2014 Fantasy Baseball: Free Agent Fixes
With the season now under way, it’s time to begin glancing at the free agent pool and determining who is worth grabbing and who is worth leaving available. In order to try and cater to as large an audience as I can, I’m going to vary the ownership rates of the players highlighted both within the article and week-to-week. What that means is that there will be players featured that won’t be available in larger leagues that may be available to shallow league gamers, and there will also be player discussed that will be widely available in larger mixed leagues and only leagues that won’t be of use to shallow league gamers. I choose to mention this in the introduction because I can assure you that no one gains any value from comments such as “that guy isn’t available in my league!” While this should go without saying, I’ll say it anyway, the players suggested below shouldn’t be added at the cost of a struggling superstar.
Jenrry Mejia, SP, New York Mets
Ownership: ESPN: 0.6%, Yahoo!: 7%, CBS: 43%
Mejia earned a win in his first start of the season on Thursday against the Reds at Citi Field. His stat line was a mixed bag with him pitching six innings, allowing one earned run on four hits with five walks and eight strikeouts. The walks are not ideal, but wasn’t as wild as they might seem to indicate. FanGraphs credited him with starting two-thirds of the batters he faced with a strike, and 66 of his 101 pitches were thrown for strikes.
The Mets’ hurler is still very young, 24-years old, even though it probably feels like he is older due to reaching the majors in 2010. This fine haired fellow, seriously, look up a Google Image of Mejia and his enviable hair, is a groundball inducing machine. He has just 88.1 innings pitched in his big league career, but he has a staggering groundball rate of 61.1 percent. Make no mistake, though, he’s not a pitch to contact arm that lacks strikeout stuff. The biggest concern for those investing in Mejia is that he’s struggled to stay healthy in his career, but a healthy Mejia has been darn good and there is legit upside here.
Archie Bradley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Ownership: ESPN: 1.2%, Yahoo!: 15%, CBS: 62%
Whether gamers should invest in Bradley at this moment depends almost entirely upon bench size, not league size. The Oklahoman has the upside to be valuable in all leagues thanks to his electric stuff and huge strikeout upside. Unfortunately, he’s going to be eating zeros while the Diamondbacks stall starting the arbitration clock on him. His time in Triple-A Reno has a chance to be very short, though.
The Diamondbacks have stumbled to a 1-7 start, and their pitching has been putrid. Trevor Cahill has made two starts that have spanned a total of 10 innings and he’s managed to walk seven batters and allow 12 hits and seven earned runs in that time on the hill. He’ll get some leash to iron things out, but the same may not be said for Randall Delgado. The former Braves farm hand, and one of the key gets in the Justin Upton deal, won the fifth starter spot in the spring. He made one successful relief appearance in Australia, and then he was knocked around at Coors Field in his first start of the year allowing 10 hits and six earned runs with three walks in four innings. Bradley speculators should be quietly hoping that the Diamondbacks win a few games so that they don’t spiral far enough away from the top of the National League West that they keep Bradley down until June.
Josh Fields, RP, Houston Astros
Ownership: ESPN: 4.6%, Yahoo!: 19%, CBS: 35%
The Astros entered the year with a plan of using a closer-by-committee approach to ending games. Fields received the team’s first save opportunity and worked a perfect inning of work against the Yankees recording one strikeout and nailing down the save. The club’s Rule Five selection prior to the 2013 season made his second appearance on Saturday night against the Angels coming into a 5-1 game in the top of the ninth with the Astros trailing. He struck out the first batter he faced, David Freese, before allowing an infield single to Josh Hamilton and a hit to Howie Kendrick. Fields got out of the inning unscathed by striking out Chris Iannetta and inducing a groundout from Erick Aybar.
Like in his first appearance, he made his second appearance after Chad Qualls had already entered the game. Qualls was a candidate for the committee, and it seems as if Fields has nudged ahead of him in the bullpen pecking order. Fields is no stud, his 4.97 ERA and 5.10 FIP last year will attest to that, but he did strikeout better than a batter-per-inning in 2013 and saves are saves. He also has back end of the bullpen cheddar, throwing what Brooks Baseball classifies as a cutter, in the mid-90s. Fields’ secondary arsenal features a good curveball and a rarely used changeup, and that could leave the right-handed pitcher susceptible to struggles against left-handed batters. Until Jesse Crain (who makes for a nice DL-stash) returns, Fields is the arm to own in the Astros bullpen.
