Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best hitters to use for Tuesday’s 15-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Pitcher Rankings

After the jump we’ll take a look at each of my top 10 projected pitchers for the evening. My projections are derived from ZiPS projections which are cut down to a per-game basis and then adjusted for ball park and matchup.

1. Zack Greinke – DK: $11,900, FD: $10,300

Other big names like Carrasco, deGrom and Hamels, who we’ll address in turn, are quite a bit cheaper than Greinke on DK and a little bit cheaper on FD as well. And the projections that are embedded at the bottom of the post suggest Carrasco and deGrom are better values, but they both have really tough matchups. On the other hand, Greinke has an above average matchup against the Rays who have been roughly average v. RHP per wRC+, but they strike out a lot with the second highest K% vs. RHP. Greinke is probably a tad more affordable on FD, though the two-pitcher set up on DK allows for you to make up some savings on your SP2. He’s a fine play on either site and not someone that has to be avoided due to price. He’ll be in almost all my lineups tonight.

2. Carlos Carrasco – DK: $10,100, FD: $9,600

As mentioned, Carrasco is arguably a bit underpriced, but his matchup with Seattle is a tough one. The Mariners have the second highest wRC+ and sixth lowest K% vs. RHP and are the fifth worst matchup of the day according to my own little matchup stat. His strikeout rate is way, way down from where it has been the last two years, and that’s “backed up” by his swinging strike rate being down significantly as well. He can’t be trusted in cash with this matchup, and the upside might not be there for GPPs.

3. Jacob deGrom – DK: $9,500, FD: $9,800

DeGrom is very, very similar to Carrasco. He looks to be a bit under-priced but also might be a bit of a mirage. First off, his matchup with Pittsburgh is almost as bad as Carrasco’s as the Pirates have the fourth highest wRC+ and eighth lowest K% vs. RHP. My matchup stat actually has the matchup being slightly worse than Carrasco’s. And deGrom’s strikeout rate is also down significantly, though his swinging strike rate isn’t too far off where it has been in the past, so some sort of rebound could be coming in that department. But the matchup still makes him tough to stomach in cash and the lack of K’s hurts his GPP upside. If you like either Carrasco or deGrom, go deGrom on DK and Carrasco on FD.

4. Dallas Keuchel – DK: $5,800, FD: $7,700

Who would have thought you’d be able to roster a reigning Cy Young winner for just $5,800 on DK? Keuchel has been somewhat better recently with 17 strikeouts compared to two walks in his last three starts over 19 innings. But he’s still given up 12 earned runs in those three starts, so it’s obviously tough to buy back in on him. But at his price point on DK, he has to at least be considered. The Rangers are dead middle of the pack in WRC+ vs. LHP, but they strike out a little less than average and the ball park is hitter-friendly. All in all the matchup is below average, but it isn’t prohibitive. Fire away with Keuchel on DK but probably only in GPPs.

5. Cole Hamels – DK: $10,300, FD: $10,000

Hamels has some strikeout upside against the Astros who have the second highest K% vs. LHP, but that’s about the only thing to like about him. The matchup also presents risk as the Astros rank ninth in wRC+ vs. LHP. Plus, Hamels may well be pitching hurt as indicated by lower velocity and a significantly lower percentage of pitches thrown in the zone. Add in that the projections embedded below have him being over-priced on DK and FD, and there’s too much going against Hamels tonight. Pass.

6. Juan Nicasio – DK: $7,300, FD: $8,100

Pitchers Nicasio has a higher K% than: Greinke, Carrasco, deGrom. Admittedly, his advantage in that stat over that trio is small, and he definitely has the highest walk rate of the group. But with some strikeout potential and an xFIP of 4.10, Nicasio isn’t a bad option at all at his price point when he has a decent matchup. And a decent matchup he has today against the Mets who are only slightly above average v. RHP per wRC+, but they also have the fifth highest K% vs. RHP. Per my matchup stat Nicasio has the fifth best matchup of the day. He’s priced about right on FD and probably not someone you want to use on a one-pitcher site, but he’s a good SP2 option on DK.

7. Rick Porcello – DK: $8,000, FD: $8,200

Porcello is priced pretty sharply on both sites and has a bad matchup with the Giants who have the second lowest strikeout rate vs. RHP. He’s got decent strikeout and walk skills that could make him an option at the right price or in the right matchup, but both of those variables are wrong tonight.

8. Kyle Hendricks – DK: $10,800, FD: $8,500

Hendricks has been undeniably solid this year. His 2.84 ERA is probably a bit better than he deserves, but his 3.40 xFIP is plenty respectable. He also has what is essentially a league average strikeout rate and a walk rate that is much better than average. He also happens to manage contact quite well. All that said, he’s simply over-priced, especially on DK. He doesn’t have a big strikeout arm, and his opponent, the Phillies, only strikeout a tad bit more than average vs. RHP. To pay five figures on DK, I’d need more strikeout potential. He’s more affordable on FD, which is the place to use him if you like him.

9. Michael Pineda – DK: $6,000, FD: $7,500

For what it’s worth, Pineda has a better xFIP than any other pitcher discussed in this post. He also has the worst ERA, but still. He has the great xFIP because he is the 14th best out of 101 qualified starters in K-BB%, and he has the terrible ERA because he has the the 26th lowest soft contact rate allowed. That’s going to make him a boom or bust option all year long. If he misses lots of bats and gets a bit of luck on the few balls he allows to be put in play, he’s capable of a monster start. But if he doesn’t miss bats and/or doesn’t get a bit of good fortune, he could blow up on you. That upside and the price point he has sunk to will occasionally make him a good GPP option. However, today isn’t one of those days as he’ll face the Angels who have the lowest K% in the league vs. RHP.

