2016 Fantasy Baseball: Draft-Only Recap and Analysis
When you have upwards of 10-15 daily- and weekly-move leagues every year, it’s nice to have a few that don’t require hours upon hours of research, player movement, trade talks, etc.
That’s where draft-only leagues come in.
Draft-only leagues are exactly that: you draft a team with no other roster moves required. There are no lineup changes, waiver adds or trades. It provides all the fun and skill of drafting a championship-caliber team without the time and effort it takes to manage one all season long. For someone like me who plays in so many leagues, these are PERFECT. I can hone my drafting skills — something that mock drafts continue to provide less and less of — yet still have a chance to win money, and of course, earn bragging rights over my peers.
2016 is the second straight year where I’ve set up these drafts and welcomed anyone on Twitter to join. Wednesday night’s was the third and final one that I’ve hosted, and it featured 12 outstanding competitors — a mix of some of the fantasy industry’s best writers as well as a knowledgeable group of Twitter followers and friends.
THE PLAYERS (in order of draft with site affiliation and Twitter handle)
- Walter Kuberski – Fantistics – @WalterKuberski
- Nick Tasso – Daily Fantasy Cafe – @theinefficient2
- Fabian Taylor – SoCalledFantasyExperts – @CanucksRule247
- Jesse Manginelli – Friend/Follower – @jessect6
- Smokey – Razzball – @Smokey_Loogy
- Jennifer Warner – Razzball – @Soxfan012
- Seth Klein (myself) – The Fantasy Fix – @SethDaSportsMan
- Adam Estrada – Friend/Follower – @BigInDaStreetz
- David Kerr – Fantasy Alarm – @AskROTOBaseball
- Jimmy Burger – formerly of Top Team Fantasy – @Jimmy_Burger21
- Tyler Polhill – Leroy Radio – @TWPolhill
- Jesse Feldman – Friend/Follower – @messyflex
THE RULES
This league features 5×5 rotisserie scoring. The hitting categories are HR, RBI, R, SB, OPS and the pitching categories are ERA, WHIP, K, SV, QS. We had 26 rounds to fill our rosters, which required the following spots to be filled: 2 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 5 OF, MI, CI, 2 UTIL, 11 P.
All stats are accumulated throughout the entire season. If someone gets injured or demoted, that’s just bad luck, but they cannot be replaced. Players are drafted accordingly. Guys with extensive injury histories fell lower than normal. Players returning from Tommy John weren’t picked up till the very late rounds. Also, because the draft occurred with a little less than a month till Opening Day, there are still many position battles to be won, thus making owners speculate more than they would normally have to if it were closer to the start of the season.
What follows will be breakdown of each round, though I won’t list every single pick since that would probably bore you to death by the time we got to Round 14.
ROUND 1
For this round I’ll list every pick so we can get the ball rolling. It’s also always interesting to see who lines up with their actual average draft position (ADP), and if they didn’t, why. Every site can be a little different when it comes to ADP, but since this draft was on ESPN, I’ll be referring to their list.
There were no surprises in the top four. Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, Bryce Harper and Clayton Kershaw went in the same order as their ADP. The consensus No. 5 player, Josh Donaldson, was skipped over by Smokey, who opted to go with arguably the game’s biggest slugger in Giancarlo Stanton. There are always injury concerns with Stanton, and he is coming off hand surgery, but if healthy he can be a 50-homer guy, so I have no issues with the pick there. Donaldson didn’t last long, however, and he was off the board to Jennifer with the next pick.
I then chose Nolan Arenado over two players with a higher ADP in Jose Altuve and Andrew McCutchen. I love both of those players, but since this is an OPS league I prefer Arenado over Altuve. Arenado’s poor OBP is not exposed as much here and I can find plenty of stolen bases later. There were very few surprises following that pick, as it went Carlos Correa, Manny Machado, Altuve, Edwin Encarnacion, Anthony Rizzo. Encarnacion and Rizzo moved up a few spots from their actual ADPs (Nos. 14 and 18), but I actually have both as borderline first-rounders, so no qualms there.
ROUND 2
Jesse F. nabbed Kris Bryant with the first pick of the second round, pairing him with Cubs teammate Anthony Rizzo. I like this move a lot, as it gives him two 30-homer threats who will also chip in 10-15 steals each.
Miguel Cabrera continues to be undervalued in drafts this year with an ADP of 15. He went off the board two spots later to Adam at pick 17. I’ve personally drafted Miggy in multiple leagues this year and I feel that value is too hard to pass up. He missed 43 games last year, so many people forget that he actually won the AL batting crown, hitting .338. He’s healthy now, and though he’s past his 40-homer days, a 100/30/110/.320 line is very much a possibility. He could be the bargain of fantasy drafts at this moment.
