2014 Fantasy Baseball: Rotters and Sleepers — Center Field
Sleepers come in all shapes and sizes and that can be seen more acutely in center field. Some leagues don’t differentiate between outfield positions, but enough leagues do that it makes sense to look at each position individually. Ironically, the players we are profiling today arguably had better seasons than they had in the past, but people are still overlooking them on draft day, so they are still technically sleeper candidates.
Denard Span was a prominent name last offseason after he was dealt to the Nationals. The irony is that when you look at his basic numbers, you see that he was arguably better than he had been in Minnesota. Yet, because the Nationals did not return to the playoffs last season, he got lopped in with the rest of the bunch and seen as an underachiever. It should be noted that players should always be judged on past performance as compared to some artificial mark that some people seem to think they are capable of.
AVG |
HR |
R |
RBI |
SB |
|
2011 |
.264 |
2 |
37 |
16 |
6 |
2012 |
.283 |
4 |
71 |
41 |
17 |
2013 |
.279 |
4 |
75 |
47 |
20 |
Denard Span fans keep waiting for the 2009 Span to return. With each passing season it becomes increasingly less likely that that Span will return. That Span hit .311, enjoyed good health, and had an OPS around .800. Those days are gone. Sometimes we just have to accept the player for who he is and what he can do for our team. When healthy, Span can steal up to 25 bases and score close to 90 runs. While that might not blow your skirt up for your starting center fielding slot, it might serve you well in a backup capacity.
When you look at Span’s plate discipline and batted ball numbers, you’ll see that there is a whole lot to like. The difference is that there doesn’t seem to be a lot of room for improvement. That’s because he is not a traditional sleeper. He is a guy that people are overlooking on draft day. That kind of consistency and predictability is comforting for a bench guy.
SO% |
BB% |
Oswing |
Contact |
BABIP |
|
2011 |
11.6 |
8.7 |
21.0 |
91.0 |
.297 |
2012 |
10.9 |
8.3 |
22.6 |
92.7 |
.315 |
2013 |
11.6 |
6.3 |
27.5 |
91.7 |
.311 |
Denard Span’s contact rates are elite. The big league average is around 80 percent. Very few guys get north of 90 and they usually don’t do that on a regular basis. The only negative is that we saw his swing rate go up a little on balls outside the zone, but that could be attributed to seeing National League pitchers for the first time (on a regular basis). It is likely that the Oswing rate will go down towards the 25 percent barrier this season. That is also well above the league average.
As you might surmise, the news on Span is not all good. If he had any power he would be an elite offensive player, but he is one of those guys that is going to hit far more singles than anything else. Unfortunately, when you see someone that doesn’t hit for power then you have far less room for error. It also means that when you lose your speed you essentially lose everything.
LD% |
GB% |
FB% |
HR/FB |
ISO |
|
2011 |
20.7 |
52.8 |
26.4 |
3.1 |
.095 |
2012 |
21.3 |
54.4 |
24.3 |
3.7 |
.112 |
2013 |
23.0 |
54.2 |
22.8 |
3.4 |
.102 |
There is a scene in Major League where the manager tells Willie Mays Hayes that he must do 20 pushups every time he hits the ball in the air. You get the impression that Denard Span went through that exercise a long time ago. He seems to hit more line drives and fewer fly balls with each passing year. If you had a home run rate like that you would try to do the same thing. God bless a player that is born with this much self-awareness. It’s hard to survive in this game without an elite skill, but Span seems to pull it off. If he can keep in the lineup he might even be able to offer you enough steals to make it worth your while.
Michael Saunders comes from the other side of the tracks. He has some elite skills, but he has never quite put them all together. It isn’t hard to understand why many fantasy players have avoided him over the years. He seemed to be keeping the seat warm while Frankly Gutierrez recovered from his many injuries and ailments. It seems as though the Mariners have finally given up on Gutierrez, so it’s time to give Saunders a longer look.
AVG |
HR |
Runs |
RBI |
SB |
|
2011 |
.149 |
2 |
16 |
8 |
6 |
2012 |
.247 |
19 |
71 |
57 |
21 |
2013 |
.236 |
12 |
59 |
46 |
13 |
I can think of no better microcosm for the Seattle Mariners than Michael Saunders. He began as a replacement for a plan that went awry. Then, he began to show some promise, so they formulated a new plan to include him in center field. Then, that promise seemed to vanish before it ever really began. Still, it’s important to differentiate between a good plan that goes off the tracks and a plan that is doomed from the start.
In order to do that we have to look at the plate discipline numbers and batted ball statistics to see if Saunders deserved his fate last season. In most of the cases we have evaluated, the hitter simply suffered from some bad luck. Bad luck happens and it isn’t everyone’s fault. It does become your fault if make hasty decisions based on it.
SO% |
BB% |
Oswing |
Contact |
BABIP |
|
2011 |
31.3 |
6.7 |
27.9 |
74.2 |
.212 |
2012 |
23.9 |
7.8 |
30.2 |
76.3 |
.297 |
2013 |
25.2 |
11.5 |
23.2 |
75.6 |
.298 |
The strikeout rates and contact rates are somewhat troubling (20 percent and 80 percent are the league averages), but his swing rate on balls outside the zone is very promising. It appears he is just one of those guys that swings and misses a lot. Still, his walk rate went above the league average and if those swings and misses come with power potential then he still might be worth a bench slot.
LD% |
GB% |
FB% |
HR/FB |
ISO |
|
2011 |
14.9 |
35.6 |
49.5 |
4.0 |
.068 |
2012 |
20.2 |
45.2 |
34.6 |
15.0 |
.185 |
2013 |
22.0 |
40.9 |
37.1 |
11.3 |
.160 |
It appears as if the power potential is there. If that is the case then he definitely has the ability to hit north of 20 home runs. If you add in the stolen bases then you can overcome a lower batting average. I wouldn’t make Saunders a starting outfielder in any league, but I definitely would consider him for a bench slot.