As we finish the lineup series we are reminded that data is a complex thing. The averages we see for the teams come over a three year period where many of the players were playing somewhere else at some point in the three years. So, putting them together doesn’t necessarily mean that any team is the worst or best necessarily. As a famous stock broker once said, past performance is not proof of future results. All that being said, we can get a general idea as to the relative quality of each lineup. Therefore, individual players may benefit or not based on the quality of players around him.

We are using three Baseball Prospectus statistics today. The first is their version of wins above replacement (WARP). We use that to gauge the overall quality of the lineup. There are limitations there of course. Younger teams tend to have lower WARP scores than more experienced teams. The second statistic is total average. It tends to do better with younger players as it is simply calculates everything a player does offensively and adapts it to look like batting average. .260 is the league average. Finally, we get fielding runs above average (FRAA). We look at that to determine whether pitchers on those teams would benefit or be hurt by the fielding behind them.

Arizona Diamondbacks

WARP: 14.0 (12th)

TAV: .275 (10th)

FRAA: -18.9 (15th)

Key Changes

The biggest change came in the front office. The Dbacks are finally joining the 21st century. Mike Hazen was an assistant with the Red Sox before becoming general manager. He’s young and a part of the new generation of baseball. It will take time to transform the team. They dealt Jean Segura to the Mariners while his value was at its peak. That’s a start as Taijuan Walker should help the Dbacks pitching move out of the cellar.

Unfinished Business

The Dbacks are going to have to play the long game for this to work. ESPN’s Keith Law said they had the worst farm system in the big leagues. So, this is a lot more involved than simply putting a decent guy at each position. On the positive side, should David Peralta and A.J. Pollock remain healthy they should be passable offensively. They could also deal some of these guys to get some much needed minor league prospects.

Prognosis

Paul Goldschmidt is the only prime time player they got. The question here is whether they play the game of building around him or whether they use him as a chip to build.

Colorado Rockies

WARP: 21.8 (5th)

TAV: .273 (11th)

FRAA: 15.8 (3rd)

Key Changes

It’s hard to figure out what the Rockies are thinking. Last season they added Gerardo Parra to a long term contract and now he’s an expensive fourth outfielder. This offseason they added Ian Desmond, but are moving him to first base. As an offensive player he is marginal in value. His value came from his ability to play shortstop, second base, third base, left field, and center field. So, they put him at first base. He’ll put up some numbers, but it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

Unfinished Business

The Rockies are in no man’s land. They aren’t quite good enough to compete for the playoffs, but not bad enough to go for the cellar. At the moment they seem to be leaning towards building on what they have. Carlos Gonzalez may sign an extension and the same may happen with Charlie Blackmon. Of course, they could go the other way and trade them for prospects.

Prognosis

The Rockies need to fish or cut bait. They seem to be like the White Sox where they keep adding random pieces in the hopes that it will be enough to get a wild card berth. If they were an American League team it might be, but it’s not happening in the senior circuit.

Los Angeles Dodgers

WARP: 25.2 (3rd)

TAV: .296 (1st)

FRAA: 21.2 (2nd)

Key Changes

The Dodgers have replaced the Yankees as the kings of spending. They didn’t use any money on position player free agents this time around, but they did throw their weight around when they traded for Tampa Bay Ray second baseman Logan Forsythe. His three year totals are pedestrian, but he has been very good the last two seasons. He has put up a very solid .284 TAV to go along with 4.6 combined WARP. That’s better than incumbent Enrique Hernandez, but I don’t know if it warranted their number two rated prospect.

Unfinished Business

I had a nice, pithy write up for the Dodgers prior to the Forsythe trade earlier this week. Now, we can just simply substitute another. When a team has over 200 million to spend, they can afford to be sloppy when it comes to value. Forsythe is better than Hernandez and likely better than what Utley would have been. The question is whether it was worth the costs. The Rays are certainly a lot happier today than they were a week ago.

Prognosis

Most fans don’t think of the Dodgers when they think of great lineups in history. There is just too much inefficiency to come to that conclusion. If Yasiel Puig gets his head on straight you can’t find a single hole out there. That’s a big if of course, but even without him they have enough fire power to win the division hands down.

San Diego Padres

WARP: 7.9 (15th)

TAV: .256 (15th)

FRAA: 1.5 (8th)

Key Changes

The Padres traded away Derek Norris in favor of rookie Austin Hedges. Hedges has a stellar defensive reputation, but his career .181 TAV is a bit disjarring. There is no way he produces that this season. He was a monster in AAA last year. Even if he produces just a .250 TAV then they are somewhere closer to the pack. Their entire starting outfield is different than what they opened with in 2016. The same is true at shortstop and second base. Youth is always unpredictable.

Unfinished Business

It’s a race to the bottom in the National League. One of the reasons why there are so many teams with astronomical numbers is that there are teams actively trying not to win. The Padres need a few seasons of high picks to get back into contention.

Prognosis

Nothing is ever as good or as bad as it seems. The numbers above make San Diego look like they are destined to lose 120 games. That won’t happen. Individual players will improve and will establish themselves as legitimate big league players. Others won’t. That’s the way these things normally work.

San Francisco Giants

WARP: 25.4 (2nd)

TAV: .286 (3rd)

FRAA: 39.3 (1st)

Key Changes

There were no changes for a team that faded big time down the stretch. They added Eduardo Nunez around the trade deadline and Jarrett Parker takes over for Angel Pagan in left field. Otherwise, it’s the same team it has been for the past several seasons. When your worst regular carries a .260 TAV you are bound to be pretty good, but they don’t have the top end talent that the Dodgers have.

Unfinished Business

They are going to war with what they have. They spent big money to remake their bullpen and that seems to be the major investment this time around.

Prognosis

Buster Posey could be a Hall of Famer in the making, but the rest of the lineup reads as pretty good, but not great. Their pitching will carry them as far as they go.