It’s certainly been awhile since we saw an edition of the plate discipline series. As John Lennon said, life is what happens to you while you’re busy making other plans. It was a longer break for me and just in time as the sport comes to its predetermined halfway point. Regression is just beginning to take hold for some folks and these numbers will become more and more predictive.

As we have seen at the other positions, there are a number of indicators that we look at to predict when a player will have a hot streak or a cold streak and we are going to highlight some of those cases here. Perhaps when everyone is taking a collective breather at the all-star break everyone can do some roster adjustments to take advantage of these obvious trends.

Jacoby Ellsbury– Boston Red Sox

The impending free agent has been quietly performing for several weeks now and has his numbers back to where most people expected them to be. His average is back above .300 and he is getting on base at a normal clip. The biggest thing is that he has amassed over 30 stolen bases without a lot of fanfare.

The big difference for fantasy owners is the 32 home runs he hit in 2011. He hasn’t come close to that power production since and probably won’t. Fantasy owners expecting the five category magic won’t get that, but he is back to being a top notch speed threat and run scoring threat.

Shin Shoo Choo– Cincinnati Reds

For a guy that has such a spectacular OBP, there are signs of trouble on the horizon. When you look at a player’s swing rate on balls and then look at the fairly pedestrian contact rate you have to be concerned. The Reds have Billy Hamilton waiting in the wings, so it is very unlikely that they are going to break the bank to bring him back into the fold.

As for the fantasy owner, you should be a little wary of moving forward with Shin Shoo Choo. This is especially true if you are thinking of trading for him. Choo owners have enjoyed a very productive first half and he will be productive overall, but the second half will not be as magical as the first half.

Aaron Hicks– Minnesota Twins

Young players are so unpredictable because sample size comes into play. Normally, teams are reluctant to give young players a very long leash and the Twins are no different. They gave up on Hicks after most teams would, but given the numbers above they probably did so too soon. He’s not fishing too often at balls out of the zone and his contact rate is okay.

A .237 BABIP is killing him and if that number was more normal he would likely still be the regular centerfielder in Minnesota. To their credit, they still haven’t sent him down, but they should be playing him everyday and dealing with the growing pains. The numbers above show he is on the right track.

B.J. Upton– Atlanta Braves

Upton is bad and there is no way of getting around that. The basic numbers are as plain as day. However, the numbers above do not match the numbers every fantasy owner looked at when they decided to drop him. His walk rate is very good in comparison with most of the guys on the list and the strikeout to walk ratio is only slightly below average.

Long term, the issue is simply an issue of contact. He doesn’t swing at a ton of balls, so he is swinging and missing at balls in the zone. That’s worrisome for any player moving forward. Supposedly, he has been making adjustments throughout the season, so it will be interesting to see where these numbers are at the end of the season.

Adam Jones– Baltimore Orioles

Jones is one of those players where you feel like he should be a superstar and he never gets quite there. He is on pace to hit 30+ home runs and drive in 100 runs, but something is missing. The above numbers is probably a very good indicator of what is missing. His walk rate is by far the lowest among regular center fielders in baseball.

Low walk rates by themselves aren’t death, but when you have a healthy strikeout rate (nearly 20 percent) it becomes a serious issue. That one stat (strikeout to walk ratio) is the biggest indicator of why Jones will not take that next step into super stardom.

Carlos Gomez– Milwaukee Brewers

Gomez is one of those players that fantasy owners should either put on the block or avoid if someone is offering him. It isn’t that Gomez is a bad player, but he is playing above his head and will likely regress into the player everyone thought he would be. By the end of the season, he will likely end up hitting in the .260-.270 range with more than 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases.

Those are really good numbers. He will likely have 20 stolen bases at the all-star break and perhaps even 15 home runs. That tells you what you might expect in the second half. I wouldn’t expect much personally as that .375 BABIP has to come back to the pack.