Jonathan Broxton, RP, Cincinnati Reds
Ownership: ESPN: 0.5%, Yahoo!: 20%, CBS: 24%
Reds manager Bryan Price has indicated Broxton is his interim closer in the absence of Aroldis Chapman once Broxton is activated from the disabled list. That time is coming, as Reds beat reporter John Fay tweeted that Broxton will be activated on Tuesday. The big guy isn’t the stud he once was in Los Angeles with the Dodgers, in fact he’s far from it, but as I stated with Fields, saves are saves.
Broxton’s strikeout rate has been below 7.5 K/9 the last three years, albeit in limited work (just 100.1 innings), and his big strikeout days are behind him. His groundball rate was north of 50 percent in 2012, but was just 46.2 percent last year. Ideally he can get his groundball rate back up to his 2012 level to help avoid some of the pitfalls that can come with pitching in homer friendly home ballpark. Regardless, nab Broxton in the hopes of a little over a month’s worth of time working the ninth inning, and be content with a high-three to low-four ERA and below average strikeout totals.
Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota Twins
Ownership: ESPN: 0.7%, Yahoo!: 2%, CBS: 12%
I wrote about Hicks in a Fantasy Fix piece that posted on April 2, so I won’t re-hash what I wrote there. I will re-iterate that I love his tools, love the fact he’s demonstrated the ability to bounce back and make adjustments to struggles in the past, and am infatuated by his plate discipline. Just five games into the 2014 season, Hicks is boasting a four-to-three walk-to-strikeout rate in 21 plate appearances. If he can keep making contact while working walks at a high rate, his plus speed would look mighty good at the top of the Twins order and stealing bases for fantasy squads. Hicks is a nice gamble in large mixed leagues and a must own in AL-only formats.
Grady Sizemore, OF, Boston Red Sox
Ownership: ESPN: 55.4%, Yahoo!: 50%, CBS: 83%
Judging by Sizemore’s ownership rates, people haven’t completely forgotten what a dynamic player he can be when healthy. Expecting a full return to his peak year’s statistical performance is a foolish thought, but fraction of what he did during his best year’s in Cleveland would make him fantasy relevant.
When the center fielder is going right he is working walks at a high rate, hitting for power, and stealing bases. One would imagine knee injuries have sapped most of his stolen base skills, but he has already swiped one bag this year. Gimpy wheels won’t impact his ability to discern balls and strikes, and the owner of a 10.6 percent walk rate in over 4,000 plate appearances has already walked three times in 17 plate appearances. In addition to stealing a base, Sizemore has also reached the seats once. The former Indian hit 107 homers from 2005-2008, and there is little reason to think his power has totally evaporated.
The most exciting thing to happen for Sizemore’s fantasy value is a move up in the order. He hit sixth for the Red Sox in his first three games played, but ascended to the leadoff spot on Saturday. Shane Victorino figures to occupy that spot when he is activated from the disabled list, but it would appear that Sizemore has already impressed Red Sox manager John Farrell. Sizemore should be nearly universally owned while he’s healthy, and while it’s questionable how long he’ll remain intact, there is little not to like about the 31-year old outfielder from a skills and situation stand point.
Casey McGehee, 1B/3B, Miami Marlins
Ownership: ESPN: 9.0%, Yahoo!: 16%, CBS: 34%
McGehee is only first base eligible in ESPN leagues, but that will change soon, and he is eligible at both corners in Yahoo! leagues. He spent last year in Japan playing in the NPB, and he was very good there hitting .292/.376/.515 with 70 walks, 119 strikeouts, and 28 homers in 590 plate appearances. His stellar play earned him a contract with the Marlins for a smidge over $1 million, and he’s now manning the hot corner for the Fish.
