One of the major free agent arms is now officially off the market after the Detroit Tigers signed Jordan Zimmermann to a five-year, 110 million dollar contract. The move was the second significant move for the Tigers and new general manager Al Avila. The club also traded a minor league infielder and a player to be named later for closer Francisco Rodriguez. The move might end up being the Tigers last significant move as the 22-million per season salary will be pretty significant.

What are the Tigers thinking?

The Tigers had one of the best rotations in baseball in 2014 when they had Max Scherzer and David Price in the same rotation with Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez. Scherzer and Price obviously moved on and the Tigers struggled through most of 2015. Still, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic if you are a Tigers fan. Verlander was unhealthy for most of the first half of the season, but he had a strong season after the all-star break (5-6, 103.0 INN, 2.80 ERA).

If Anibal Sanchez can return to his pre-2015 success and Daniel Norris can build on his success last season, then the Tigers really have something. Zimmermann became a full-time starter in 2012 and since then has had at least 32 starts and 195 innings every season. He may not have not been the sexiest pitcher on the market, but he may be the most consistent. The Tigers need some consistency. They have enough talented players to make another go at it this season.

The problem comes in the fact that the Tigers now have a ton of money tied into their starting rotation. If you combine the salaries for Zimmermann, Verlander, and Sanchez alone (66.8 million) you can see that the Tigers are really gambling on the next few seasons. It certainly makes sense from their end. Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Francisco Rodriguez are at the end of their prime. They might not be prime-time players by the end of the 2017 season. Avila is doing whatever he can to maximize the years they have left. That certainly makes sense.

What this deal means for you

We could get intricate if we want, but there are really only two numbers you need to focus on when pitchers switch teams. Most people focus on the park effects first and that is certainly the traditional place to go, but the most important number is the defense efficiency rating. We could go back a number of seasons, but looking at 2015 will probably suffice for now.

Detroit: .690 (15th)

Washington: .685 (22nd)

I was actually surprised to see that the Tigers were better than the Nationals last season. However, it would help explain why the Nationals underachieved last season. There was a ton of talent on that pitching staff and with the exception of Scherzer, they didn’t seem to do too well. That included Zimmermann of course, but there are good reasons to be optimistic. He will have an improved defense behind him and good run support. The home ballpark might be another matter:

Detroit: 95 (0ne year), 98 (multi-year)

Washington: 103 (one year), 103 (multi-year)

For those that are not familiar with park factors (via baseball-reference.com), a 100 means that the park is an average run scoring environment. Anything over 100 means it is better for hitters than it is for pitchers. So, Zimmermann is moving from an environment that is slightly better for hitters than it is for pitchers. Now, it will be the reverse. When you add a slightly better ballpark with a slightly better defense behind him. That might be enough to elevate him into the top twenty among starting pitchers.