift on the road in Milwaukee.
Astros @ Royals
In his last five starts Dallas Keuchel has 34 strikeouts and only three walks in 32.1 innings, which has led to a 2.37 xFIP in that stretch. Unfortunately, Keuchel’s ERA in those five starts is 4.18 because he has allowed five home runs (26.3% HR/FB) and has had difficulty stranding runners. But his ground ball rate in that stretch is 65.3 percent, which is much better than his already awesome 59.2 percent GB% on the season, and it gives hope that he should be keeping the ball in the yard with more success. His matchup with the Royals isn’t good as they rank 10th in wRC+ vs. LHP and have the fourth lowest strikeout rate against them. But Keuchel’s struggles make him a GPP-only play anyway, so it’s not as if the matchup is driving him from cash consideration. He’s nice and cheap on both sites, so he could return some value in a GPP.
Diamondbacks @ Rockies
This game being in Coors is obviously enough to put it in play, but add to the ball park the fact that the starters in this one are a guy making his third career start and a guy with a 4.83 ERA. Feel free to stack these teams if you like, but because of high ownership I always fade Coors in GPPs. But if you want to stack this one, you don’t need me to tell you how to do it.
Getting cash exposure to this game is important, however. The best way to do that with Arizona is Paul Goldschmidt, with Yasmany Tomas being an alternative if you can’t afford Goldy. Peter O’Brien is also nice and cheap on FD. As for Rox, Carlos Gonzalez is the guy I most prefer to spend on. Trevor Story is priced quite well on FD, so that could be a good way to get Colorado exposure there. And Nick Hundley is very good option at catcher.
Athletics @ Angels
Despite this game featuring very weak starters, it lacks obvious hitters to roster. Mike Trout is always an option of course, and feel free to roster him anywhere you can fit him in. He’s just not a must play. The best option in the game is probably Stephen Vogt with his 119 wRC+ vs. RHP between this year and last. He’s priced nicely on DK and makes for a good option there. A guy with power like Khris Davis is also a consideration against a fly ball pitcher like Jered Weaver, but Davis’ price tags aren’t too attractive.
Cardinals @ Mariners
Literally the only guy from this game that I highlighted on my sheet for consideration was Robinson Cano as a GPP option on DK. He has a 145 wRC+ vs. RHP between this year and last and is going well with a 148 wRC+ in the last 14. I could be mistaken, but it seems guys like Murphy, Travis, Segura and Kipnis could drive enough ownership at the position away from Cano to make him an acceptable GPP option.
Phillies @ Giants
This is another game with little to no options. Brandon Belt and Buster Posey could be GPP options against Zach Eflin making his third career start after posting a 10.80 ERA in his first two starts. But they’re quite pricey, and that ball park is never favorable to hitters.
Player Rankings
**Players are listed according to their FD positional eligibility
Catcher
- Derek Norris
- Russell Martin (better value on FD)
- Nick Hundley
- Welington Castillo (better value on DK)
- Stephen Vogt (better value on DK)
- Robinson Chirinos (GPP only)
First Base
- Paul Goldschmidt (better value on DK)
- David Ortiz (better value on FD)
- Wil Myers
- Edwin Encarnacion
- Joey Votto (better value on FD)
- John Jaso (better value on DK)
- Carlos Santana (GPP only, DK only)
Second Base
- Daniel Murphy
- Devon Travis
- Jean Segura (better value on FD)
- Jason Kipnis (DK only)
- Robinson Cano (DK only, GPP only)
- Scooter Gennett (GPP only)
- Adam Rosales
Third Base
- Josh Donaldson
- Nolan Arenado
- Alex Rodriguez
- Travis Shaw
- Yangervis Solarte
- Adrian Beltre (DK only, GPP only)
Shortstop
- Brad Miller (better value on FD)
- Troy Tulowitzki
- Trevor Story (FD only)
- Alexei Ramirez
- Carlos Correa (DK only)
- Francisco Lindor (GPP only, DK only)
Outfield
- Carlos Gonzalez (better value on FD)
- Matt Kemp
- Bryce Harper
- Mark Trumbo
- Jay Bruce
- Corey Dickerson (GPP only)
- Melvin Upton
- Yasmany Tomas (better value on DK)
- Jackie Bradley Jr. (better value on FD)
- Peter O’Brien (better value on FD)
- Gregory Polanco
- Joey Rickard
- Ian Desmond (GPP only, DK only)
Starting Pitcher
- Max Scherzer
- Masahiro Tanaka (better value on DK)
- Danny Salazar (GPP only, FD only)
- David Price (GPP only, DK only)
- Kyle Hendricks
- Dallas Keuchel
- Cody Reed (GPP only)
- Steven Matz (GPP only, DK only)
Research Chart
Download today’s research chart from this Google Sheet. Projections are derived from Fangraphs Depth Chart projections, which are cut down to a per-game basis and then adjusted for ball park and matchup. A glossary for the columns in the ‘hitter research’ tab is included below the chart.
SP Adj. – Projected FIP (based on ZiPS) of opposing pitcher against hitters of that handedness
BP Adj. – 2015 Fangraphs HR park factor for LHH or RHH
Pen Adj. – xFIP of opposing bullpen against hitters of that handedness
Last 7 – Hitter’s wRC+ in last seven days
Last 14 – Hitter’s wRC+ in last 14 days
L/R PA – Number of 2015-2016 plate appearances the hitter has against pitcher’s of the handedness they’ll be facing
L/R – Hitter’s 2015-2016 wRC+ against LHP or RHP
Additional projections and values are the same projections listed in the projection tabs.