Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: WGC – Cadillac Championship
We are back this week for another look at Daily Fantasy PGA at DraftKings. Last week was a massacre (at least in a PGA DFS manner) as the weather played havoc for most of the tournament and we saw some of the best players in the world struggle and miss the cut. I did have runner up Daniel Berger among my choices along with Luke Donald and Paul Casey so all was not lost.
This week it looks like the weather should be solid with only a slight chance of rain on Saturday. Let’s see if I can help you out this week.
This week’s tournament is the World Golf Championships (WGC)-Cadillac Championship at Trump National Doral on the TPC Blue Monster course. It’s a Florida stop again this week.
It’s a great week to check out DraftKings as they have some top notch contests. Come on over and take a look.
Tour Stop
The tour stop this week is World Golf Championships (WGC)-Cadillac Championship played at Trump National Doral on the TPC Blue Monster course in Miami, Florida.
The course underwent a massive renovation prior to last year’s tournament bring a ton of water into play. The results? A winning score of four under par. The course was the third toughest overall on tour (include major venues) and they haven’t done anything to make it easier. The weather was tough last year (lots of wind played havoc) so if the weather is calmer, we might see a bit easier course, but not by a great margin.
The 7,528 yard, par 72 course has been the host since 2007, but with the major revamp last year we will have to take earlier course history with a grain of salt. As with the Honda, this course is a difficult one with a focus on premium players a must. You will likely need long hitters as this course is certainly a monster.
There are only four par fives on the course (with two at 600 yards or more), so scoring on par fours will be key this week. And with a lengthy course and so few par fives, we’ll need to pick out some big hitters.
Field
This is the best field you’ll see this year in a non-major. The entire top 50 of the OWGR will be there. Tiger Woods won’t be there because he’s not in the top 50 and even if he was, I’m not sure that he’d tee it up.
With such a top notch field, it’s splitting hairs a lot of times to pick and choose between the world’s best golfers.
We will have a number of European and Asian Tour players in the field as the tournament is made up of the top 50 in OWGR plus money leaders from other tours. The full field can be found here.
Also, thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.
Past Tournament Results
2014 Winner: Patrick Reed held off the Sunday charges of Bubba Watson and Jamie Donaldson to pick up the one stroke win. He returns to defend his title this year.
Here is the top 20 from last year’s tournament
Importantly, for us, this is another no-cut event so you might be more willing to take some chances with players who can score, but otherwise might struggle to make the cut.
DraftKings Expert Picks
The tough part with a field like this is you feel like you could recommend every player. However, the key for this tournament is identifying the international players who will put up solid numbers to go along with the Tour regulars.
Keegan Bradley | $7,900 – The Jupiter, Florida resident missed the cut last week at the Honda. His course history looks great with two top 10s in three starts. However, his performance last year gives me a bit of pause as he fell to a tie for 50th and didn’t have a round better than 74.
Paul Casey | $7,900 – Casey played his way into this tournament with his performance last week as he snuck into the bottom of the top 50 and get an invite. Casey hasn’t played here the last two times, but has three top 20s since 2007. You are banking on his current form as he’s got back to back top five performances after missing two cuts in a row.
Jason Day | $10,900 – Sign me up. Day didn’t play here last year and his course history isn’t the best (only one top 20 in three appearances). However, he’s got three top five finishes in four tournament appearances in 2015. He’s on fire and I’m not sure we’ll see this low a price on Day for the rest of the year.
Luke Donald | $7,400 – Donald finished in a tie for 25th here last year. That included a second round 82. His other three rounds were 70, 72 and 69 (in his final round). He’s rounding into form and has two top 10 finishes at the Monster since 2007 and he’s been in the top 26 every year except for 2013.
Jamie Donaldson | $7,100 – As noted on Twitter, Donaldson is one of my favorite golfers and I should have highlighted him last week. I’m not going to make the mistake again. Building on his solid outing at the Honda (solo sixth) and his tie for second here last year, Donaldson is primed for another top 10 finish.
