Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: April 21, 2016
Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Thursday’s 13-game all day slate on DraftKings. We’ve also added a few quick tutorials for you to check out from our partners at RotoQL to help guide your research for today’s games. To learn more about RotoQL or to take a look at the packages they have to offer, please follow this link – it will truly help you become a better daily fantasy baseball player.
The weather outlook isn’t as bad today as it was yesterday, but be sure to check your sources for weather updates prior to lineup locks to make sure all of your players will get some play. Many times you can follow each team’s Twitter feed, but I think Kevin Roth really does a fine job and think you could give him a follow if you don’t already.
PITCHING PERSPECTIVE
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There are plenty of big name pitchers in action tonight, so let’s start by narrowing down the field and eliminating a few names.
The first to go is Max Scherzer. He has pitched well so far with his strikeout rate being a tad off as the only issue you could really point to. He’s priced well below Clayton Kershaw but well above everyone else, and he’s just not that much better than all the other non-Kershaw options. His matchup and ball park are fine, he’s just over-priced.
Next up, David Price. Price is the next most expensive pitcher after Kershaw and Scherzer. Don’t let his 4.50 ERA fool you; he has been excellent so far this season. His xFIP sits at 2.07, and his strikeout and walk rates are superb through three starts. The main problem is again price, but he’s also starting at home, which is where he’s had his trouble early in the season.
And finally, say adios to Dallas Keuchel. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs recently detailed the reasons to worry about Keuchel. Keuchel has posted a good start since Cameron’s post, but one of his biggest issues, velocity, was still an issue in that start. Throw in the tough matchup on the road against the Rangers, and Keuchel is a stay-away.
As for Kershaw, he’s really hard to pass up despite the high price tag. If you want to nitpick, his strikeouts and velocity are down a bit in the early going but are still safely better than average. But he’s been ruthlessly efficient in his first three starts issuing only two walks and throwing less than 300 total pitches while throwing 22 innings over the three starts. He’s facing the Braves today who have the worst wOBA in the league so far against LHP. Fade at your own risk.
If you’re passing on Kershaw or if you’re somehow paying up big for two starters, Jake Arrieta, Gerrit Cole and Johnny Cueto are the non-Kershaw expensive options to consider. Arrieta has unquestionably been the best of that trio so far. Yes, his 1.23 ERA is driven by some luck and he’s subject to some regression. But he also has the best strikeout rate and best walk rate of the trio. The only question is whether you want to pay $1,000 more for him as opposed to Cueto. I think I can throw Cole out because he has struggled with his control and is likely to be highly owned against the Padres. But savings of a grand might be worth the downgrade from Arrieta to Cueto.
As for value options, Rich Hill, Luis Severino and Brandon Finnegan are your options. On first glance, Finnegan might seem like the best option with a 2.04 ERA while Hill’s ERA is over 4.00 and Severino’s ERA is damn near 6.00. But Finnegan has a ghastly 13.7 percent walk rate and a 4.38 xFIP as a result. He’s the cheapest of the bunch, and he has some upside in his matchup against the Cubs, but he’s definitely a risky option. GPP only.
Severino hasn’t struck too many batters out so far, but his velocity is just fine, so at least a league average strikeout rate is in the cards. He has also only allowed one walk in 10 2/3 innings, and his first pitch strike percentage and zone percentage are way up from where they were in 11 starts last year. Of these three value options, Severino is the only one starting for a team that is favored tonight, so he probably makes the most sense of this group for cash games. Severino is facing Hill who is a few hundred bucks cheaper and has racked up strikeouts at a much higher rate through a few starts, but the offense backing Severino is better than the offense backing Hill. Like Finnegan, Hill is more of a GPP option.