At 31-years old and with over 2,000 plate appearances in the Show, we know what McGehee is and isn’t. He’s not a huge power threat, as his single season high in homers is 23, and playing in gigantic Marlins Park won’t do him any favors. He is an opportunist, though, having totaled 104 RBIs back in 2010 for the Brewers. His RBI total from back in 2010 isn’t useful in the slightest bit in projecting what he’ll do with the Marlins, but it is a sly way of pointing out the value of opportunity. The Brewers slotted him fifth in their lineup for 640 plate appearances that year, and voila, fantasy value that was propped up with over 100 RBIs was the result.
In an unexciting Marlins lineup, McGehee has snuck into the cleanup role against left-handed pitchers, hitting behind the lone star level hitter (currently, anyways), Giancarlo Stanton. Against right-handed pitchers he has been slotted fifth. Those are a pair of RBI friendly spots in the order, and McGehee has wasted no time taking advantage of his good fortune driving in 10. He’s only a .258 hitter in his career, but he hit .301 in 2009 and .285 in 2010, and he has a palatable strikeout rate of 17.2 percent in his career, so an average in the .270s isn’t totally out of the question. McGehee is doing his part to make an average north of .270 a possibility by opening the year on a six game hitting streak. Shallow league gamers can continue to let him rot on the waiver wire, but he should be owned across all NL-only leagues and he should be scooped up in larger mixed leagues using a corner infielder where his dual corner eligibility will give him added value.
AL-Only Pick
Leury Garcia, 2B, Chicago White Sox
Ownership: ESPN: 0.0%, Yahoo!: 0%, CBS: 1%
An injury to Gordon Beckham has opened up playing time to both Marcus Semien and Garcia, sort of. Garcia made the club as a utility player, and he got a start at second base when Semien shifted over to third base to cover for an ill Conor Gilaspie on April 2 and 3. Garcia returned to the bench for the White Sox last two games, but he stole a base on Saturday after entering as a pinch runner.
The White Sox acquired Garcia from the Rangers last year in exchange for Alex Rios. The former Rangers prospect is a speedster whose value is tied to his legs. He bested 30 steals each minor league season from 2010-2012, and he stole seven bases in nine chances in 45 games played in the majors last year. Garcia has big league experience in the field at second base, third base, shortstop, and in center field. The White Sox outfield is crowded, so his path to playing time out there isn’t clear, but Beckham and Semien at second base, and Gilaspie at third base, are far from guaranteed playing time if Garcia plays well and proves he gives the club a better chance to win.
The 23-year old strikes out too much for a guy that doesn’t hit for power. Still, Garcia has impact speed, and middle infield options are slim in AL-only formats. The White Sox are clearly a team that won’t be in contention this season, and Garcia should get plenty of opportunities to prove his worth to the club.
NL-Only Pick
Derek Dietrich, 2B, Miami Marlins
Ownership: ESPN: 0.1%, Yahoo!: 0%, CBS: 2%
The Marlins have faced four left-handed starting pitchers in their first six games, and that has led to four starts at the keystone position for Jeff Baker. In the team’s two games against right-handed starters, Dietrich has gotten the nod. With Rafael Furcal on the disabled list, the Marlins are running a platoon at second base and Dietrich is on the favorable side of it.
He hit second in the lineup in his first start, and seventh in his second start, so it’s unclear exactly where he’ll hit in the lineup. Where he ultimately settles in will impact his run production some, but simply being in the lineup and having a pulse is a good start for NL-only relevance at second base. Dietrich has been good for a handful of stolen bases in all three of his full seasons of professional baseball, so speed isn’t a big part of his game, but fantasy owners don’t need to immediately pencil a zero in the stolen base column either.
The thing Dietrich does best is hit for power. Marlins Park is a bad home ballpark for hitting homers, I’ve stated as much when writing about McGehee above. What that means for Dietrich is that he won’t get any cheapies at home. Thankfully, only one of Dietrich’s nine homers last year received the “Just Enough” designation at ESPN’s home run tracker. If Dietrich received over 450 plate appearances for the Marlins, I’d peg him to reach the teens in homers. Since I’m pessimistic Furcal can return from injury and play well, I think that plate appearance threshold is within reach.