Jason Dufner | $7,000 – Not so skinny Dufner tied for ninth here last year and has never been worse than 29th. Skinny Dufner looks like he can still play some golf. He played steady golf for all four rounds at the Honda and his back to back missed cuts are deep in the rear view mirror. His had two rounds over 75 last here last year and two rounds under 70. If he can maintain some consistency he’s got a great shot to do some damage this week.
Stephen Gallacher | $5,700 – Gallacher finished in a tie for sixth here on the more difficult version of the Blue Monster after finishing in a tie for 53rd the year before on the “easier” version. He picked up a tie for 41st at the Honda so he’s been in the States for a little bit and should be well acclimated. He missed the cut last year at the Honda prior to his tie for sixth.
Branden Grace | $6,800 – Grace sits 13th on the European Tour in driving distance. He doesn’t have the best course history in his three starts here with his best finish a tie for 35th three years ago. However, he’s got two wins in 2015 and three wins in his last six tournaments shooting him up the world rankings.
J.B Holmes | $6,900 – Holmes is the mad bomber off the tee with distance his calling card and accuracy his nemesis. His lack of accuracy won’t be penalized as much on this course as they did widen the fairways in the course revamp. He hasn’t played here since 2010 so there isn’t much history to go on, but he’s on form with three straight top 25 finishes.
Dustin Johnson | $11,300 – DJ missed the cut last week, but his course history portended some chance of disaster. Johnson is tops in driving distance this year and was second in 2014 so his bombing tendencies will give him a shot. He’s got three top 15 finishes in his six appearances and put up a tie for fourth on the revamped track last year. I would have liked to see his price drop a bit further, but he’s a star player
Brooks Koepka | $8,300 – What Koepka did on Friday (shoot a 64) after his disastrous Thursday (78) round at the Honda was the stuff of legend. He limped home on the weekend, but I’d trust this kid on any course. He’s got the length to take advantage of the par 4s here.
Sergio Garcia |$8,900 – Sergio has seven top 10 finishes in this 14 trips here, but only two of them since 2007 including a tie for third in 2013. He’s been playing well enough to be around the leaderboard the last couple of weeks, but hasn’t fully capitalized. His price is just above average so he could make a solid play with some top 10 upside.
Anirban Lahiri | $5,700 – The 27 year-old Lahiri is making is PGA Tour debut. He’s finished in the top 10 on the Asian Tour Order of Merit for the last three years in a row. He’s won twice already on the season at the Maybank Malaysian Open and Hero Indian Open. He’s also an associate member of the BMGC crew (see below) as he finished fourth in 2009 at the Black Mountain Masters.
Shane Lowry | $6,300 – The Irishman hasn’t missed a cut since missing back to back ones at the U.S. Open and Irish Open over the summer last year. He’s been on a tear since mid-2014 and is a solid low dollar option who has never teed it up here. He’s coming off a tie for 21st at Pebble Beach in his last start.
Joost Luiten | $5,700 – Luiten’s only appearance here was last year and he picked up a tie for 13th. He showed well last week at the Honda no round worse than a 71 and closing on the weekend with back to back 69s. Just think what he could do in good weather! Also, I assume his name rhymes with Juice Newton, but what do I know.
Hunter Mahan | $6,600 – Mahan has two top 10s in his last four stops at the Blue Monster including a tie for ninth last year even as he stumbled on Sunday to a 76. However, he hasn’t missed a cut yet in six starts this year and is coming in off a tie for 20th at the NTO.
Graeme McDowell | $7,800 – McDowell disappointed golfers everywhere last week as he missed the cut by one shot. He’s back to a course where he’s finished in the top 15 each of his last three appearances and may not be at the top of DFS players’ minds after his missed cut this past week.
