Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best hitters to use for Wednesday’s 11-game evening slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Pitcher Rankings

After the jump we’ll take a look at each of my top 10 projected pitchers for the evening. My projections are derived from ZiPS projections which are cut down to a per-game basis and then adjusted for ball park and matchup.

1. Max Scherzer – DK: $13,300, FD: $11,200

Scherzer hasn’t been as good as he was last year, but last year will almost certainly end up being his career year. And aside from an increase in walk rate, he’s not doing much differently this year. His first pitch strike rate spiked sharply last year, and his zone percentage was the highest it has been in any full season, which led to a stellar 3.8 percent walk rate. He’s given back all the gains in first pitch strikes, but his zone percentage is a tick higher this year, so his 7.4 percent walk rate could get better. Other than that, he’s basically the same guy. His numbers this year are roughly the same as they were last year in the following stats: strikeout rate, swinging strike rate, BABIP, strand rate, all his batted ball rates, and velocity. Yeah, his 3.87 ERA is definitely coming down.

He’s got a solid matchup tonight with the White Sox who have the fourth lowest wRC+ vs. RHP and a middling strikeout rate. Scherzer is more affordable on FD, but he’s the best cash option on either site.

2. Madison Bumgarner – DK: $11,600, FD: $11,400

Bumgarner probably doesn’t deserve a sub-2.00 ERA this year, but he’s still be quite good. The problem today is that he has a brutal matchup with the Red Sox. Boston’s wRC+ vs. LHP is 134, which is higher than any other team against left- or right-handed pitching. His price is decent enough on DK that maybe you could use him in a GPP just because he’s capable of a good game even in a tough matchup, and his ownership should be low tonight. But that’s about the extent of his usage.

3. Noah Syndergaard – DK: $12,400, FD: $10,600

Everything just said about Bumgarner basically applies to Syndergaard. Thor’s matchup is slightly less bad and he’s been even better than Bumgarner has so far. But Syndergaard doesn’t have a site where his price tag is slightly appealing like MadBum’s is on DK. I also get the feeling Syndergaard will see more ownership than Bumgarner, which makes him slightly less enticing for GPPs.

4. David Price – DK: $9,400, FD: $10,400

If you just look at ERA, Price has not been nearly as good as Syndergaard and Bumgarer have been. But once you dig into the peripheral numbers a bit, you’ll see that Price has been nearly as good as Bumgarner from a skills stand point (Syndergaard has separated from the pack). Price’s xFIP and SIERA are basically the same as Bum’s, yet you can have Price for $2,200 less. The main difference between the two has been a near 20 percentage point gap in strand rate, and that gap has to narrow at some point.

Don’t go using Price in cash games. His matchup with the Giants is not a good one as they have the sixth highest wRC+ and second lowest K% vs. LHP. But he has enough strikeout potential on his own regardless of matchup (26.2% K%, 12.7% SwStr%), and his price tag is low enough that he could return nice value in a GPP. And he shouldn’t be highly owned.

5. Yu Darvish – DK: $11,000, FD: $9,600

There’s plenty of strikeout potential in Yu’s matchup with Houston as the Astros have the third highest K% vs. RHP. But Yu has not yet been allowed to throw 90 pitches since returning to the mound, which kills his potential usage in cash games. If you like him, FD GPPs are the place to use him.

6. Carlos Carrasco – DK: $10,300, FD: $9,500

Carrasco’s start was pushed back a day, and his price jumped a few hundred dollars for no apparent reason. He’s likely someone to avoid in a tough matchup with Seattle. The Mariners have the second highest wRC+ and sixth lowest K% vs. RHP and are the sixth worst matchup of the day according to my own little matchup stat. His strikeout rate is way, way down from where it has been the last two years, and that’s “backed up” by his swinging strike rate being down significantly as well. He can’t be trusted in cash with this matchup, and the upside might not be there for GPPs.

7. Kenta Maeda – DK: $7,500, FD: $8,200

According to the projections embedded at the bottom of this post, the price is right on Maeda. The problem is that his matchup is uninspiring. He’ll face the Rockies who are a bit better than average vs. RHP according to wRC+ (which does take into account park factors), and they have the fourth lowest K% vs. RHP. It’s also a bit concerning that Maeda’s xFIP is a shade over 4.00, though I do expect that to improve if his strikeout rate improves to a point more consistent with his solid swinging strike rate. At his price point it’s hard to argue against him too vehemently, but he’s just not blowing my proverbial skirt up.

8. James Shields – DK: $6,000, FD: $7,200

Shields is cheap, and his matchup with Washington is slightly better than average. But with an xFIP over 4.00, a move from San Diego to Petco, and the probability he’ll see Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper three times if he doesn’t get chased too early, he’s just too risky for my liking.

9. Wei-Yin Chen – DK: $7,900, FD: $7,900

Aside from Jesse Hahn, whose 5.09 SIERA precludes him from consideration today, Chen has the best matchup of the day by my calculation. He’ll face the Twins who have the sixth lowest wRC+ and fifth highest K% vs. LHP.  Chen himself is pretty damn average with an xFIP of 4.01 and a strikeout rate right near league average. But he keeps his walks down and averages six innings per start, so he’s a fairly reliable option.

