Wednesday we are back on the DFS MLB grind for you. I’ll be talking MLB today and then Logan will get you to the weekend. I was excited about today until I realized I had a dentist appointment. Ugh. Well, at least we have day games to watch today! There are 15 total, so make sure you know which slate you’re getting into.
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SD/CIN – Rain 80-90%
BOS/MIN – Wind blowing out to RF at 11mph
Johnny Cueto was my top pitcher of the day until I saw the weather that was going to be in Cincinnati. If for some reason it clears up, you have to go with Cueto as number one. He has huge strikeout potential and has both sides of the plate hitting in the .100s. With the Reds game likely not getting in, Masahiro Tanaka takes over as my top pitcher play. He faces the Reds who were electric last night, but that was against subpar pitching. Tonight Tanaka faces a team that has struck out at a 28% rate against RHP this season.
Garrett Richards has been keep three and four hitters off their game this season, holding them to a 3 for 35 average this season. With the Phillies having a ton of LHB in their lineup, it’s important to note that Richards has dominated them this season. LHB are hitting .168 against him right now. Rafael Montero is a great GPP play for me tonight pitching at home. He makes his debut tonight against the Yankees after pitching well in AAA. He has had a mid 3 or better ERA since 2013 in AAA with a FIP of just a tad worse.
The best value play on the day is Tommy Milone. He gets to pitch at home where his splits have always favored him and does so against the White Sox. This Chicago team just got blanked in nine innings last night against David Price.
Others to Consider: AJ Burnett, Madison Bumgarner
Miguel Montero is a great play today against Doug Fister. Fister struggled in start one and could do that again. If so, Montero should have a huge night. The guy continues to hit as he had an RBI single yesterday against Strasburg and is hitting .306 in his last 15 days. Brian McCann had a huge day at the plate yesterday against the Mets. He’ll shift to Citi Field tonight, but power is power. McCann has it and if you like that matchup against the rookie then hop on him and his 5k price.
Alex Avila at a mid 3k price is hard to beat against a RHP. He’ll face a young one today and although Avila won’t have huge upside, his potential is still solid. I like him today if you’re trying to punt. Tyler Flowers is an option tonight whether you like Milone or not. He’s going to cost you just 3k and had the LHP matchup that we all search for with our punts. He has struggled recently, but has good numbers against southpaws this season.
Others to Consider: John Jaso, Ryan Hanigan
Brandon Moss had himself a big game last night with two home runs against the White Sox. He gets another RHP and therefore gets himself another great play. After a huge night on Monday, he has earned himself top play at this position today. Paul Goldschmidt is going to be salivating if Fister doesn’t bring his “A” game today. Goldy had two doubles against Strasburg last night, so he’s seeing the ball well. If Fister isn’t getting the movement on his two seamer then there will be plenty of pitches left down the middle.
Adrian Gonzalez has struggled recently, but tonight is a nice buy low day for him. Even then, he did have a single in the game against a Marlins, so he’s not a lost cause. He gets a rookie RHP that shouldn’t be able to beat Gonzalez as long as he’s feeling better tonight. Matt Adams is in play tonight against the RHP. Hammel uses his slider well and as Josh Kay would tell us, Adams does well against the slider. His price is stupid low making him the best value amongst first basemen.
Others to Consider: Prince Fielder, Ike Davis
Daniel Murphy is the one Mets player I would go and get against Tanaka tonight. He’s stupid hot right now hitting .375 in his last 15 days including three HRs and three stolen bases. Tanaka has struggled in the first inning or two so far so hopefully Murphy can jump on him then if you roll him. Brandon Phillips is in that likely rain game, but if he plays I like him. His price is super manageable at under 5k and he’s been great lately. He’s hitting .341 in his last 15 days and gets an average matchup tonight against Ian Kennedy.
Neil Walker is coming off a home run last night and I think he could do it again tonight. He has seven HRs and 12 of 14 extra base hits overall from the left side. He’ll be hitting from that side tonight and has two home runs in 15 at bats at Miller Park so far this season.
Others to Consider: Aaron Hil, Jeff Baker
Yangervis Solarte has been on a tear this season and recently as well. He’s hitting .395 in his last 15 games and had himself a home run last night. If you’re not a fan of Montero tonight then Solarte has to be part of a reason why. Kyle Seager has been solid since coming back from illness. He’s 3 for 12 since with a HR and three RBI. He gets Odorizzi tonight who has struggled mightily this season away from Tropicana.
If you can’t tell by now, my game plan in a lot of my games is to pick on Doug Fister. It continues with mid-range play Eric Chavez. He’s hitting .364 in his last 15 days and gets that RHP/LHB matchup we all like today. Manny Machado is only 4k on Draftstreet?! He’s a great play as a buy low guy even going up against Justin Verlander. RHB have hit him better in his career, so this doesn’t scare me that much going into today’s early game.
Others to Consider: Chris Johnson, Eduardo Nunez
Troy Tulowitzki is decent tonight I guess? He faces the LHP, Jason Vargas, tonight in a game that I think will be high scoring. Besides Tulowitzki, shortstop is really thin for higher priced guys. I think I’ll skip and go down to Eduardo Escobar. Josh Kay really likes him going into today for value, so I have to trust him. He’s a switch hitter that has a .381 average in his last 15 games.
Danny Santana is another Twins value player that could see the field with Escobar at the same tonight against Doubront. If he does, you’re picking another .381 hitter recently against a weak LHP.
Others to Consider: Chris Owings, Jean Segura
Michael Brantley is extremely high priced today, but should be worth it. He’s crushing the ball recently with a .327 average in his last 15 days. He’s added three HRs and 11 RBI during that time. He gets to face Dustin McGowan who has been terrible on the road this season. Yasiel Puig is white hot right now and there’s really no need to explain the pick. He’s been great with a .423 average recently with four HRs. Also, the pitcher starting for Miami tonight was considered a future reliever for the Marlins, so he must throw a ton of sliders. For those that don’t know, Puig crushes sliders.
I think the Rockies score some runs today even away from Colorado and Drew Stubbs should be a part of that. He’s hitting LHP well so far this season and has two HRs in his last 15 days. He’s a solid mid-range play to get you some of that Rockies action. Denard Span is a cash game play for me today and that’s it. McCarthy gives up hits (7 hits or more in 6 of his 8 starts), so Span should see some chances to get on base and run, but his upside is limited with the way the Nationals are hitting right now.
David DeJesus is crushing the ball right now and even has three HRs recently. He faces Maurer who has had recent success on first pitch swingers. Luckily for us, DeJesus isn’t one of those guys and should be able to capitalize on this.
Whoever is leading off for the Indians today I like. Whether it be Nyjer Morgan or Michael Bourn, those are two solid options. I think McGowan is going to be hit around a bit and some of these outfielders will be doing the damage.
Others to Consider: James Jones, Jose Bautista, Melky Cabrera
Today is a day that you can fit three starting pitchers pretty easily. If you want to grab some of these big hitters mentioned then you’ll have to grab a closer. Otherwise, fit two of the best pitcher options on the board and then throw a guy like Tommy Milone in to finish it.