Rory McIlroy | $15,300 – He can’t miss two cuts in a row can he? He was heavily owned in all formats last week and sunk a lot of ships on Friday as he flailed around the course. McIlroy is too good to struggle for long and I think he gets going here. That said, his price is sky high still and I’d rather spend my money elsewhere.
Phil Mickelson | $9,000 – Did Lefty show you enough last week to put him in your lineup? Perhaps. He played good golf for three rounds until fading on Sunday to a 73 and a tie for 17th. It seems that the putting is coming around for him and he performed well here last year with a tie for 16th after a tie for third in 2013. His price is down a bit so he’s got some value for this week.
Ryan Moore | $6,400 – Moore has never finished better than 22nd (in his first trip here in 2011) and finished tied for 25th last year. However, that 25th place finish included a Friday 79. Had he matched his Sunday 75 on that Friday he would have tied for sixth. Moore took last week off, but he is coming off a tie for 22nd at the Northern Trust.
Patrick Reed | $10,700 – I generally like to cover the defending champ each week and Reed is that this week. He marched onto the Blue Monster and conquered it in his first appearance at the tourney. He started off hot at the Honda with back to back 67s, but faded down the stretch though he still pulled in a top 10 finish.
Adam Scott | $11,000 – Scott has a good course history with three top 10s since 2007. He put up a tie for 25th last year on the revamped track. This is Scott’s first start of 2015 so I’m a bit wary to put him out there at such a high price. I’ll likely look elsewhere when searching for a premium player.
John Senden| $5,900 – Senden’s record here is immaculate with his lowest finished a tie for 20th in2014. He did not tee it up here last year so there is some concern that he hasn’t seen the new and improved Blue Monster. He’s also not playing too well right now coming off a missed cut at the NTO and a tie for 49th at the Farmers.
Charl Schwartzel | $6,800 – I’m going to have a tough time passing up Charl at such a low price. His average finish in his eight trips to the Blue Monster is 18.6. He’s got three top 10 finishes in his last five starts here with a tie for ninth last year included. However, Charl isn’t in top form as he missed two cuts in his last three starts including last week at the Honda where he fired a 79-74 to miss out on the weekend.
Henrik Stenson | $9,500 – After a three year layoff, Stenson came back to Doral and fired a four over to end up in a tie for 16 th including a final round 69. Stenson is a good driver of the ball (currently 22 nd in driving distance on the European Tour and 11 th in 2014). He sits third in OWGR and has back to back ties for 13 th after missing the cut at Abu Dhabi (his first start of 2015). He closed out 2014 with four top three finishes in his last five tourneys.
Robert Streb | $6,500 – Streb makes his first trek to Doral and his form is not optimal as he missed the cut at the NTO and tied for 59th last week. However, his ranking in a few key categories (tie for second in par 4 performance, sixth in par 4 birdie or better and tie for sixth in par 4 scoring average) puts him on the radar for me in his debut here.
Bubba Watson | $12,400 – Watson fell one shot short of forcing a playoff last year as he charged up the leaderboard with a Sunday round of 68. He picked up another second place finish in 2012 here as well to bookend three top 20 finishes in the last three years at the Blue Monster. He’s a bomber of the highest order and should see his length give him a great advantage.
Danny Willet | $6,100 – It is Willet’s first trip here and he withdrew with a bad back from his last tournament appearance. He leads the Race to Dubai Rankings on the European Tour so some many see him as a sneaky start this week. I’ll pass.
Gary Woodland | $6,300 – Last we saw Woodland he stumbled out of the Northern Trust on Friday. He took last week off and so he comes in under the radar. However, he did put up a top 20 finish here last year and that included a disastrous 78 on Saturday. He’s a sneaky play this week as he can hit the ball out of any park.
The Black Mountain Golf Course Crew
This week, we have a special section devoted to players who I have identified based on their success on a course in Thailand. Really. I know it’s crazy, but I will go to the ends of the earth to mine for any advantage. That’s why I’ve put them in their own little group as the connection to this tournament is a bit tenuous.