10. Aaron Sanchez – DK: $10,500, FD: $9,000

Sanchez’s 2.99 ERA obviously means he’s having a nice season. But it has to give you pause that his strikeout rate is only slightly better than average while his walk rate is slightly worse than average. Of the 101 qualified starters he ranks only 50th in K-BB%. He manages contact better than most but not at an elite level, so it’s hard to find justification for a five figure price tag on DK, and he’s also over-priced on FD, though less so. His matchup with the Tigers is a tough one as they rank sixth in wRC+ vs. RHP, so pass on Sanchez tonight.

Hitting Options

Baltimore Orioles – Baltimore is tied for fourth in wRC+ vs. RHP and will face RHP Yordano Ventura this evening. Ventura has a 4.82 ERA, and his 5.68 xFIP indicates he’s been even worse than his ERA would lead you to believe. Ventura’s K% has fallen precipitously thanks to a big drop in his swinging strike rate all the way down to 6.8 percent. And always one to struggle with walks, his walk rate has jumped to an untenable 12.5 percent. Left-handed hitters are destroying him this season, though in the past he hasn’t shown much of a split, and he’s been plenty bad against right-handers this year as well.

Chris Davis is a great option with the platoon advantage against Ventura, and he’s priced well within reason. Manny Machado is always a good option, though he lacks value at his price point and may be better suited for O’s stacks. Hyun-Soo Kim is also a really nice value assuming he continues hitting in the second spot in the lineup, which is expected. Pedro Alvarez is another good value option if you need it.

Stack suggestion: Adam Jones (expected lineup slot: 1), Hyun-Soo Kim (2), Manny Machado (3), Chris Davis (4), Mark Trumbo (5)

Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers get LHP Sean Manaea tonight, who has allowed just four hits to the 32 lefties he has faced this year but a .393 wOBA to righties. The Brewers can go very righty-heavy with a lineup, so they’re a rough matchup for Manaea. And the game is in hitter-friendly Milwaukee, not out in Oakland. Ryan Braun, Chris Carter and Domingo Santana are all great options and well worth their price tags. Jonathan Villar and Jonathan Lucroy are also good options, though they’re priced very sharply on both sites.

Stack suggestion: Jonathan Villar (1), Ryan Braun (3), Jonathan Lucroy (4), Chris Carter (5), Domingo Santana (6)

St. Louis Cardinals – The Cards get John Lamb tonight who has a 5.58 ERA and a just-as-bad xFIP of 5.62. The left-handed Lamb has been even worse against lefties than he has against righties in his short career, which is always great for stacking purposes. The Cards will also be getting a positive park shift on the road. Matt Holliday is the best option on the team, though he’s priced much, much better on FD. Randal Grichuk makes for a nice value option as does Yadier Molina at his always shallow position. Jedd Gyorko is also nice salary relief on FD.

Stack suggestion: Matt Carpenter (1), Aledmys Diaz (2), Matt Holliday (3), Stephen Piscotty (4), Randal Grichuk (6)

Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto gets Matt Boyd who has xFIPs of 5.17 and 4.83 against left- and right-handed hitters respectively in his short career. He has been better this year than he was last, but he still has trouble limiting hard contact and keeping balls in the yard. The big boys at the top of the lineup are unsurprisingly the best options, and Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are nice values on DK, while Josh Donaldson is reasonably priced on both sites.

Stack suggestion: Jose Bautista (1), Josh Donaldson (2), Edwin Encarnacion (3), Michael Saunders (4)

Player Rankings

**Players are listed according to their FD positional eligibility

Catcher

1. Jonathan Lucroy
2. Brian McCann
3. Victor Martinez
4. Yasmani Grandal
5. Yadier Molina
6. Nick Hundley

First Base

1. Chris Davis
2. Chris Carter (great value on DK)
3. Paul Goldschmidt (better value on FD)
4. Edwin Encarnacion (better value on DK)
5. Anthony Rizzo

Second Base

1. Ben Zobrist
2. Devon Travis
3. Brian Dozier
4. Chase Utley (better value on FD)
5. Starlin Castro

Third Base

1. Josh Donaldson
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Pedro Alvarez (better value on FD)
4. Aaron Hill
5. Nolan Arenado

Shortstop

1. Trevor Story (much better value on FD)
2. Corey Seager
3. Jedd Gyorko (much better value on FD)
4. Manny Machado
5. Jonathan Villar

Outfield

1. Ryan Braun
2. Bryce Harper
3. Domingo Santana
4. Giancarlo Stanton
5. Adam Eaton
6. Hyun-Soo Kim
7. Matt Holliday (better value on FD)
8. Joc Pederson
9. Jason Heyward
10. Mallex Smith (better value on FD)

Starting Pitcher

1. Zack Greinke
2. Carlos Carrasco
3. Jacob deGrom (better value on DK)
4. Dallas Keuchel (DK only)
5. Juan Nicasio (better value on DK)
6. Kyle Hendricks (better value on FD)
7. Cole Hamels

Research Chart

Download today’s research chart from this Google Sheet.