2014 Fantasy BaseballFantasy Baseball

2014 Fantasy Baseball: Week 14 Roundup

Photo credit: Harold Neal
Photo credit: Harold Neal

With the 2014 season officially more halfway done, it’s time to start making moves for the stretch run. There has been a plethora of call-ups lately, like Mookie Betts, Andrew Heaney, Gregory Polanco, Oscar Taveras, George Springer, Jon Singleton, and C.J. Cron just to name a few. The point is there is always value waiting to be had, you just have to make sure you pay extra attention to make the adds before your fellow competitors. Besides improving your team by picking up prospects like the one listed above, many owners have also been waiting for star players with injuries to return to their squads to put them over the top. Your fantasy team may be struggling right now, but with some luck and stud players returning for the race to the finish line, there is always hope. With one of the biggest names in baseball making his return from the disabled list this week, it’s time to take a look at what is happening around Major League Baseball in the Week 14 Roundup.

Harper Returns to Nats

After a little more than two months spent on the disabled list due to a torn ligament in his left thumb, Bryce Harper made his long-awaited return to the Washington Nationals lineup on Monday. The 21-year-old made an instant impact as he went 1-3 with a RBI single and run. Prior to landing on the DL, Harper hit .289 with a homer, nine RBI, seven runs, and a steal over 23 games. Not exactly numbers worthy of a first or second round pick, but it’s a small sample size obviously.

Compared to last season though, Harper’s strikeout rate (24.3%) is up, while his walk rate (8.7%) and ISO (.128) are down. It’s surprising that he only has one homer considering the power he possesses, but his 4.8% HR/FB ratio certainly pales in comparison to his 18.0% mark he posted in 2013. Much of his batted ball profile remains very similar to his 2013 stats though and it’s important to remember many of these rates haven’t stabilized yet due to a lack of games played. On a positive note, after hitting only .214 in 131 at-bats against left-handers last year, Harper is 12-29 (.414) against southpaws this year.

It’s obviously time to get Harper back into all lineups and fantasy owners who have waited for his return should be rewarded for their patience. Harper has all the tools to be a top-30 fantasy asset down the stretch and owners just have to hope he can stay healthy from here on out. He obviously hasn’t lived up to the sky high expectations owners envisioned before the 2014 season started, but there’s no reason he can’t be that guy down the stretch.

Mookie Time

After winning the World Series while fielding a powerhouse offense last season, it was easy to assume that the Boston Red Sox wouldn’t have much trouble putting up runs this year either. Through 85 games this year though, the Red Sox rank 26th in runs per game (3.78). A struggling offense is the main reason why the team summoned up top prospect Mookie Betts from Triple-A last Saturday. The 21-year-old absolutely mashed during his Double-A Portland and Triple-A Pawtucket stints as he hit .345/.437/.520 with eight homers, 48 RBI, and 29 steals.

In his MLB debut on Sunday, Betts was slotted into the eight hole and he went 1-3 with a run scored. After a couple 0-fers the last two games, Betts broke out on Wednesday night by launching his first career homer as he went 2-5 with two runs and two RBI. Although he doesn’t project to hit many homers, projecting 6-8 homers the rest of the way isn’t an unreasonable expectation. You aren’t picking up Betts for his power though, his average and speed will be his biggest assets.

Betts displayed a keen eye at the plate during his time in the minors this year as evidenced by his 14.4% walk rate, and he also had an acceptable 10.1% strikeout rate. No one should be expecting Betts to hit .300+ right out of the gate as a rookie, but he possesses massive upside. Assuming he gets regular playing time the rest of the way, which is likely, I predict Betts will hit .282 with seven homers, 33 RBI, 40 runs, and 13 steals from here on out. His value is depressed somewhat if he continues to hit eighth, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him rise up the lineup for the floundering Red Sox. If so, his value would obviously rise due to more at-bats and possible run/RBI chances. He’s available in 60% of Y! leagues. Make the add if you haven’t already.

Jose, Jose, Jose, Jose

By going 1-3 on Wednesday night, Jose Abreu extended his hitting streak to a career-high 17 games. During that time, Abreu has raised his average from .265 to .280 to go along with seven homers, 16 RBI, and 11 runs. The 27-year-old Cuban rookie has 26 homers in his first 70 games, a first in MLB history. Just think how great his numbers would look if he didn’t have to miss 14 games due to an ankle injury.

For the season, Abreu is hitting .280/.331/.624 with 26 homers, 67 RBI, and 45 runs. These fabulous numbers have led to Abreu being the 13th ranked player in Y!. With RISP, Abreu is 20-67 (.299) with eight of his homers coming in those situations. His batted ball profile below yields all sorts of crazy numbers.

Stat/Year

BB%

K%

ISO

LD%

GB%

HR/FB

O-Swing

WAR

SwStr%

2014

6.2%

24.0%

.344

20.9%

44.1%

35.1%

42.1%

2.7

15.1%

Abreu’s .344 ISO and 35.1% HR/FB ratio are both easily best in MLB. In fact, the next closest playerw in HR/FB ratio are Nelson Cruz, Springer, and Giancarlo Stanton at 23.9%. His 2.7 WAR ranks 25th as well. Abreu does have trouble making contact as you can see by his 24.0% strikeout rate, which rates as a rather poor figure. Additionally, Abreu isn’t helping his OBP with his lack of walks and he could stand to improve in that area. The league average line drive rate is 20% while the league average for groundball rate is 44% and Abreu is right there for both categories.

It would seem to be a great idea for pitchers to avoid throwing Abreu a bevy of fastballs, as he rates 13.6 runs above average against that pitch. Avoiding giving up a homer to this prestigious power hitter is easier said than done though, and although his homer pace should fall off a bit as the season progresses, Abreu is the real deal. One of the most impressive things about Abreu is his ability to use the whole field, especially when he hits for power. Check out his 2014 spray chart below.