The rest of the round went mostly according to plan, though Nick picked Chris Sale (ADP 22) went before Jake Arrieta (ADP 20), who fell to the third. Of course, I have no issues here whatsoever, as I expect Sale to improve on his 3.41 ERA and doubt Arrieta can fully repeat his numbers from last year.
ROUND 3
I was surprised to see new Tiger Justin Upton go ahead of J.D. Martinez, who finished eighth in the AL in HR last year. I really like Detroit as a landing spot for Upton, but there’s no reason to think Martinez can’t launch another 35+ homers and hit .270, even if there is some expected BABIP (.339) regression. I think people are being lured in by Upton’s 19 SB last year, but that’s total should dip.
We saw some combo players go with the sixth, seventh and ninth picks of the round. Jennifer took Starling Marte, I took George Springer and David chose Charlie Blackmon. All three players have the ability to hit 15-30 HR with 30+ SB. I’ll admit I was a little weary of selecting Springer due to the amount of injuries he’s racked up early in his career, but the upside was worth it to me. Fingers crossed.
ROUND 4
This round featured five starting pitchers, including three of the last four AL Cy Young Award winners in Dallas Keuchel, Corey Kluber and David Price. Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke were the other two hurlers taken. Miguel Sano, a rookie sensation from a season ago, went with the 39th overall pick to Jimmy. In a two UTIL spot format, I love that pick, but owners in leagues that only employ one UTIL spot should be aware that manager Paul Molitor said Sano won’t be playing the field at all this season, so your flexibility will be limited.
ROUND 5
A possible platoon has caused Kyle Schwarber to drop a little in drafts, but if you think the Cubs are keeping him out of the lineup, you’re not thinking clearly. That said, I’m not too high on drafting catchers this early, especially when you can’t use his OF eligibility in this format, but Tyler is off to a great start, adding the Cubs sophomore to the slugging duo of Chris Davis and Encarnacion and pairing them with aces Kluber and Jacob deGrom.
ROUND 6
I let the draft room know my displeasure when Francisco Lindor was taken one pick ahead of Troy Tulowitzki, and I stand by that. Tulo has slightly less value in this format due to his lengthy injury history, but we’ve seen what he can do with limited at-bats. In 2014, he hit 21 HR in just 315 at-bats, in 2013 he hit 25 HR in 446 AB and in 2010 he smacked 27 dingers in only 470 AB. Lindor had a fantastic rookie season, slashing .313/.353/.482 with 12 HR, 50 RBI, 50 R and 12 SB, but those numbers go against what he did in the minor leagues. The runs and swipes should be there, but I think he’s more of a .280 guy who can hit 10-15 HR in a full season. Tulo’s potential with a whole year in Toronto is limitless…if he can stave off injury, of course.
The first two closers went off the board here as well, with David taking Kenley Jansen as I opted to go with Wade Davis.
ROUND 7
The Jansen and Davis picks ignited a little closer run, as Fabian, Jesse M. and Jesse F. chose Cody Allen, Trevor Rosenthal and Ken Giles, respectively.
Some oldie-but-goodies were also selected, with Jennifer and I taking two 36-year-olds in Adrian Beltre and Albert Pujols. It’s funny, because Jimmy grabbed Sonny Gray in this round, and Sonny looks like he’s 14.
ROUND 8
Mets closer Jeurys Familia went to Smokey with pick 92, and Jesse M. followed suit by taking the other New York closer, Yankees’ flame thrower Aroldis Chapman. I actually love Chapman’s value here despite his 30-game suspension, as he should still see 30+ saves with 90-110 K. He missed 35 in 2014 after he was hit by a comebacker in spring training and still racked up 36 saves and 106 K.
ROUND 9
This is where teams began to fill statistical and positional needs.
Walter led off with Tyson Ross, giving him a formidable trio of Ross, Chris Archer and Johnny Cueto. By securing three No. 1 starters, it would allow him to wait till Round 17 to select another one (Taijuan Walker).
Fabian added his first of two required catchers by snagging Brian McCann, who is the biggest power threat at the position not named Buster Posey.
Smokey made Jacoby Ellsbury his own, adding some much-needed stolen bases to his power-heavy lineup.
Adam also went the stolen base route by taking Ben Revere, and he looks to be securing a top three finish in that category with Revere, Correa, Jason Heyward and DJ LeMahieu on board.
David and Jesse F. both added their second closers, in the Pirates’ Mark Melancon and the Cubs’ Hector Rondon, while Jimmy nabbed his first finisher in the Tigers’ David Robertson.