As I was researching current form for some of the players who I wasn’t familiar with in this week’s field, I stumbled onto the True Thailand Classic that was played a couple of weeks ago in Thailand. It was a tournament played on the Black Mountain G.C. a par 72, 7,343 yard course established in 2007.
Perhaps most importantly, the course has bermudagrass for its greens. And the leaderboard at that tourney (and the couple of Asian Tour tourneys played there – the Black Mountain Masters – in 2009 and 2010) gave me some names of players who could succeed at the Blue Monster.
Sadly, Miguel Angel has withdrawn from the field. We are all worse off because of it. Miguel Angel Jimenez | $6,500 – Jimenez is perhaps the most entertaining player on any tour. He seems to enjoy himself wherever he goes. He also has played quite well iln the early going this season as he has two top 20s in 2015 including a tie for seventh at the True Thailand Classic.
Thomas Bjorn | $5,700 – Bjorn has struggled so far this year and hasn’t had a top 10 finish since his tie for fourth at the Made in Denmark tournament (a home country tourney for him). He missed the cut last week at the Honda, but he has some success on the Black Mountain Course with a tie for 25th at the True Thailand Classic a couple of weeks ago. Perhaps a similar course will allow him to find his form.
Mikko Ilonen | $5,600 – Ilonen is one of the STAR SPOKESMAN for the Black Mountain Golf Course. He is the highest rated Finnish golfer in the world. He has struggled so far this year and to close out 2014 so he’s only an option if you believe his association with a similar course gives him some advantage as he’s never had success in a tournament there.
Thongchai Jaidee | $5,900 – Jaidee has been here eight times, but only three of those trips have been since 2007. He did pick up his second top 10 finish last year with a tie for sixth. Moreover, he’s coming of a tie for second at the True Thailand Classic two weeks ago and finished in the top 10 in the Black Mountain Masters in 2009 and 2010.
Alex Noren | $5,700 – The Swinging Swede sits at 158th in the world rankings, but that’s up from 653 rd at the end of 2014. His meteoric rise back up the rankings is based on health (wrist surgery in mid-2013) and stellar play recently. He has three top 15 finishes (including a tie for 11th at the True Thailand) in his five 2015 starts. He also finished in a tie for eighth in the Black Mountain Masters in 2010. And he played well at the 2010 Royal Trophy (a team golf event between Asian and European Teams) which was held at the Amata Spring Country Club also in Thailand and also with bermudagrass greens.
Marc Warren | $5,800 – Since missing the cut in Abu Dhabi, Warren hasn’t been outside of the top 25 in any of his next four appearances including two top 10s. He’s coming off a tie for 25th at the True Thailand Classic and closed the tournament out with a final round 67 (low round for the day) to move up 27 spots on the last day. He’s never played this course previously, but he’s in good form.
Good luck this week! Head over to DraftKings to choose your squad for this week.
DraftKings Scoring
Roster size: 6 Golfers
POINT SCORING
Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:
- Per Hole Scoring
- Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
- Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
- Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
- Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
- Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
- Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Tournament Finish Scoring
- 1st: 30 PTs
- 2nd: 20 PTs
- 3rd: 18 PTs
- 4th: 16 PTs
- 5th: 14 PTs
- 6th: 12 PTs
- 7th: 10 PTs
- 8th: 9 PTs
- 9th: 8 PTs
- 10th: 7 PTs
- 11th–15th: 6 PTs
- 16th–20th: 5 PTs
- 21st–25th: 4 PTs
- 26th–30th: 3 PTs
- 31st–40th: 2 PTs
- 41st-50th: 1 PTs
- Streaks and Bonuses
- Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
- Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
- All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
- Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs
Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.
Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.
Full rules are located here for DraftKings golf.
1 Comment
I was taking this article seriously until you asked if rory could miss 2 cuts in a row. NOBODY gets cut in this weeks tournament!