FanGraphs Spray Chart

With Abreu seemingly on his way to rewriting the history books for homers in a rookie season, I thought I would leave you with a couple gifs of his latest moonshots. Enjoy.

jose-abreu
Gif credit: SBNation.com
Abreu_s_go-ahead_homer
Gif credit: Fansided

Monday Tidbits: Jake Arrieta fired 7 2/3 no-hit innings with 10 strikeouts against the Boston Red Sox before serving up a single to Stephen Drew. The 28-year-old now sports a 1.81 ERA and is somehow unowned in 33% of Y! leagues. Evan Gattis was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a bulging disc in his back. Carlos Gonzalez (finger) hit off a tee and should return right before or after the All-Star break. Dan Haren allowed only one hit to the Cleveland Indians over seven shutout innings. Sergio Romo was removed from his role as a closer and  Santiago Casilla/Jeremy Affeldt will share save chances going forward. Jordan Zimmermann fired six innings of two-run ball to earn another win. He finished June with a 1.43 ERA over five starts. Danny Duffy stifled the Twins to one run over 5 2/3 innings and now sports a 2.60 ERA. Sean Doolittle gave up a walkoff grand slam to Rajai Davis. Even with a couple rough outings, he has plenty of job security. Jesse Hahn hurled five scoreless innings with nine punchouts against the Cincinnati Reds to lower his ERA to 1.95. Taijuan Walker made his 2014 debut and earned a win against the Houston Astros after holding them to three runs in six innings.

Tuesday Tidbits: Rick Porcello tossed his second straight shutout and has a 25 1/3-inning scoreless streak going. Cliff Lee (elbow) threw a simulated game on Tuesday and will begin a minor league rehab assignment on Sunday. Angel Pagan (back) had a setback and will visit a back specialist. Mark Trumbo (foot) is 10-14 days from returning to the Arizona Diamondbacks. One start after his no-hitter, Tim Lincecum blanked the St. Louis Cardinals over eight innings. Brandon Belt (thumb) is hoping to be activated from the DL on Friday. Jose Bautista (hamstring) homered in his first at-bat since returning to the Toronto Blue Jays lineup. Oscar Taveras was recalled from Triple-A Memphis and batted second in his return to the Cardinals lineup. He went 0-3, but he should be picked up in any formats where he is available. Jose Abreu belted his 26th homer of the season and has reached that mark faster than anyone in MLB history. Josh Hamilton snapped a 23-game homerless streak by hitting a solo shot. Paul Goldschmidt broke out of a 1-19 slump by going 2-3 with a steal. Addison Reed blew another save and his leash seems to be getting shorter by the day. If you are speculating for saves, Brad Ziegler makes for a nice add. Joe Smith saved both games of the doubleheader and looks to be the Angels closer for the foreseeable future. David Price further enhanced his trade value after allowing one run and striking out nine over seven innings versus the New York Yankees. The outing did end a five-game streak of double-digit strikeouts, what a bum. Jayson Werth awoke from a long slumber as he went 2-4 and collected three RBI courtesy of his two doubles. Marlon Byrd hit a solo shot and is up to 16 homers for the year. The 64th ranked player in Y! deserves more dap than he receives. Curtis Granderson homered for the second game in a row and is the 39th ranked player over the last 30 days. Kyle Seager went 3-5 with a homer and three RBI while Robinson Cano went 2-4 with three RBI. James Shields was rocked once again after allowing four earned runs in five innings against the Twins. You won’t get proper value trading him now so it’s best to just hold and wait for him to right the ship.

Wednesday Tidbits: Edwin Encarnacion blasted a three-run walkoff home run and took over the MLB lead in RBI (69). Joe Mauer (oblique) was placed on the 15-day DL. Oblique injuries can be easily aggravated so don’t expect Mauer to return for at least 2-4 weeks. Andrew Cashner (shoulder) played catch. Everth Cabrera (hamstring) was placed on the 15-day DL. Considering how bad he’s been this year, it’s safe to drop him in re-draft formats. Brad Boxberger earned his first save of the season for the Tampa Bay Rays and looks to be in the closer committee. Jason Vargas held the Minnesota Twins scoreless over seven innings to drop his ERA to 3.32. Brandon Moss went 4-4 with a solo home run to up his average to a solid .274. Nolan Arenado (finger) will be activated from the DL on Thursday. Tyson Ross tossed a complete game shutout as he allowed three hits, punched out nine Reds, and didn’t surrender a walk for only the second start all year. There’s no way a pitcher with a 2.93 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 111 strikeouts in 116.2 IP should be unowned in 26% of Y! leagues, no matter how hard wins may come by on an awful San Diego Padres team. Gregory Polanco went 2-4 and hit a two-run homer against the D’Backs. The 22-year-old is hitting an impressive .306. Julio Teheran held to New York Mets to one run over seven sterling innings and is now sporting a 2.29 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Zach Putnam earned a win after pitching 1 1/3 scoreless innings against the Angels and appears to be the best bet for saves for the White Sox.  Mike Olt went 2-5 and launched his 11th homer of the season…but he’s still hitting a putrid .150. Leave him on the waiver wire. Adam Wainwright bamboozled the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night as he shut them out of 7 2/3 innings, and although it only came with one strikeout, owners won’t be complaining with a win. Wainwright now owns an incredible 1.89 ERA for the year.

Thanks to FanGraphs, ESPN, and Yahoo for the statistical information. Be sure to comment below with any questions or remarks you have. You can follow me on Twitter @MattMoczy and I’m more than willing to answer any questions you may have. Thanks for reading.

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