10. Jaime Garcia – DK: $6,700, FD: $8,100

Garcia has a nice matchup today with the Reds who are a bit below average vs. LHP with a slightly higher-than-average strikeout rate. Garcia is priced quite nicely on DK where he makes sense as an SP2 option in cash or GPP. He’s only had one truly bad start out of 11 this season and the Cards are a big favorite, so he can be trusted in cash games. And he’s cheap enough with enough strikeout upside in his matchup that he could return good value in GPPs.

Hitting Options

Baltimore Orioles – The O’s rank fourth in wRC+ vs. RHP and eighth in home games. Tonight they’ll get Edinson Volquez at Camden. Between this year and last, Volquez has a 4.63 xFIP vs. LHH, so Chris Davis is an excellent option today while Hyun-Soo Kim remains an excellent value option. Pedro Alvarez is also a decent value option, partly because third base is quite thin this evening. Manny Machado, Adama Jones and Matt Wieters are options to fill in an O’s stack.

Stack suggestion: Adam Jones (expected lineup slot: 1), Hyun-Soo Kim (2), Manny Machado (3), Chris Davis (5)

Kansas City Royals – On the other side of that game, the Royals will face Chris Tillman who has made some improvements this year, mainly in the area of swinging strikes and strikeouts. But control and limiting hard contact have still been issues for Tillman this season. He’s been getting by so far on the best strand rate of his career.

Lefties have done more damage against Tillman this year, which makes Eric Hosmer a nice option, especially on FD. It also means guys like Reymnond Fuentes and Kendrys Morales are value options. But for his career Tillman has had almost no splits, so right-handed Royals would certainly work in a stack. Lorenzo Cain, Salvador Perez and Whit Merrifield are all options.

Stack suggestion: Whit Merrifield (2), Lorenzo Cain (3), Eric Hosmer (4), Salvador Perez (5), Kendrys Morales (6)

New York Yankees – The Yankees rank 25th in wRC+ vs. RHP, and they’ve let me down multiple times this season. But it’s very hard to ignore them at home against Jered Weaver. Weaver is rocking an ERA and xFIP both north of 5.00 with an xFIP closer to 6.00 on the road. He has been just as bad if not worse against righties than lefties, so any Yankees are in play. Lefties Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Brian McCann are the best options, but Alex Rodriguez is a good option as well. Chase Headley, Rob Refsnyder, Didi Gregorius and Starlin Castro all make for good value options. The middle infielders make plenty of sense today given the shallowness of their positions.

Stack suggestion: Jacoby Ellsbury (1), Brett Gardner (2), Alex Rodriguez (4), Brian McCann (5), Starlin Castro (6)

St. Louis Cardinals – The Cards are facing Alfredo Simon in Cincinnati. This doesn’t really need further explanation. Matt Carpenter is a fantastic option tonight, especially on FD where he’s very reasonably priced. Matt Holliday, Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk are also good options. Jedd Gyorko is a good salary relief option. The whole lineup is priced much better on FD than DK.

Stack suggestion: Matt Carpenter (1), Aledmys Diaz (2), Matt Holliday (3), Stephen Piscotty (4), Randal Grichuk (6)

Player Rankings

**Players are listed according to their FD positional eligibility

Catcher

1. Brian McCann
2. Stephen Vogt
3. Matt Wieters (better value on DK)
4. Salvador Perez (better value on FD)
5. Austin Barnes

First Base

1. Chris Davis
2. Eric Hosmer (better value on FD)
3. Chris Carter (better value on DK)
4. Kendrys Morales
5. Brandon Moss (better value on FD)

Second Base

1. Daniel Murphy
2. Rougned Odor (better value on FD)
3. Starlin Castro
4. Brian Dozier
5. Jurickson Profar

Third Base

1. Matt Carpenter (better value on FD)
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Pedro Alvarez
4. Chase Headley
5. Todd Frazier (better value on DK)

Shortstop

1. Manny Machado
2. Didi Gregorius
3. Jedd Gyorko (better value on FD)
4. Aledmys Diaz (better value on FD)
5. Carlos Correa (better value on DK)

Outfield

1. Bryce Harper
2. Jacoby Ellsbury
3. Brett Gardner
4. Hyun-Soo Kim
5. Matt Holliday (better value on FD)
6. Nomar Mazara
7. Randal Grichuk (better value on FD)
8. Reymond Fuentes (better value on FD)
9. Adam Eaton (better value on DK)
10. Domingo Santana (better value on FD)

Starting Pitcher

1. Max Scherzer (better value on FD)
2. David Price (better value on DK)
3. Madison Bumgarner (better value on DK)
4. Noah Syndergaard
5. Jaime Garcia (better value on DK)
6. Wei-Yin Chen
7. Kenta Maeda
8. Yu Darvish (better value on FD)

Research Chart

Download today’s research chart from this Google Sheet.