STACK OPTIONS
Astros – In one of the higher totals of the slate (8.5), the Astros take on A.J. Griffin of the Rangers as a current -140 favorite. Houston will strike out a ton (24%) against right-handed pitching, but they also own the league’s fourth-best wOBA (.325) and wRC+ (106) against righty hurlers. You can really stack the entire lineup in a variety of ways depending on roster construction, but I’d be focusing on Carlos Correa, Tyler White, Preston Tucker, Colby Rasmus and George Springer in that order. Jose Altuve is a cornerstone to any lineup, so if you can afford his salary, lock him in. Jason Castro is also a nice option with the platoon advantage and a decent history against Griffin if you believe in that sort of thing. Plus ones everywhere in Houston if you need them. More cash than tournament.
Indians/Mariners – The wind is blowing straight out to center at Progressive Field and the Indians/Mariners have a run total of 8.5 at the time of the writing according to Vegas. Monitor the weather in the matchup, but if you feel confident that the rain will hold off, these stacks could play well in larger tournaments as some may be scared off. Seth Smith, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager and Adam Lind stick out on the Mariners’ side, while Kipnis, Lindor and Napoli make for a nice mini-stack on the Indians.
Angels – Southpaw John Danks is on the hill for the White Sox. Right-handers Andrelton Simmons, Yunel Escobar, Mike Trout and Albert Pujols make the most sense considering the run line of nine. C.J. Cron is a fine plus one on the cheaper end, but he may be down in the lineup limiting his at-bats. Weather is a factor here, so keep that in mind.
Royals – Lefties. Do it.
White Sox – Jered Weaver is on the mound for the Angels. Not sure I need more of an argument here to tell you to roll out the White Sox. The top of the order with Adam Eaton, Jimmy Rollins and Jose Abreu makes the most sense.
Tournament Options: Brewers, Athletics, Giants, Marlins (if you’re off Scherzer), Red Sox and Rays are All should be considered if you’re using multiple lineups. Write ups to follow if time permits.
PLAYER RANKINGS
DRAFTKINGS
CATCHER
- Stephen Vogt – $3,200
- Jarrod Saltalamacchia – $3,200
- Jason Castro – $3,100
- Jonathan Lucroy – $3,700
- Curt Casali – $2,600
FIRST BASE
- Adrian Gonzalez – $3,900
- Edwin Encarnacion – $4,800
- Chris Davis – $4,900
- Jose Abreu – $4,500
- Albert Pujols – $4,000
- John Jaso – $2,900
- Wil Myers – $3,400
- C.J. Cron – $2,900
SECOND BASE
- Jose Altuve – $4,900
- Jason Kipnis – $4,400
- Joe Panik – $3,800
- Josh Harrison – $3,900
- Starlin Castro – $3,200
- Chase Utley – $3,300
- Johnny Giovatella – $3,100
THIRD BASE
- Manny Machado – $5,000
- Josh Donaldson – $5,200
- Mike Moustakas – $3,900
- Yunel Escobar – $3,300
- Martin Prado – $2,700
- Luis Valbuena- $3,500
SHORTSTOP
- Carlos Correa – $4,600
- Corey Seager – $3,800
- Jose Iglesias – $2,800
- Jordy Mercer – $2,500
- Francisco Lindor – $3,800
- Andrelton Simmons – $2,900
OUTFIELD
- Bryce Harper – $5,300
- George Springer – $4,700
- Mark Trumbo – $4,200/Miguel Sano $4,200
- Jose Bautista – $5,100
- Ryan Braun – $4,300
- Mookie Betts – $4,700
- Adam Eaton – $4,200
- Matt Joyce – $2,200/Seth Smith – $3,700
- Michael Saunders – $3,100
- Gregory Polanco – $3,800/Kevin Pillar – $3,800
- Yasmany Tomas – $2,600
- Melvin Upton – $3,000
STARTING PITCHER
- Clayton Kershaw – $13,600
- Jake Arrieta – $11,100
- Johnny Cueto – $10,100
- Gerrit Cole – $10,300
- Luis Severino – $7,400
- Rich Hill – $7,000
- Brandon Finnegan – $6,400
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