I originally wanted to name this piece ‘Chicks Dig the Long Ball’: The Joey Gallo Story. The reality is, everyone digs the long ball, and minor league prospects with power like the 21-year old Gallo possesses are few and far between. Using the 20-80 scouting scale to measure individual tools, there’s no question that Gallo, according to Baseball Prospectus, comes in at an 80 . Having 80-grade power is sexy, but if you can’t make contact at an average rate, it’s akin to a player having world class speed; “You can’t steal first base!” So that, the ability to make contact, will be the true Joey Gallo Story when it’s all said and done.

Say what you will about the late-90’s/early 00’s scoring and home run barrage, the truth of the matter is those days are long gone. Scoring is down across baseball and clearly the frequency in which home runs are hit has curtailed as well. We don’t need to jump in a DeLorean to think back to 2012, but that season saw 16 major-league clubs average at least one home run per game. Last season, we had just four. That’s it. That’s an incredible drop-off in what would already be considered by most the post-steroid era. Why does this matter? It makes Joey Gallo’s best asset that much more attractive to talent evaluators who see a 6’5” 235-pound athlete who can hit the ball like Uncle Rico can throw the pigskin.

Gallo enters 2015 as the Texas Rangers top prospect after bursting on to the scene last season. He was on the radar for some entering 2014, but was regarded as just the 7^th best prospect in the organization, while barely cracking Baseball Prospectus’s Top 100. (He wasn’t in Keith Law’s Top 100 on ESPN entering last season.) He was coming off a season in low-A ball with a 245/.334/.610 slash line, with 165 Ks and 48 walks in 446 plate appearances.

He began last season in high-A and absolutely raked for two months. He improved on the previous season’s K-rate, dropping it all the way down to 26% (from 37% in low-A). He nearly doubled his walk rate as well. Of course, a 26% strike out rate is still high but it’s encouraging when a 20-year old makes adjustments like that, especially one who continues to mash. Gallo homered 21 times in 246 plate appearances, putting up a .323/.463/.735 line, earning a promotion to AA Frisco. It also earned him a trip to The Futures Game where he took home MVP honors for doing this:

The move from A-ball to AA is generally considered the hardest jump for a prospect. Keep that in mind as I throw a wet blanket on the fire that is Joey Gallo. While he continued to hit for power, he hit just.232/.334/.524 at AA with a mind-blowing 115 Ks in 291 plate appearances (39.5%). Yikes.

The young third baseman enters 2015 with a non-roster invite to major league spring training and came in at #11 on Keith Law’s Top 100 last week. Here’s what Law had to say:

“No one in the minors swings as hard or generates as much force on contact as Gallo does, and if he can just hit .230-.240 in the majors he’ll hit 40-45 homers, if not more, with enough patience thrown in to be a 5-WAR player on his bat alone.”

While it’s highly unlikely that he breaks camp with the big club, he needs to be on your radar this season. He clearly still needs seasoning in the minors, and he’ll be served well from the big league experience this spring. He moves well for his size, but a move across the diamond could very well be in his future. He’s currently blocked at third base by someone named Adrian Beltre (never heard of him, personally), but he did play some outfield in the Fall Instructional League.

When you run Gallo through Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA system, the player comparisons range from former Braves can’t-miss power prospect Cody Johnson (spoiler alert: he missed) to NL MVP runner-up Giancarlo Stanton. That’s a huge range of outcomes for Gallo, but my guess is his long term best case scenario is more like Chris Davis/Mark Reynolds or, if he can command the zone, Adam Dunn. I do know that if he gets called up mid-season that he’ll be all the rage, but temper your expectations for the youngster.