The one curious pick that stood out to me was Lucas Duda, who was chosen by Jesse M., who reached a full FOUR rounds above his ADP to snag the Mets first baseman. Not only could he have waited at least one more time around, but he now has four CIs among his first four batters, including three 1Bs (Joey Votto, Prince Fielder).
ROUND 10
Cardinals starters Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha went off the board to Tyler and Adam. Both pitched very well last year but I have slight (yes, just slight) concerns about both. Martinez had a shoulder injury that sidelined him for his last couple of starts. Though Tommy John surgeries are the new “craze”, players come back from them a lot easier than shoulder injuries. I still like Martinez, but there are some red flags. The same goes for Wacha, whose pretty good looking 3.38 ERA also came with a 3.88 xFIP, which is a little worrisome. He also doesn’t strikeout many batters.
If Michael Brantley only ends up missing a couple of weeks while recovering from a torn labrum, Jimmy has a steal at pick No. 111.
Since there are still 16 more rounds to cover, I’m gonna be doing some quick hitters for the remaining picks. These are guys I felt stood out, whether good or bad. So, here goes…
It was interesting to see Travis d’Arnaud (Jesse M.) go ahead of Salvador Perez (Jimmy) in the 11th round. Perez is the epitome of consistency among backstops and he’s improved his power stroke in each of the last four years, hitting 11, 13, 17 and 21 HR, respectively. Perez is a rare catcher that is guaranteed to play 130 games or more no matter what. d’Arnaud, on the other hand, has endured a litany of injuries over his three seasons in the big leagues. With this pick as well as that Duda pick, Jesse M. really seems to be banking on the Mets offense.
Lance McCullers at pick 142 is excellent value for Fabian. The Astros righty was excellent last season and good be in for an even better 2016 … I love the value on Steven Matz as well. Of course, none other than Jesse M. took the Mets starter … Jose Quintana was made for leagues that use quality starts over wins, and Smokey got a solid pick there … I’m not a fan of Billy Hamilton whatsoever, I would rather have Delino DeShields two rounds later (Smokey got him). I’ve written articles the past two seasons of why he’s so overrated in fantasy…buuuuut for Nick’s build, it’s actually a good pick because it really shoots him up the stolen base ladder.
David grabbed Korean import Byung Ho Park with pick 153, and it will be interesting to see what he can do stateside. It’s a good spot to take him since he wasn’t risking passing up tremendous upside with the other guys still available … I love the Jonathan Schoop pick here for Jesse F. He won’t provide a good BA, but this is an OPS league, and the potential for 25-30 HR at the second base position is excellent at this stage of the draft.
Round 14 saw a few former fantasy studs make their appearance. David took Justin Verlander while Nick selected hometown hero Hanley Ramirez. I like Verlander as a value pick this year. I don’t like Hanley.
Gerardo Parra (pick No. 196) signed with the Rockies and that immediately gives him great mid-round value. I was actually a little jealous of Jesse M. after he took him. Parra could hit 20 HR and steal 25 bases playing half his games at Coors.
The next two rounds saw some of the last remaining closers fly off the board. Drew Storen (Jimmy) and Santiago Casilla (Jesse F.) were taken in Round 17, as was potential closer Arodys Vizcaino (Tyler). I took Will Smith in the 18th, who is battling with Jeremy Jeffress for the Brewers ninth-inning job. We’ve officially reached the point where speculative saves are becoming a commodity.
Yu Darvish finally went off the board in Round 19. It’s a good spot for David to take him since he’s not sacrificing much.
Round 20 was officially the “Catcher Round” as six got removed from the available pool. Welington Castillo (Jesse F.), Francisco Cervelli (David), Yadier Molina (Adam), Wilson Ramos (me), Yan Gomes (Jennifer) and Derek Norris (Smokey) were all selected.
Some promising young pitchers were picked in the 23rd round, highlighted by Kevin Gausman (Fabian), Jimmy Nelson (David) and Alex Wood (Jimmy). Jesse F. took two-time Minor League Pitcher of the Year Jose Berrios to cap the round. He may not break camp with the Twins, but could be a force in their rotation by July.
Walter got a bit of a steal leading off the penultimate round with Reds’ closer J.J. Hoover. The Reds aren’t expected to win many games, but Hoover will likely begin the season as their closer, and in a roto league, it’s all about total stats. Any saves he gets from Hoover will be gladly accepted in the 26th round … I like some of the other picks in this round too, including Nick grabbing Vincent Velasquez and Jesse M. taking Henry Owens. Both should be in their team’s respective rotations at some point and offer high-K ceilings.
The final round was comprised of just three hitters, with C.J. Cron being the one that stood out to me the most. Now in a full-time role, the Angels’ 1B/DH could supply Smokey with 25 HR and 80 RBI.